[Werewolf Game] "I should attack the Seer, but I'm afraid of failing"... Where does that hesitation come from?

This article assumes the 14-player Ultimate rules for face-to-face Werewolf. (The Seer is considered equivalent to the Fortune Teller.)

On the second day, the board state features a Seer who has gained the trust of the entire village (with a Madman as a rival who has little trust and has declared a Werewolf teammate as human) and a single confirmed Medium.
From the Werewolf perspective, even though they know that "attacking the Seer is the standard move," the threat of the Knight's protection looms.
Moreover, in a 14-player village, a failed attack carries a heavy penalty: "the number of possible executions increases by one" (= giving the village an extra day of leeway).
As a result, Werewolves are forced to make a painful decision between a high-expected-value move (attacking the Seer) and a high-certainty move (attacking the Medium).

This is where humans (I use the katakana term here because "human" is used in the Werewolf game) are prone to falling into one of the following:
loss aversion, status quo bias, analysis paralysis, or regret aversionof these.

Werewolf psychology: It is easy to overestimate the "pain of failure" over expected value.

1) Loss Aversion

Humans are wired to feel "loss" more strongly than an "gain" of the same magnitude.
The "loss" in this situation is not just one failed attack, but...
- The number of lynches increases by one (the Villager faction can afford one more mistake)
- Having to spend a day with both true roles still alive
- Having the Madman's protection exposed
Therefore, even if Werewolves logically understand that "attacking the Seer" is correct, they are easily swayed by the physical sensation that "it will be extremely disadvantageous if protected."

2) Status Quo Bias

As the time spent thinking increases, humans tend to overestimate the losses caused by change, making them feel that choices that do not differ significantly from the present are safer.
Since both attacking the Seer and failing, or attacking the Medium, result in one Seer result being revealed, the value is placed on the increase or decrease in the number of executions.
This leads to avoiding risks, and as a result, it becomes easier to lean toward safe, conservative options (attacking the Medium).

3) Regret Aversion

The regret of "attacking the Seer and failing" is further amplified in team games.
While this doesn't have much impact when playing Werewolf with regular members, there is a possibility of fearing the pursuit of failure when playing as Werewolves with people you are meeting for the first time.
If one would rather regret being held responsible for failing (and consequently losing the game), it is conceivable that they would drift toward a safe attack strategy.
People with gentle personalities are more prone to this tendency.
After all, nobody wants to be scolded.

4) Analysis Paralysis

Similar to the "regret aversion" mentioned above, if you dwell too much on imagining the risks of failure (or perhaps delusions), you may find yourself not wanting to make a decision at all.
In the Werewolf attack phase, no matter how much you think, all that comes up is the fear of failure, making it impossible to make a normal judgment.
Being in a state where you are thinking "What if I fail at attacking the Medium..." when you should only be thinking about what to do if the Seer attack fails is close to analysis paralysis.

Which one should the Knight protect?

The basic answer is the "Seer," but there are conditions.

When it is better to protect the Seer

- When you can build a situation that leads the village to the correct deduction even if the Medium is gone
- When you prioritize so-called white pressure (risk avoidance in preparation for Werewolves making a bold attack)
- When there are many people who seem like villagers even if you cannot increase the number of executions
- When the Werewolves did not think for a long time during the attack phase

When it is better to consider protecting the Medium

- When you want to clearly know whether the person executed was a human or a Werewolf
- When you can build a situation that leads the village to the correct deduction even if the Seer is gone
- When the Werewolves thought for a long time during the attack phase

Utilize the Werewolves' long thinking time

Under the Ultimate Werewolf rules, the process proceeds in the order of Werewolf attack -> Seer -> Medium -> Knight.
It is taboo for the Seer and Knight to think for a long time (because it reveals that the Seer or Knight is still alive, which breaks the game. Do not intentionally think for a long time to signal that you are the real one), but this does not apply to Werewolves. Since at least one Werewolf is alive when the night time arrives, the game will not collapse regardless of whether they think for a long time or not.
For the Knight, the Werewolves' long thinking time is a major piece of deductive material, and it is acceptable to decide the protection target based on it.

When are the Werewolves taking a long time during the attack phase?

・Opinions are split due to absolute confidence
・Opinions are split due to differences in values
・They are yielding the choice to each other
・Everyone is hesitant

A common situation is the back-and-forth between choosing the Seer or the Medium.
People who choose their attack target with absolute confidence will not change their opinion even due to accountability or majority vote, so in this case only, a Seer attack is possible.
In cases where opinions are split due to differences in values, the psychology of wanting to escape accountability for failure due to "regret avoidance" kicks in, making a safe Medium attack more likely.
In cases where everyone is hesitant, loss aversion and analysis paralysis are likely to occur. It is hard to imagine making a high-risk choice after hesitating, so a Medium attack is more likely.
From this, the longer they take to think, the more likely they are to choose a safe attack.

The Knight's third option: Guard no one

By prioritizing increasing the number of executions, one can choose to guard neither. (Werewolves cannot choose this variation because not attacking either the Seer or the Medium is a huge loss.)
If the Seer is attacked, you can guard the Medium the next day, and if the Medium is attacked, you can guard the Seer.
From the Werewolves' perspective, it looks like they won a 50/50 bet, so if the attack goes through, they will likely try to target the other role.
You will definitely lose one of the roles, but there are advantages such as an increase in the number of executions, confirming the Knight's survival, and catching the Werewolves off guard.

What kind of attacks should Werewolves make?

If the Knight is good at grasping human psychology, they are likely to read the attack and interfere.
Therefore, it is good to study human psychology in advance and use it to your advantage to get your attack through.

Specifically:
"Take risks when you're hesitant!"
"Choose the safe one with no time!"
"Pretend to be hesitant on purpose!"

Pretending to be hesitant, in particular, can be a massive bluff against Knights who enjoy mind games, making it easier for attacks to go through.
(The author practiced this at the Momotaro-kai held in Okayama Prefecture and was called "cunning" by a Knight.)

However, if the Knight is not good at grasping psychological states and is systematically guarding the Seer as a standard, the mind game itself cannot be established.
Also, due to the nature of the rules, it is the Werewolves who play their card first, and it goes without saying that the Knight, who can choose their card later, has the advantage in terms of mind games.

Points to note

Although it relates to game etiquette, it is better not to openly use content regarding Werewolf attack times during the discussion time.
It is fine to think about it in your head or fabricate a different reason without disclosing it.
By the way, the author was reprimanded for the above matter.