[No.114] Why are programmers decreasing while developers remain?
Every time you hear that "AI will take your job," how would you answer what your job title is?Programmer or Software Developer? Even if they look similar, job postings and statistics tell different stories. An analysis by IEEE Spectrum, citing the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reports that while programmer employment fell by approximately 27.5% from 2023 to 2025, software developer employment only dropped by about 0.3%. While AI cannot be cited as the sole cause, the interpretation that roles focused "only on implementation" are the first to be shaken is directly relevant to current career planning.
Key takeaways from this article
In short, the point of this secondary analysis is that what is most likely to disappear is not the "amount of code written" itself, but positions that lack the ability to design, evaluate, and deliver to customers. While there are examples of growth in areas like information security and AI systems, the causality of the numbers should be verified with primary data.
One step to try this week: Rewrite your scope of responsibility in a single README using the three axes of "design, evaluation, and customer."
The employment contrast shown by IEEE Spectrum
The IEEE Spectrum article that became a topic of discussion in 2026 cites BLS job-specific data while discussing the relationship between entry-level employment and AI. The sharp decline in programmer roles and the near-flat trend for design-oriented software developers—this contrast has become fodder for the "developers are safe" debate on social media.
Programmer roles
are reported to have seen a decrease in employment of approximately 27.5% from 2023 to 2025.
Software developers
saw a decrease of about 0.3% over the same period, remaining nearly flat.
Information security, etc.
are mentioned as examples of growing job categories.
Comments from Professor David Malan of Harvard CS50 are also cited, and it is read in the context that expectations for junior-level staff are rising. However, since the article also touches on factors other than AI, such as the economy and hiring cycles, it is best to avoid oversimplifying it as "AI equals the extinction of programmers."
The real issue — Why "implementation only" is risky
Simple coding is not necessarily incompatible with AI completion or agent generation within an editor; rather, it can be viewed as work that is difficult to explain the value of. As the focus of work shifts to design decisions, security, and the evaluation of AI systems, the language in job postings also changes.
Contract/Freelance — Accepting "implementation only" work is more likely to increase risks regarding unit price and continuity
In-house engineers — Reviews, requirements organization, and customer explanation become part of the evaluation criteria
Juniors — Secondary analysis suggests that more than just "working code" is required compared to before
Common misconceptions
It is also premature to feel relieved by thinking, "If I'm a developer, I won't be replaced by AI." What the reports are contrasting are job labels and employment statistics, not a guarantee of an individual's skill set. What is important is to articulate which axis (design, evaluation, customer) your job description and actual earnings are based on.
One step for this week (checklist)
Being able to explain the difference between "programmer" and "developer" in job postings in your own words will be the foundation for your next interview or project proposal.
Write your current responsibilities in three lines — What are you doing now (is your implementation ratio high?)
Redefine it into a single README — Design / Evaluation (Testing & AI output verification) / Customer (Explanation & Implementation)
Pick up one job description and compare it — Which axis are they looking for?
Update the first sentence of your resume/profile — A single phrase highlighting your strengths as a developer
If you can do this, you will be in a position to answer for yourself, "Which seat is being taken away?"
Relationship with short-form videos
In the picture-story show short 0114, I deliver the impact of the contrast in just over 60 seconds. Here on note, I leave behind the procedures and context, saving them in a format that can be used as material for job changes or contract work decisions. Grabbing the key points in the video and then breaking them down into a README here—this two-step approach is the "Kawaraban" (news sheet) of Edo Tech Kawaraban. Please consider subscribing to the channel and following the profile links for your next survival strategy session.
Reference
Secondary commentary (citing IEEE Spectrum and Harvard CS50 Professor David Malan, and mentioning US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data). The sharp decline in programmer hiring versus the plateauing of software developers. Avoiding simplification of causality, economic conditions are also cited as factors.
Disclaimer
This article is intended for secondary commentary and summary purposes. Please verify figures, periods, and causality with the IEEE Spectrum article and the original BLS data. For investment or career change decisions, please consult primary sources and professionals.
Edo Tech Kawaraban — Survival Strategy in the AI Era