Document #4 | Energy Transition and Industrial Structure from the Middle Ages to the Modern Era: Why the 'Strong' Always Get Replaced

*This document is a supplementary resource that interprets
'Momentum (Shi)', 'Void and Substance (Xu Shi)', and 'Structural Change'
from Sun Tzu's Art of War through the lens of historical energy transitions.

History is changed not by technology, but by 'energy'

Turning points in history are often spoken of as if they were created by
heroes or inventors.

However, in reality,
changes in energy sources have changed
the very structure of society.

Which energy one can use
has determined the form of production, organizations, warfare, and nations.

Stage 1: The Era of Firewood and Waterwheels (Until the Middle Ages)

Main Energy Sources

・Human labor
・Livestock
・Firewood
・Waterwheels

Firewood was the primary energy source for humanity from prehistoric times until the Industrial Revolution.
・Ancient civilizations (Egypt, China, Rome)

・Medieval Europe
・Edo-period Japan

The characteristic of this era is that

there is a clear upper limit to production volume.
Land is power.
Water rights are power.
Even if the population increases, explosive growth does not occur.

Society was decentralized,
and power was local.

While this era was stable,

the limits of energy efficiency halted growth itself.

Stage 2: Coal and Steam Engines (Industrial Revolution)

Here, the world changes completely.

Coal and steam liberated humans from
'location' and 'natural conditions'.

Steam engines work anywhere as long as there is coal.
Moreover, the energy density is overwhelmingly high.
As a result,
・Factories are consolidated

・Mass production becomes possible
・Cities grow rapidly

The industrial structure shifted from agriculture-centered to industry-centered.

The old powers that had previously controlled land and water rights could not keep up with this change,
and
lost their competitiveness all at once.

Stage 3: The Era of Oil (20th Century)

Oil was lighter, stronger, and more mobile than steam.

Furthermore, oil is not only a fuel but also a 'raw material'.

・Automobiles
・Aircraft
・Chemical industry (synthetic resins, chemical fibers, pharmaceuticals)

Economy and warfare became dominated by

mobility
. Nations became entities that protect energy supply networks,
and geopolitics came to the forefront.

Stage 4: Nuclear Power (Late 20th Century)

Nuclear power has overwhelming energy density.
At first glance, it appeared to be the most 'substantial' (real) energy.

However, at the same time, it entails
・Management costs
・Safety

・Political risks

Nuclear power was

an energy that held a massive power while simultaneously harboring an extremely unstable 'void'

.

Stage 5: Natural Energy and Decentralization (Modern Era)

Solar, wind, hydrogen, etc.

What is important in the modern energy transition is not the power generation volume itself, but
decentralization.・Can be established even on a small scale

・Does not depend on centralization
・Can be optimized for each region

The industrial structure is also shifting from giant factories to a network model.

This is the very philosophy expressed in the 'Energy' (Shi) chapter of Sun Tzu:
'Do not rely on individual strength, but give power to the flow.'
.

Summary of Changes in Industrial Structure

When energy changes, the following always change:

・Method of production
・Form of organization
・Conditions for winners

'Companies that were strong' and 'nations that were dominant' rarely remain as they are.

The more something appeared substantial, the more it becomes a burden in the next era
.

Connection to Sun Tzu

As we have seen so far,
energy transitions and changes in industrial structure
are perfectly consistent with the philosophy of Sun Tzu.

・The source of power is not fixed
・What appears to be real will eventually become empty
・Momentum shifts instantly due to environmental changes

What Sun Tzu taught
was not battlefield tactics.

It was the very principle for reading the structure in which the source of power moves.

Afterword: Changes in Energy Sources and Industrial Development

Human industrial development has always progressed alongside changes in energy sources.
Finally, moving away from Sun Tzu's Art of War, I will examine this from the perspective of 'energy and paradigm shifts'.

From ancient times to the Middle Ages,
the primary energy for human society washuman labor, animal power, and wood such as firewood.
The industries of this era were centered on agriculture and handicrafts, and production scale was limited to regional scopes. Waterwheels and windmills were also used, but their impact was limited and not enough to significantly change the productive capacity of society as a whole.

In the latter half of the 18th century,
steam engines fueled by coalappeared, and the Industrial Revolution occurred. Steam engines enabled the mechanization of factories and rapidly developed industries such as textiles, steel, and railways. Here, for the first time, an industrial society based on mass production began in earnest.

Entering the 20th century,
the leading role in energy shifted tooil and electricity.Oil became the foundation for automobiles, aircraft, and the chemical industry, while electricity became widely used not only in factories but also in home life. In this era, massive industries such as the automotive, electrical, and petrochemical industries were born, and the very structure of the global economy changed significantly.

And now, the world is once again in anenergy transition period.
New energy technologies such as renewable energy like solar and wind, hydrogen energy, battery technology, and small modular reactorsare expanding. Along with this, new industries such as electric vehicles, the battery industry, and AI data centers have begun to emerge.

As is clear from looking back at history, energy change is not just a difference in fuel. It is the driving force that changes industrial structure, economic systems, and even the very appearance of society.

Changes in Energy Sources and Paradigm Shifts

Throughout history, there have been four energy revolutions, each of which has changed the framework of society. Coal created the Industrial Revolution, oil created the automobile society and mass consumption society, and electricity created the information society. These changes are not merely technological innovations, but 'paradigm shifts' that change the basic structure of society.

Currently, the world is again in the midst of an energy transition. Technologies such as renewable energy, batteries, hydrogen, and small modular reactors have begun to be researched and put into practical use as the foundation for the next era. If these become widespread, society may transition into a 'decentralized energy society' where energy is not dependent on a few giant power plants, but where each region and household participates in power generation.

There is a person who envisioned such a future over 100 years ago.
That is the inventorNikola Tesla.
In the 1890s, Tesla announced a grand vision of 'transmitting power wirelessly using the Earth and the atmosphere.' Then, in 1899, he conducted large-scale experiments in Colorado, USA, and advanced research on wireless energy transmission using high-frequency power and large coils (Tesla coils). In this experiment, it was reported that he lit light bulbs dozens of meters away without wires.

Ultimately, the global wireless power network concept was never completed due to funding difficulties and other reasons, but Tesla had envisioned a future of a 'wireless power society' more than 120 years ago.

And in modern times, short-range wireless power transmission has already been put into practical use.
Wireless charging for smartphones, electric toothbrushes, and contactless IC cards are technologies that transmit power without contact based on the principle of electromagnetic induction. Although this is a distance of only a few centimeters, it can be said to be an example of a part of the Tesla vision becoming a reality.

Furthermore, research into wireless power transmission technology on a scale of several meters to several hundred meters is currently underway. Power transmission using microwaves and lasers is expected to be applied to power supply for drones, robots in factories, and even space-based solar power generation.

Of particular note is space-based solar power generation. This is a concept of performing solar power generation in outer space and converting that power into microwaves to send to the ground; if realized, it could become a massive energy source capable of generating power 24 hours a day, regardless of weather. Japan, the United States, China, and others are advancing research in this field.

Looking back at history, civilization has changed every time energy has changed.
Coal created the Industrial Revolution, oil created the automobile society, and electricity created the information society.

And now, humanity stands at the entrance to a paradigm shift caused by the next energy revolution.

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