【Elm Stakes 2026 Full Field Analysis】 Winning strategies for summer dirt graded stakes, calculated from the structure of Sapporo Dirt 1700m

If you view summer racing with the same mindset as the spring GI season, you will find yourself more off-target than you might expect. While there are certainly races where the horses with the highest ability perform as expected, local meetings increasingly see results determined less by 'raw ability' and more by 'how much of that ability can be fully utilized under these specific conditions.' How many weeks into the meeting it is, the moisture content of the dirt, whether the course has changed, the weight structure, whether the horse is shipping in or staying on-site, and the heat on the day—these factors accumulate little by little to create conclusions completely different from those in the spring. What makes summer racing difficult is not simply a lack of information, but the fact that the very axes by which horses should be evaluated change with the season.

The race we are covering this time is the 31st Elm Stakes, to be held on August 8, 2026. It is the 11th race at Sapporo, a 1700-meter dirt race on a right-handed track, an open-class handicap race for three-year-olds and up, classified as a GIII, with a post time of 15:25. While it attracts attention every year as the only dirt graded stakes in the summer Hokkaido series, this race has several unique points of contention not found in other dirt graded stakes. The distance setting of a small 1700-meter track, the constraint of having only 240 meters to the first turn, the difference in preparation between horses staying on-site and those shipping in, and the intense trend of volatility where the winners of the past five years have all been 4th favorite or lower. In this article, we will first organize the essence of the course, then layer on the environmental conditions unique to summer racing, read the development from this year's field composition, and finally provide a comprehensive evaluation of every horse. Setting aside odds and popularity, I want to focus the discussion here on 'ability,' 'suitability for the current conditions,' and 'compatibility with the race development.'

What to grasp first when considering the Elm Stakes

The 2026 Elm Stakes is a right-handed handicap race on the Sapporo dirt 1700-meter course. In the JRA program, it is listed as '3-year-old and up Open, Dirt 1700m, Handicap' and is run as a GIII. The base weights are 54kg for 3-year-olds and 57kg for 4-year-olds and up. Some horses carry 58kg or 59kg based on their earnings. This year's 14 registered horses match the full gate, and all horses are eligible to run.

Because it is a handicap race, it is not a race where results are drastically swayed by the nuances of weight like in a handicap race. However, this year, Natural Rise will carry 59kg, while Perriere and Luxor Cafe will carry 58kg. A difference of 1 to 2kg from 57kg may seem small at first glance, but in a dirt race on a small course, it directly affects stamina consumption during the race. In particular, Natural Rise's 59kg is the heaviest weight assigned to any horse, on top of the fatigue from running consecutive GI-level races like the Teio Sho, Kashiwa Kinen, and February Stakes. Generally, a 1kg difference is considered equivalent to about one length, or about 0.2 seconds; based on this rule of thumb, the 2kg difference between 59kg and 57kg is a handicap of about one length, or about 0.4 seconds.

The only 3-year-old, On the Movie, carries 54kg. Compared to the 57kg for older horses, this is a 3kg difference, an advantage of about 1.5 lengths, or about 0.6 seconds. However, this horse is an up-and-comer that just won a 1-win class dirt race, and whether it can overcome the barrier of a graded stakes based solely on the weight difference comes down to the absolute value of its ability.

Why is the Sapporo dirt 1700 meters prone to upsets?

The Sapporo Racecourse dirt 1700-meter course has its starting point set to the right of the straight in front of the main grandstand, and it is a course that goes exactly one lap around the dirt track. The distance to the first turn is about 240 meters. While standard for a Sapporo dirt course, it is by no means a generous distance when considering the battle for position on a small course.

If a horse in an outer gate tries to secure a position before the first turn, it will be forced to use a considerable amount of energy in the early stages. Conversely, if it holds back, it cannot close the gap with the leaders at the fourth turn of the small course, and it will not be able to reach them in the short 264-meter straight. In other words, this course is structurally advantageous to horses that can handle their early positioning without strain. Horses with the speed to smoothly take a good position and the dexterity to save energy on the turns are likely to dominate the top finishing positions.

Looking back at the Elm Stakes over the past five years, this structure is clearly reflected in the data. In 2025, Perriere won as the 5th favorite; in 2024, Peisha Es won as the 5th favorite; in 2023, Sekifu won as the 6th favorite; in 2022, Full Depth Leader won as the 9th favorite; and in 2021, Suave Aramis won as the 4th favorite. The winners of the last five years have all been 4th favorite or lower. It is not that the top favorites fail, but that the essence of this race is that course suitability and race development compatibility can reverse ability gaps, which is why it is necessary to 'lower the weighting for ability evaluation and increase the weighting for suitability and development.'

In this evaluation model, we adopt a weighting ratio of 25 for ability, 40 for suitability, and 35 for development. The 40 for suitability is broken down into 12 for compatibility with the course shape, 8 for distance suitability, 8 for adaptability to track conditions, 6 for the advantages and disadvantages of the weight structure, and 6 for the compatibility of running style and gate position. The 35 for development is broken down into 15 for compatibility with the assumed pace, 12 for positioning in the formation, and 8 for the jockey's course proficiency. Some may feel uncomfortable with ability only having 25, but the fact that all winners of the past five years have been longshots speaks volumes that ability alone is not enough.

Weather and track: How to read it this year

According to the weather forecast as of August 3, Sapporo on August 8, the day of the race, is expected to have a 40 percent chance of rain, a high of 31 degrees, and a low of 23 degrees. The previous day, the 7th, also has a 30 percent chance of rain, so the possibility of sudden showers cannot be ignored. In the horse racing weather track forecast, the probability of a firm dirt track is 60 percent, so while we will base our analysis on a firm track, we should always keep in mind the possibility of the track becoming muddy.

Temperatures in Sapporo are expected to be somewhat high for early August, and 31 degrees is quite hot for Hokkaido. The meeting is being held during the heat countermeasures period, so the assembly time at the saddling enclosure has been changed to 40 minutes before the start, and the time for walking in the inspection area has also been shortened. With the amount of information that can be gathered in the paddock limited, the ability to quickly determine whether a large horse is sweating or agitated will be tested.

Regarding track conditions, we will structure our evaluation assuming a 50 percent scenario for a firm track, 35 percent for a rough track (from slightly heavy to favoring outside closers), and 15 percent for a wet track (heavy).

The outline of the development seen from this year's field composition

Organizing the running styles of the 14 horses, the favorite to lead is Wayward Act. In the Marine Stakes, it easily took the lead and won by running away. With jockey Runa Funayama, it will likely aim for the same pattern as its previous race. T O Password is also a front-runner; it raced from the middle of the pack in its previous Aharuteke Stakes, but it led and held on for 6th in the Shiwasu Stakes. The color of the race will change significantly depending on whether these two fight for the lead or if Wayward Act goes easily.

The leading group includes Chuwa Chrises, Hiruno Hamburg, Levontulett, and Action Plan. In the middle of the pack are T O Drefong and Omega Guinness. From the rear, Natural Rise, Valsarshall, Luxor Cafe, and Perriere are waiting.

The assumed basic development is a scenario where Wayward Act leads alone. T O Password switched to a closing style from the middle of the pack in its previous Aharuteke Stakes, and it is unlikely that jockey Kohei Matsuyama will force a challenge. In this case, the first 3 furlongs will be in the low 36-second range, and the last 3 furlongs will be in the low 37-second range, making a middle to slow pace the baseline. The lap structure of the Sapporo dirt 1700 meters typically follows a pattern where the pace increases in the early stages due to the battle for position toward the first turn, then settles down on the backstretch, and gradually re-accelerates from the third turn. Since a single front-runner can consciously slow the pace, there is a high possibility of a sustained race on the slower side.

The horses that will benefit most from this development are the front-running Wayward Act and the leading group that can tuck in right behind it. Also, the mid-pack closers that start moving from the third turn and can get into striking distance at the entrance to the straight. A style of saving energy in the rear and closing only in the straight is physically difficult on a 264-meter straight.

How to view Wayward Act

Wayward Act is the one I want to place at the top of my overall evaluation. In his previous race, the Marine Stakes, he easily took the lead, escaped through a high pace, and won by a landslide of 3.5 lengths over the runner-up, Levonturet. The time of 1:42.8 is an excellent figure for the Sapporo Dirt 1700m, and the final 3F time of 37.5 seconds is sufficiently fast for a horse that led the race. In other words, he was able to maintain energy while increasing the pace.

His sire, Maclean's Music, is a US sprint-line stallion with excellent dirt speed ability. He gives the impression of having grown rapidly at the age of 6, and is managed by the Hiroyasu Tanaka stable as a Godolphin-owned horse. The keys are distance suitability and this race's weight. In the Negishi Stakes, he could not stretch out in the 1400m, and essentially, the mile to 1700m is his best distance range. This time, it is the same 1700m as his previous race, so there is no concern about the distance.

The weight is 57kg. Since he won by a landslide carrying 58kg in the previous Marine Stakes, he is even more advantageous this time with 1kg less. However, the previous race was on the Hakodate dirt, and the course shape is slightly different from the Sapporo dirt. Sapporo's straight is slightly longer (Hakodate is about 260m, Sapporo is 264m). This difference is small, but I want to be aware that it becomes slightly easier for closing horses to reach.

There was a withdrawal in the Oasis Stakes, and he won the Marine Stakes two weeks after that. This time, it is also a two-week rotation from the Marine Stakes, so the level of fatigue needs to be checked. He is a large horse weighing 540kg, and sweating and stamina depletion due to the summer heat (forecasted at 31 degrees) are risk factors. The tension of the horse's body in the paddock and the presence or absence of sweating are the most important check items.

The condition for a good performance is that the single-lead escape form does not collapse. If he is challenged by T O Password, the pace will increase, giving the followers a windfall. The gate draw is not yet determined, but it would be ideal to get an inside gate, and even if he gets an outside gate, it will not be a major disadvantage because he has the ability to lead. A good track is best, but he can handle up to a slightly heavy track.

Buying into the momentum of T O Password as an up-and-coming horse

T O Password won the previous Aharteke Stakes as the favorite. The time of 1:35.0 is quite excellent for an open-class level at Tokyo Dirt 1600m, and the final 3F of 36.0 seconds was achieved by closing. He was also stable in the Oasis Stakes two races ago, finishing 2nd, so there is no doubt that he is in his prime.

His sire, Copano Rickey, is a top-class dirt stallion, and his offspring tend to have both leading ability and stamina. At 5 years old, this is the most fulfilling time for him, and his compatibility with jockey Kohei Matsuyama has already been proven in the previous race.

The concern is that he has been performing well at 1600m. Sapporo's 1700m looks like it is only 100m longer, but a 1700m race on a small course is decided by how the race is run during the middle due to the short straight, and the quality is different from a 1600m speed race. In the past, he finished 7th in the Sirius Stakes (2000m) and 10th in the Procyon Stakes (1800m), so the fact that his performance drops when the distance increases is a concern.

Another point is that he will be heading to Hokkaido 9 weeks after his previous race. It is unclear whether the stay setup is ready, and I want to take into account the transport load from Kansai. In the final training, he made final adjustments on the Hakodate dirt course and clocked a total time of 70.2 seconds. It seems he is moving to Sapporo after staying in Hakodate, so it can be assumed that he is accustomed to the Hokkaido climate.

The condition for a good performance is to settle in a good position in the middle of the pack, move from the 3rd corner, and enter the range at the entrance of the straight. If he insists on leading, there is a risk of being forced into a different pace than the previous race.

Natural Rise faces the double hardship of 59kg and fatigue

Natural Rise is the horse with the highest prize money among the entrants. His track record of running consecutive GI-level races, such as 8th in the Teio Sho, 8th in the Kashiwa Kinen, and 7th in the February Stakes, sets him apart from the other entrants. His 2nd place finish in the Japan Dirt Classic also shines. He is by Kizuna, trained by the Keizo Ito stable, and ridden by jockey Takeshi Yokoyama. In terms of absolute ability, he is at the top among the 14 horses.

However, this time he is carrying 59kg. It is the heaviest weight among all horses, 1kg heavier than the 58kg of 2nd place Perriere and 3rd place Luxor Cafe. It is a 2kg difference from the 57kg horses, which, as mentioned earlier, is a handicap of about 1 length. In addition, the rotation of 5 weeks after the Teio Sho suggests the possibility that the fatigue of consecutive GI races has not been fully removed. He has not had results in his last two races, finishing 8th in the Teio Sho and 8th in the Kashiwa Kinen. After two consecutive GI-level exhausting races, coming to Hokkaido with 59kg, even though it is a GIII, smells like a prep race rotation.

There are horses that have performed well carrying 58kg or more in past Elm Stakes, but there are very few precedents for 59kg. While I acknowledge his ability, a discount is necessary under these conditions. If the track gets muddy and becomes a heavy dirt track, the load of 59kg will increase even more. A speed race on a good track still has a possibility, but even so, the conditions for a good performance are narrow. I want to check the weight change and the presence or absence of spirit in the paddock. If it has increased significantly from the 500kg at the time of the previous Teio Sho, it may be a sign of being overweight, and conversely, if it has decreased significantly, it is evidence of exhaustion.

Can Perriere aim for consecutive victories?

Perriere is last year's Elm Stakes winner, and his compatibility with the Sapporo Dirt 1700m has been proven. His sire, Henny Hughes, has produced multiple good performers in past Elm Stakes, such as Sekifu and Full Depth Leader, and his pedigree compatibility with this course is top-class. His compatibility with jockey Daisuke Sasaki is also outstanding, and he won as the 5th favorite last year.

The problem is that his performance since last year's Elm Stakes has been lackluster. With a 14th in the Miyako Stakes, 10th in the Champions Cup, 10th in the February Stakes, and 4th in the Oasis Stakes, he has been struggling in stakes races. He has entered the age of 6, and the possibility that he has passed his peak cannot be denied. However, these defeats were all in high-level GI or GI-level races, and it is a different story when the conditions return to the GIII Elm Stakes. Last year, he also bounced back in the Elm Stakes after a mediocre performance in a GI-level race.

58kg is 1kg heavier than last year, but his skill as a specialist limited to the Sapporo Dirt 1700m stage cannot be underestimated. His 4th place in the Marine Stakes was a form of being caught up in Wayward Act's high-pace escape, and the content is not as bad as the finishing order. The condition for a good performance is a long-sprint battle from a slow pace, not a forward-leaning lap like the previous race. If he gradually pushes his position up from before the 3rd corner and is in the top 3 at the entrance of the straight, he can hold on with his stamina.

Hiruno Hamburg is one of the horses with the steepest upward curve

Hiruno Hamburg is currently on a streak of good performances in the Hokkaido series, finishing 3rd in the Onuma Stakes and 3rd in the Marine Stakes. His sire, Nadal, was a US 2-year-old champion, and his progeny have high aptitude for dirt. He is showing the growth potential of a 4-year-old and has been steadily improving since winning the Kamigamo Stakes in the 3-win class. It is unclear how the jockey change from Yutaka Take to Kenichi Ikezoe will play out, but Ikezoe has plenty of experience on the Sapporo course, so there is no major cause for concern.

With a small physique of around 468kg, the risk of exhaustion due to summer heat is lower compared to larger horses. He has a forward-running style and excels at racing in a good position on the inside. This running style matches the pattern for success on the Sapporo dirt 1700m, and his aptitude can be highly rated.

The concern is his lack of experience in graded stakes. He was soundly defeated in the Heian Stakes, finishing 14th out of 16, so it is unknown whether he can compete at the GIII level, let alone GI level. However, his 3rd place finish in the Marine Stakes was a strong performance where he followed Wayward Act's high-paced lead from a good position and held on in the straight. His final 3-furlong time of 37.6 seconds was among the best in the field, and if the pace slows down, a better finish than his previous race can be expected. The condition for a good performance is being able to secure a good position from an inside draw.

Valtzer Char is a longshot candidate who transforms on bad ground

Valtzer Char has left consistent results in recent dirt graded stakes, finishing 2nd in the Heian Stakes and 4th in the March Stakes. His sire, Makfi, is a turf miler stallion, but this horse is the type that shows his true worth on dirt, and his stamina on soft ground is his weapon. Although he is entering the veteran stage at 7 years old, he maintains stable performance under the management of trainer Noboru Takagi.

His biggest selling point is his closing style, which allows him to use his legs for a long time from the rear, and his strength on bad ground. When he finished 2nd in the Heian Stakes, the track was soft, and he pushed up from 12th place to take 2nd. When he finished 4th in the March Stakes, the track was also soft, and he moved up from waiting in the rear to 7th place. If the Sapporo track becomes soft, the trend of front-runners holding on may break, opening up chances for closers. On a firm track, the short straight is a bottleneck, and it is highly likely he will not reach the frame, but the moment the track becomes soft, his rating will jump significantly.

The condition for a good performance is clear: the track must be soft. If the track is firm, he is a candidate to be crossed out; if soft, a candidate for the frame; if heavy, a strong candidate for the win. Among all the horses, his rating fluctuates the most depending on the track condition.

Luxor Cafe has question marks regarding aptitude

Luxor Cafe is a talented horse with a record of winning the Musashino Stakes and finishing 3rd in the Japan Dirt Classic. His sire, American Pharoah, is a US Triple Crown winner, a pedigree strong on the big dirt stage. Managed by the Noriyuki Hori stable, his absolute ability is among the top in the field.

However, there are many worrying factors this time. First, his previous race was the Yasuda Kinen (turf 1600m) where he finished 11th, a rotation from a different field of turf back to dirt. Second, he is a large horse at 544kg, and there is a risk of exhaustion due to the heat in Hokkaido (forecasted at 31 degrees). Furthermore, he carries a weight of 58kg. There are signs of exhaustion from recent GI-level stamina races, such as finishing 15th in the Champions Cup and 5th in the Saudi Cup.

The biggest problem is that his aptitude for the tight turns of the Sapporo dirt 1700m is unknown. The Musashino Stakes was a race where he closed from behind on the long straight of Tokyo dirt 1600m, and it is not certain he can perform the same race at Sapporo, which has a 264m straight. His 3rd place in the Japan Dirt Classic was at Ohi over 2000m, and the course configuration is completely different. His ability is high, but doubts remain about his suitability for these conditions.

Omega Guinness competes with dexterity

Omega Guinness is a talented horse who won the Green Channel Cup and also has a top-tier record of finishing 5th in the February Stakes. His sire, Logotype, is a mile GI winner, and his progeny are known for their tenacity on dirt. His partnership with jockey Yasunari Iwata is stable, and his running style of being able to use his legs dexterously from mid-pack seems to suit the tight turns of Sapporo.

However, he has lacked brilliance in recent races. He was supported as the 1st favorite in the March Stakes but sank to 7th, hitting a wall where he cannot quite get over the hurdle of graded stakes. He finished 7th in the Musashino Stakes and 4th in the Negishi Stakes; while he has performed well, he cannot quite win. His dexterity in handling a wide range of distances from 1400m to 1800m is a weapon, but the fact that he has no record at Sapporo dirt 1700m should be discounted. The condition for a good performance is securing a good position in mid-pack from a middle draw and having the race unfold so he can move from the 3rd corner.

Levontourette is well-qualified as a Hokkaido specialist

Levontourette has shown stable running in the Hokkaido series with consecutive 2nd place finishes in the Marine Stakes and Onuma Stakes. His sire, Lord Kanaloa, has also produced successful dirt horses, and the combination with his dam's sire, King Kamehameha, has a good balance of power and stamina. He is trained by Yoshito Yahagi and ridden by Yuichi Kitamura.

His 2nd place in the Marine Stakes was 3.5 lengths behind Wayward Act, but he showed more strength than the margin suggested by holding on in the straight after tracking from 3rd position. He has a forward-running style and the dexterity to take a good position, so his aptitude for the tight turns of Sapporo is high.

The concern is that his tendency to not quite win is noticeable. In his last 5 races, he has finished 2nd three times and 3rd or lower twice. He has never won a graded stake. In terms of ability, he is at a level that can handle GIII, but he needs one more step of improvement to win. The condition for a good performance is securing a good position from an inside draw and following right behind Wayward Act.

The middle tier of Action Plan, Chuwa Cris Es, and T O Drefong

Action Plan is a front-runner with a track record of finishing 2nd in the March Stakes. As a son of Lord Kanaloa, he has excellent dirt front-running ability, but his poor 14th-place finish in the Heian Stakes last time out is a concern. The jockey change to Shun Hamanaka is not bad, but there is a possibility he could emerge if the track gets soft due to his stamina. He has a proven record on soft tracks, having finished 2nd in the slightly soft March Stakes and 2nd in the slightly soft Sobu Stakes.

Chuwa Chrises is a 4-year-old who won the Alexandrite Stakes at Nakayama by leading and holding on. As a son of Le Vent Se Cœur, he has front-running ability and is well-suited to tight courses. However, his recent performances, including a 9th in the Marine Stakes and a 6th in the March Stakes, have failed to meet expectations, making him a horse with inconsistency due to being in the middle of his development. He can run well if things go his way, but his reliability is low.

T O Drefon is a 7-year-old with a track record of finishing 3rd as a 10th favorite in the 2024 Elm Stakes. As a son of Drefon, he has experience at Sapporo Dirt 1700m, but his recent form is on a downward trend. His 6th place in the Marine Stakes was a decent effort as an 11th favorite, but it is questionable whether he can reach the money in a graded stakes race. The continued partnership with jockey Yoshihiro Furukawa is a positive factor, but overall, he gives the impression of being on the decline.

The unique pair of Joe Medvin and On the Movie

Joe Medvin is a 5-year-old colt by Drefon, and in recent races, he has been used in a wide range of distances from turf sprints to middle distances. Drefon is a sire with strong dirt, short-distance, and power characteristics, so his switch to dirt is understandable, but the rotation of suddenly challenging a 1700m dirt graded stakes from recent turf middle-distance races is unique. He is a large horse weighing 522kg, but he has little track record regarding his distance suitability for 1700m on dirt, and at this point, there is no basis to actively rate him highly. He is a prime candidate to be crossed off.

On the Movie is a 3-year-old with a 54kg weight advantage. He is an up-and-coming horse who just won a 1-win class race over 1700m on the Sapporo dirt last time out. He is a son of Thunder Snow, and while his sire is an overseas GI winner, his progeny's performance in Japan is still limited. His time of 1:43.9 in his last race is excellent for a 1-win class, but considering that the winner Perriere won last year's Elm Stakes in 1:43.5, he will need to shave off more time. Even taking the weight difference into account, the hurdle is high. However, the summer improvement of a 3-year-old should not be underestimated, and he is the type who could pull off an upset as a longshot. Whether growth can be seen in the paddock will be the key.

Final conclusions by scenario

Synthesizing the analysis so far, here are the recommended rankings for each condition.

If the track is firm and the bias is small. Wayward Act's ability to hold on after leading is the most reliable, with T O Password rated second as he comes from mid-pack. Perriere's bid for a repeat win is 3rd, Hiruno Hamburg's persistence in the lead is 4th, and Levonturette's tracking in a good position is 5th. Natural Rise drops to 6th due to carrying 59kg.

If the track is rough and outside closers are effective from a slightly soft surface. Wayward Act is still a strong contender but his reliability drops a notch, and Valtsar's late charge moves into contention. Action Plan's rating also rises due to his stamina, and Perriere's course proficiency comes into play. T O Password's distance concerns increase slightly.

If the track condition suddenly changes to bad. Valtsar becomes the undisputed top candidate. Action Plan also emerges in a stamina-based race, and Wayward Act's ability to hold the lead becomes less reliable due to track fatigue. Natural Rise is heavily discounted due to the combination of 59kg and the stamina drain of a bad track.

The overall ranking, calculated by a weighted average of the three scenarios, has Wayward Act at the top with 80 points, T O Password 2nd with 74 points, Hiruno Hamburg 3rd with 70 points, Levonturette 4th with 69 points, and Perriere 5th with 63 points. The horse whose rating fluctuates the most between conditions is Valtsar, who is rated 9th on a firm track but jumps to 2nd if the track becomes bad. T O Password shows a large fluctuation in the opposite direction, being 2nd on a firm track but dropping to 5th on a bad track.

To add a note about the 3-year-old allowance, On the Movie's 54kg is a 3kg difference compared to the 57kg for older horses. This is equivalent to about 1.5 lengths or about 0.6 seconds. However, since the ability gap is larger than that, I judge that it is difficult to overcome just with the weight difference. For a horse that has just won a 1-win class on dirt to run well in a GIII, an upward surge in ability is required.

Checkpoints you absolutely want to confirm on the day

The top priority is the track condition. Check whether it is firm or slightly soft in the official JRA track information on the morning of the race; if it is firm, focus on Wayward Act, and if it is slightly soft or worse, upgrade the rating of Valtsar.

I want to track the weather from the results of the morning races. If there is a sudden shower, the moisture content of the dirt could change rapidly. If the temperature exceeds 30 degrees, large horses like Wayward Act (540kg) and Luxor Cafe (544kg) face an increased risk of fatigue.

In the paddock, check Wayward Act's body weight as a top priority. Confirm the change from his previous weight of 540kg; if there is a large increase, suspect he is carrying extra weight, and if there is a large decrease, suspect fatigue. Ideally, T O Password's weight should not have changed significantly from his previous 492kg. I want to check if Hiruno Hamburg's small 468kg frame has become too lean. For Natural Rise, see if the fatigue from consecutive GI races is showing in his physique.

During the warm-up canter, I want to see Wayward Act's forward momentum. For a front-runner, the tension during the warm-up is important, and if he is too eager, there is a risk he will pull during the race. It is also worth noting whether T O Password shows a positive attitude during the warm-up.

The actual bias of the track for the day should be confirmed by the results of races 8 through 10. Determine whether the inside or outside is running better, and whether the track favors front-runners or closers, then make final adjustments to the recommended rankings. If the front-runner bias continues, increase the reliability of Wayward Act, and if closers start to win, upgrade the ratings of Valtsar or Omega Guinness.

Do not forget the adjustments after the post positions are finalized. Sapporo Dirt 1700m is a course where good performances from middle gates stand out. In particular, horses that can comfortably take a good position from around gate numbers 3 to 9 are stable, and front-runners in outside gates suffer from distance loss until the first corner. If Wayward Act draws an inside gate, his rating will increase further, while if he draws the far outside gate, a slight discount will be necessary.

In short, I believe this year's Elm Stakes is a race where you should "base your strategy on Wayward Act leading from the front, and swap out the other contenders depending on the track condition." If the track is firm, I would place T O Password and Hiruno Hamburg as candidates for second and third place, and if the track is wet, I would upgrade Valtzarshall and Action Plan. I want to keep Perriere as a contender for the top spots at all times, given his potential to repeat as champion.

This is a race where a horse ranked 4th favorite or lower has won in each of the past five years. Do not blindly trust the top favorites; instead, calmly assess the compatibility between course suitability and the race pace. That is the most reliable way to achieve results in the summer Hokkaido dirt graded stakes.