2026 Semiconductor Companies: The Winner's Portfolio - Seize the Future (Part 3)

Thank you for waiting! The final chapter is finally here.

In Part 1, we explained 'why it's hot (market conditions),' and in Part 2, we covered 'why Japan (strengths).' By now, your mind should be thinking this:

I understand the logic. So, which stocks should I actually buy?

In Part 3, in response to your requests, I will provide a straightforward explanation of their current standing in 2026 and future outlook while naming specific companies.

From the classic 'Yokozuna' (grand champions) to the 'refined artisan companies' that only those in the know are aware of. I have analyzed eight stocks based on a balance of 'offense' and 'defense.'

Now, let's begin the final strategy meeting to make your portfolio the strongest it can be.

2026: 8 'Japanese Treasures' Investors Should Choose

[Part 3] Future Scenarios and In-depth Analysis of Individual Stocks

1. Overall Scenario: 2026 is the Year of 'Selection'

First, here is the weather forecast for the market as a whole. While up until 2025 it was a party where 'anything semiconductor-related goes up,' 2026 has shifted to an 'earnings-driven market.'

• Winning pattern: Companies where the AI special demand is showing up in the numbers as 'actual profit.'

• Losing pattern: Companies that just call themselves 'AI-related' but lack the substance to back it up.

This time, I have narrowed it down to companies that are genuinely profitable or have grounds for explosive growth ahead.

2. [The Classic Three Musketeers] Core Stocks for Your Portfolio

First, the absolute kings of the industry that carry the 'risk of not owning them.'

1. Advantest (6857)

• Tagline: 'The Gatekeeper of HBM. AI cannot function without passing through them.'

• Current status: Demand for testers for AI memory (HBM) is exploding. The stock price is in a high range, but as long as the equation that 'increased HBM production equals more testers needed' holds, I see the upward trend continuing.

• Indicator guide: The growth speed is abnormal, so it is being tolerated. 'Dips' (temporary price drops) are the perfect buying opportunity.

• Future catalysts: The announcement of new testers for next-generation 'HBM4' memory will be a catalyst (a trigger to move the stock price).

② DISCO (6146)

• Tagline: "Cutting, Grinding, Polishing. The God of Physical Processing"

• Current Status: Profit margins are at an extraordinary level for a manufacturing company (over 30%). The more HBM is stacked (piled high), the more thin-grinding processes are required, which benefits DISCO.

• Indicator Guide: The P/E ratio is always high, but this is a premium price for "technology that no other company can possibly imitate." It is a stock that offers peace of mind for long-term holding.

• Future Catalysts: They are making progress in adapting to a new technology called "hybrid bonding," and if they can capture market share here as well, further growth can be expected.

③ Tokyo Electron (8035)

• Tagline: "The Department Store of Semiconductors. No Blind Spots in Any Direction"

• Current Status: They possess equipment for every process, including etching (cutting), film deposition (applying layers), and cleaning. When semiconductors for regular PCs and smartphones recover, not just AI, this company will benefit the most.

• Indicator Guide: Compared to companies like Advantest, it feels relatively undervalued. This is the one to choose if you are aiming for stable growth.

• Future Catalysts: Pillars other than AI, such as next-generation communications (6G) and power semiconductors, are also growing significantly.

3. [High Risk, High Return] Challengers with Explosive Potential

④ Lasertec (6920)

• Tagline: "The Monster with 100% Global Market Share. Price Movements are a Rollercoaster"

• Explanation: They have a monopoly on equipment that detects defects in masks (master plates) used for cutting-edge "EUV lithography." As long as TSMC rushes to produce the 2nm (nanometer) generation, this company is essential.

• Points to Note: Expectations are so high that even a slightly poor earnings report will cause a crash. It is "for those with strong nerves," but the explosive potential when it hits is #1.

⑤ Socionext (6526)

• Tagline: "Behind the scenes of GAFA. The custom chip designer."

• Explanation: When companies like Google or Amazon decide they want to build their own proprietary AI chips, this is the company that helps with the design. They are strong in cutting-edge 2nm generation chip design, and their projects for autonomous vehicles are also increasing.

• Outlook: The stock price jumps whenever news of orders from major clients (hyperscalers) is released.

4. [The Sophisticated Experts] The 'Hidden Gems' Professionals Are Watching Now

⑥ Kokusai Electric (6525)

• Tagline: "The magician of layering. The best partner for memory manufacturing."

• Explanation: They excel at 'batch deposition,' which applies films to many wafers at once. It is a perfect match for products that require 'layering multiple films,' such as HBM, and they have steady orders from Samsung and Micron.

⑧ Oxide (6521)

• Tagline: "The master of light. Niche single-crystal technology."

• Explanation: They produce the single crystals needed for the 'lasers' used in semiconductor inspection equipment and for next-generation 'quantum computers.' Their market capitalization is small, but their technical prowess is national-treasure level. They are an interesting small-cap stock pick for those aiming for a massive breakout.

⑨ Kioxia (285A)

• Tagline: "The revival of Japan's memory. The warehouse keeper of data."

• Explanation: Demand for 'SSDs (NAND),' which store the vast amounts of data generated by AI, is recovering rapidly. While it may not be as flashy as HBM, 'storage space for data' will inevitably run out. If it remains undervalued, it is a great opportunity.

5. Summary of Strategy for Late 2026

1. 'HBM/Back-end' is a hold (long-term holding): Companies like Advantest, Disco, and TOWA (not listed here, but see Part 2) are worth holding onto without letting go, even if there is some volatility.

2. Add 'Infrastructure and Power' to your satellite holdings: Instead of the semiconductors themselves, mixing companies that support the 'surrounding environment,' like Fujikura, into your portfolio provides risk diversification.

3. Don't jump on news: The moment news breaks that 'Company X has a new technology!', you are likely to buy at a high price. The secret is to wait a few days and pick it up once the heat has cooled down.

'As long as humanity doesn't stop using AI, semiconductors won't stop.' Let's ride this massive current and enjoy building our assets!

Thank you so much for sticking with me through this trilogy! I hope this series becomes a 'powerful weapon' in your investment life.

1. Deep Analysis of the 'Royal Road Trio'

① Advantest (6857)

• [Institutional Investor Tactics]

  • Actually, this is the stock that overseas hedge funds are 'most comfortable buying more of.' The short-selling ratio remains at a low level, and there is a massive amount of standby capital waiting to 'buy if it drops.'

  • What they are looking at is 'HBM4 (next-generation standard).' Since inspection time will double with this standard, they calculate that earnings will not peak until 2027.

② Disco (6146)

• [Institutional Investor Tactics]

  • This is a stock that people 'want to sell but can't.' Its technology is so monopolistic that the risk of getting squeezed (forced to cut losses) if you short it is high, so institutional investors also avoid touching it.

  • What to watch is 'exchange rate sensitivity.' Algorithmic selling occurs the moment the yen strengthens, but actual demand (shipments for HBM) is booming regardless of the exchange rate, so'when it drops due to a stronger yen' is the professional's buying opportunity.

③ Tokyo Electron (8035)

• [Institutional Investor Tactics]

  • This tends to move in tandem with Nikkei 225 futures. In other words, when overseas investors want to buy Japanese stocks as a whole, this is the first thing they buy in a basket (bulk purchase).

  • It is characterized by a 'solid floor' due to not only the AI boom but also the firm demand for legacy equipment destined for China. Large-scale investors include it in their portfolios as a 'defensive asset'.

2. Strategy for [High-Risk, High-Return]

4. Lasertec (6920)

• [Institutional Investor Tactics]

  • This is the most dangerous and the most lucrative.

  • The 'short interest ratio' is always high. In other words, many hedge funds are betting that it is 'overvalued and will crash!'

  • However, when strong earnings are released, these short sellers are forced to buy back (cut losses) all at once. This is called a 'short squeeze.' This is when the stock price rises vertically.

5. Socionext (6526)

• [Institutional Investor Tactics]

  • Because the float (shares available for trading in the market) is relatively small, it jumps sharply when specific institutional investors accumulate shares.

  • Recently, there are signs that medium- to long-term funds have been quietly accumulating it in anticipation of demand for 'custom chips' for autonomous driving and data centers.

• [Strategy]

  • This is a 'waiting for news' situation. The initial movement will occur the moment a trial balloon, such as 'received an order from a major US tech company,' is released. It is a smart move to make a probing buy (buying a small amount) while you can.

3. How to target [The Subtle Powerhouses & Hidden Gems]

⑥ Kokusai Electric & ⑦ Oxide

• [Strategy]

  • These two companies are 'niche leaders.'

  • For Kokusai, check the capital expenditure plans of memory manufacturers in K (Korea) and M (USA). If they announce production increases, Kokusai's orders will automatically increase.

  • Oxide will show movement when next-generation themes like 'quantum computing' become a hot topic. Since its market capitalization is small, it is interesting to keep about 5% of your assets as a 'dream allocation.'

Conclusion: To you, who will survive 2026

Semiconductor investing is like an F1 race. It is fast-paced, and a small misjudgment can lead to a crash. However, as long as you grasp 'machine performance (corporate technical strength)' and 'course conditions (market conditions),' there is no market as exciting and high-return as this one.

The 8 companies introduced this time are top racers from the world selection. If you can learn to laugh and say 'It's a bargain sale!' instead of feeling fear when stock prices fall, you are no longer a beginner.

Together, let's ride the wave of the 2026 '1 trillion dollar market' and harvest the fruits of our assets!

Thank you so much for reading this far! If you have any thoughts on the article, please let me know in the comments section. I will read and reply to all of them!

The future belongs only to those who take action. Good Luck!

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[P.S.: My Study Method]
I read many investment books using Kindle Unlimited. Expensive books from Pan Rolling (3,000 yen and up) and 'Market Wizards' are often included in the unlimited reading service, so you can get your money's worth for the monthly fee (980 yen) just by reading one book.

First, try searching for the books you wanted to read with the 30-day free trial.

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[Disclaimer]

This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend buying or selling any specific stock. Future predictions contain uncertain elements and may differ from actual market trends. Please make final investment decisions based on your own judgment and responsibility.