[Photoresist Series Part 16] Photoresist in 2035: Predicting the Market, Technology, and Corporate Landscape
This is the 16th installment of the photoresist series.
Finally, we will connect the technologies, companies, and supply chains we have examined so far.
What will the photoresist industry look like in 2035?
Of course, it is impossible to predict ten years into the future with complete accuracy.
Therefore, instead of a single market size forecast, this time we will
organize the highly probable changes as scenarios based on the technology roadmaps confirmed as of 2026
.
Premise 1: The semiconductor market itself will expand
SEMI and ASML have indicated that the global semiconductor market is on a trajectory to exceed $1 trillion around 2030.
At its 2024 Investor Day, ASML presented a scenario for the semiconductor market from 2025 to 2030 with an average annual growth rate of approximately 9%, and projects a double-digit CAGR for EUV lithography spending in advanced Logic and DRAM.
As the semiconductor market grows, the amount of resist used will naturally increase as well.
However, what is important is
that the number of times lithography is used per wafer will increase more than the number of wafers themselves
.
Miniaturization, multi-layering, an increase in EUV layers, and advanced packaging will drive material demand.
Prediction 1: EUV resists will shift from 'specialty materials' to a core category.
In the first half of the 2020s, EUV resists were positioned as expensive specialty materials used only in a portion of advanced logic.
It is highly likely that the situation will change in the 2030s.
EUV application will expand to
advanced logic
DRAM
HBM-related processes
are expanding.
If High-NA is introduced, more critical layers will shift to EUV.
Therefore, for resist manufacturers in 2035, EUV is likely to be one of the primary revenue sources rather than a "future product."
Prediction 2: High-NA will not replace all layers
High-NA is an extremely expensive technology.
And not every layer requires 8nm-class resolution.
Even in 2035,
High-NA EUV
0.33NA EUV
ArF immersion
KrF
i-line
are highly likely to coexist.
This is important.
Even as technology generations advance, the market for older resists does not necessarily disappear.
Mature lithography will remain for a long time in power semiconductors, analog, MEMS, sensors, and advanced packaging.
In other words, the photoresist market
may become a market where multiple generations grow simultaneously due to the diversification of applications, rather than just the cutting edge growing
.
Prediction 3: CAR and MOR will coexist
"MOR will replace all organic resists"
That perspective is easy to understand, but in reality, it is likely not that simple.
While MOR shows very strong performance in High-NA demonstrations, CAR is also used for contact holes and other applications.
Material selection depends on
lines
holes
pillars
etching materials
underlayer
dose
defectivity
and will change accordingly.
In 2035,
the division of roles between CAR, MOR, and other new materials
may be progressing.
Prediction 4: The boundaries of "resist companies" will disappear
This is a major change.
Traditional resist manufacturers were companies that developed and manufactured liquid materials.
However, with High-NA,
resist
underlayer
hard mask
etch
filtration
dry deposition
metrology
must all be optimized simultaneously.
The 2025 collaboration between JSR/Inpria and Lam Research is symbolic.
Materials companies and equipment companies are moving closer to each other's technological domains.
By 2035,
not the 'photoresist market' but the 'patterning materials and process market'
will see an increase in companies competing in this space.
Prediction 5: Dose determines economic viability
EUV light sources are expensive.
The higher the exposure dose, the longer it takes to process a single wafer.
In other words, resist sensitivity is not merely a chemical property.
It is directly linked to fab throughput and equipment return on investment.
On the other hand, if the dose is lowered too much, there is a possibility that stochastic defects will increase.
Until 2035,
Dose × Defectivity × Roughness
the triangular relationship will remain at the center of material development.
As imec reported in 2026 regarding the improvement of dose response through PEB atmosphere control for MOR, it is expected that sensitivity improvements will progress not only in materials alone but also by including process conditions.
Prediction 6: Chinese companies will steadily increase their share from mature products
The localization efforts by Chinese manufacturers will not stop.
Looking at public information from companies like Nata Opto-electronic and Tongcheng New Materials, product certification and lineup expansion are progressing up to ArF.
By 2035,
it is highly likely that the presence of Chinese companies in g/i-line and KrF will be greater than it is today.
The scope of adoption will likely expand even for ArF.
However, for EUV and High-NA, an ecosystem that includes not only materials but also exposure equipment, metrology, masks, and etching is necessary.
Therefore,
rapid localization in mature areas, and catching up over time in cutting-edge areas
is the two-tiered structure I predict.
Prediction 7: The strength of Japanese companies will shift from 'market share' to 'certification networks'
In 2035, it is not guaranteed that Japanese companies will maintain the same market share as they do today.
Competition with Chinese, South Korean, and Western companies will certainly intensify.
Even so, Japanese companies possess powerful assets.
decades of customer certification
high purification
Polymer and PAG technology
Quality assurance
Overseas production bases
Joint development with fabs
are key.
Particularly important is the certification network.
Once a resist is adopted, it is not easily replaced.
Therefore, the competitiveness of Japanese companies will shift from
a model of "manufacturing in Japan and exporting to the world"
to
a network that conducts joint development, manufacturing, and quality assurance near customers around the world
.
Prediction 8: Environmental Regulations Will Change Material Design
When considering 2035, performance alone is not enough.
Semiconductor factories use large amounts of chemicals, water, and electricity.
For photoresists,
PFAS
organic solvents
waste liquid
VOCs
packaging materials
transportation
and others will become issues.
In the future,
Not necessarily the "material with the best performance,"
but rather,
a material that simultaneously satisfies performance, cost, and environmental impact requirements
may become difficult to adopt if it does not meet these criteria.
This also presents an opportunity for new entrants.
This is because they can design new chemical systems based on environmental constraints, rather than simply improving existing materials.
2026–2035 Roadmap Forecast
2026–2028
The number of layers using 0.33NA EUV will expand. High-NA will move from customer evaluation to initial mass production. Competition for the evaluation and adoption of MOR will accelerate.
2029–2031
High-NA will be fully introduced into some critical layers of advanced Logic and DRAM. Competition in material sets, including underlayers and hard masks, will intensify.
2032–2035
High-NA, 0.33NA EUV, and ArF immersion will be segmented by application. MOR, CAR, dry resists, and new molecular materials will coexist. Chinese local manufacturers will also advance into the global market.
This is the author's scenario, which will change depending on equipment introduction timing, geopolitics, regulations, and AI demand.
Conditions for strong companies in 2035
Finally, I will make predictions based on "conditions" rather than company names.
Resist companies that will be strong in 2035 are those that:
1. Possess EUV and High-NA
Can access cutting-edge nodes.
2. Do not abandon ArF and KrF
Can capture demand for mature nodes and packaging.
3. Understanding both MOR and CAR
Can adapt to changes in material technology.
4. Providing up to the underlayer
Can optimize the entire process rather than just individual products.
5. Capable of global production
Can respond to geopolitical risks.
6. Capable of reproducing high purity in mass production
Can translate laboratory performance into factory quality.
7. Staying ahead of environmental regulations
Possessing the ability to handle PFAS, solvents, and waste liquids.
Companies that possess these seven attributes will likely be the winners in 2035.
Photoresist will not disappear.
In this series, we have focused mainly on EUV and High-NA.
However, what I want to emphasize in the end is,
that photoresist is not just a material for cutting-edge semiconductors
that is the point.
Automobiles.
AI servers.
Smartphones.
Power semiconductors.
Sensors.
MEMS.
HBM.
Advanced packaging.
Some form of lithography is used in almost all of these.
As long as semiconductors exist, materials to create patterns will be necessary.
Even if the technical framework changes,
"causing a chemical reaction only where needed to draw circuits"
the role of photoresist will remain.
Conclusion of the series
The essence of the photoresist industry that has become clear throughout these 16 parts is that
resists are not merely photosensitive liquids, but strategic materials where optics, polymer chemistry, quantum phenomena, ultra-purification, equipment, logistics, and geopolitics intersect
.
The technological competition of the global semiconductor industry is condensed into a thin film of several dozen nanometers.
It is unclear which companies will be winning in 2035.
However, there is one thing that can be said with a fairly high degree of certainty.
As semiconductors evolve, the technology required for photoresists will become even more advanced.
The competition of invisible materials will continue.
Reference materials
Hashtags
#Semiconductor #Photoresist #EUV #HighNAEUV #MOR #SemiconductorMaterials #2035 #MarketForecast #Investment
