The End of Large-Scale Investment Opens a 'Realistic Future' for China and Africa: A Look at the News

Introduction

The news that Chinese lending to Africa has plummeted is often dismissed at first glance with terms like 'China's retreat' or 'the failure of the Belt and Road Initiative.' But is that really the case?

Rather, could this be a sign that the relationship between China and Africa has finally begun to transition into a 'sustainable form' instead? When viewed in that light, the landscape looks quite different.

Cleaning up after a 'success that was too big'

In the 2010s, China pushed massive infrastructure projects—railways, ports, roads, and power plants—into Africa through state-to-state loans all at once. The amount exceeded $10 billion annually. Neither the speed nor the scale could be matched by other nations.

But what remained as a result was:

• unrepayable debt

• underutilized infrastructure

• seeds of political conflict

And on the Chinese side, there accumulated:

• bad debts

• international criticism

• a decline in domestic economic capacity

as well.

Was this a 'failure'? Partially, yes, but it would be more accurate to say it was 'the distortion created by a success that was too big'.

Not that they can't invest, but rather they 'stopped doing it'

In 2024, new Chinese lending to Africa fell to less than 10% of its peak.

However, what should be noted is that China has not withdrawn from Africa at all.

• From large-scale infrastructure to small-scale projects

• From dollar-denominated loans to yuan-denominated ones

• From state financing to FDI and on-lending

This is not a withdrawal, but a restructuring of business.

China is finally...

Small, decentralized, and locally driven

The most dangerous thing in Africa is massive success.

If only one region, one ethnic group, or one sect prospers, jealousy and dissatisfaction will inevitably arise. Eventually, it will become armed and turn to destruction.

That is why the path China has now begun to choose—

• small-scale

• profit-oriented

• regionally decentralized

• locally-hired centered

—is, ironically, the most stable for African society.

This is not because China has 'become kinder.' It is the
result of learning from reality.

The possibility of the 'Japanese style' that emerges here

Watching this change, I cannot help but see the Japanese approach overlapping.

Japan has historically...

• not invested huge sums all at once

• not forced technical standards to rise

• prioritized human resource development and on-site integration

Support that takes time to lay the groundwork has been continued.

It is not flashy, but the goal is 'a state where things continue to run locally even after we have left.'
Because of this, they do not monopolize the results, and it is less likely to leave behind resentment.

The direction China is heading now, as a result, seems to be approaching this 'Japanese style'.

Can the same thing be done in Japan?

In theory, yes.

• A large budget is not needed

• The latest technology is not needed either

• What is needed is people, time, and a sense for the field

In particular, Japan's retired generation, centered on those in their 60s who are still fully capable of working possess

• experience in overcoming crises on the front lines

• practical skills that do not rely on politics

• an attitude of persistence until results are achieved

are highly compatible with the reality on the ground in Africa.

However, one question remains here.

Does the Japanese government have such ideas?

To be honest, as a system, almost none.

The Japanese government requires

• success that can be seen in numbers

• clear accountability for failure

• things that can be explained in the short term

prefer.

On the other hand, the model discussed here is

• time-consuming to produce results,

• difficult to quantify,

• and not very visible even when successful,

in other words,not politically appealing.

That is why what is actually in motion is

• JICA on the ground,

• the private sector,

• NPOs,

• and individuals,

all of which exist outside of national strategy.

Conclusion: The end of large-scale investment is not the end.

The fact that China can no longer continue large-scale investment
may look like a setback in the short term.

However, in the long term,
it may become an opportunity for China-Africa business to finally stand on solid ground.

And that form
overlaps with the approach Japan has been unconsciously following for many years.

The issue is not whether the Japanese government has that idea.

It is already present on the ground. It is just not being talked about.

#China #Africa #BeltAndRoad #InternationalBusiness #JapaneseStyle #DevelopmentAid #OnTheGroundApproach #Geopolitics #note