(2) To prevent Doraemon from becoming a Terminator: Lessons from history on mindset

Chapter 2: Cooperation and Friction (1910–1931)

World War I and Japanese Expansion

When World War I broke out in Europe in 1914, Japan entered the war based on the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, occupying Jiaozhou Bay in China's Shandong Peninsula—a German leased territory—and the South Sea Islands.
Since the battlefields were primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan suffered little damage; in fact, its economy grew significantly due to wartime demand.

Character Episode: Takaaki Kato (Foreign Minister)
He directed the occupation of the South Sea Islands early in the war and skillfully manipulated diplomacy to secure the mandate for them at the post-war Versailles Treaty.

The Paris Peace Conference and the Racial Equality Proposal

In 1919, Japan became a permanent member of the League of Nations at the Paris Peace Conference.
At the same time, the Japanese delegation proposed the adoption of the “Racial Equality Proposal.” Although this proposal received a majority of votes, it was shelved due to opposition from the United States and Australia.

Note 1: Conflict with the White Australia Policy
At the time, Australia upheld the “White Australia Policy,” making the restriction of non-white immigration a national policy.
Japan's proposal was a pioneering move that anticipated racial equality, but the wall of Western powers was thick.

This event planted a sense of distrust domestically, showing that no matter how much Japan sought “cooperation,” it would not be treated as an “equal.”

The Washington Conference and Disarmament Diplomacy

From 1921 to 1922, the Washington Conference was held, and the Washington Naval Treaty was concluded among the U.S., U.K., Japan, France, and Italy.
The ratio of capital ship holdings was set at 5 for the U.S. and U.K., 3 for Japan, and 1.67 for France and Italy, and Japan accepted significant restrictions.
Meanwhile, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was terminated and replaced by the “Four-Power Treaty.”

Character Episode: Kijuro Shidehara (Foreign Minister)
As a standard-bearer for cooperative diplomacy, Shidehara prioritized avoiding conflict with the United States.
Shidehara's moderate stance, famously stating that “the true victory of diplomacy is to avoid war,” was criticized domestically as weak-kneed diplomacy, but it supported international cooperation.

Note 2: Interests behind disarmament
The U.S. was wary of Japan's naval expansion, and the U.K. desired disarmament due to financial difficulties.
Japan made concessions to maintain relations with the U.S. and U.K., but dissatisfaction accumulated within the military.

The Open Door Policy and the Chinese Market

The United States advocated an “Open Door Policy” toward China, establishing a policy to guarantee equal commercial opportunities for all major powers.
Japan also ostensibly supported this policy, but in reality, it tried to protect its special interests in Manchuria, leading to friction with the United States.

Case Study: The South Manchuria Railway (Mantetsu)
The South Manchuria Railway, built in Manchuria, was considered Japan's economic lifeline, with mines, factories, and farms concentrated along the railway line.
Therefore, while Japan advocated for an “Open Door,” it actually sought to secure exclusive interests.

👉 A Question for the Modern Era
Looking back at later history, the American “Open Door” did not succeed in the Chinese market, and eventually, a Communist-ruled China was born, with U.S.-Japan friction continuing in a different form.
Furthermore, among some researchers, a hypothesis is discussed: did America use Japan as a substitute market instead of the Chinese market where it had failed?
Whether this hypothesis is correct is open to debate, but looking at the subsequent flow of occupation policies and economic support, it cannot be dismissed as mere coincidence.

The Great Depression and the Deterioration of the Situation in China

In 1929, the Great Depression, which started in the U.S., spread throughout the world.
While Japan suffered from a sharp decline in exports and rising unemployment, Chiang Kai-shek of the Nationalist Party in China succeeded in the Northern Expedition, and anti-Japanese sentiment was rising.
In 1931, anti-Japanese movements intensified in Manchuria, and Japan's Kwantung Army began operations under the pretext of calming the situation.

Character Episode: Kanji Ishiwara
Kwantung Army staff officer Ishiwara would later plan and execute the Liutiaohu Incident, triggering the Manchurian Incident.

Implications for the Modern Era

During this era, while Japan was exploring a path of international cooperation, it faced friction with major powers over the Chinese market and interests in Manchuria.
And between the American ideal of an 'Open Door' policy and the Japanese reality of 'securing interests,' the two countries gradually drifted further apart.

If the Chinese market had been opened successfully, could Japan and the U.S. have avoided conflict?
That remains a question posed by history even today.

#History #JapaneseHistory #InternationalRelations #CooperativeDiplomacy #WashingtonConference #WorldWarI #OpenDoorPolicy #GreatDepression #ChinaProblem #ModernHistory

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