The Lineup of the Takaichi Cabinet: How Militarily Strong Is This Emergency Security-Focused Cabinet?

Minister Onoda is huge. But setting that aside.

When a cabinet is formed, many people discuss the lineup of ministers, but I think it is fair to say that there are almost no politicians who can actually manage the bureaucracy alongside policy and realize the policies they envision. What matters is the command and control structure of the bureaucrats stationed in the Prime Minister's Office and the Cabinet Secretariat, and where the key to moving those bureaucrats lies.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara

Although he is not a bureaucrat, one must keep an eye on the head of the Prime Minister's Office who manages the cabinet. Why Kihara?

Minoru Kihara served as Minister of Defense in the Kishida administration and was a figure at the very center of the 'US-Japan/Defense Community' circuit, including the US-Japan alliance, defense equipment transfers, and the Indo-Pacific strategy. He is the person who concluded the Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (a military agreement) and confirmed the trilateral cooperation between Japan, the US, and the Philippines against China and Russia. He must have been in the operations room during the airspace violations by Chinese and Russian military aircraft, the Chinese naval vessel's violation of Japanese territorial waters, the transit through the Taiwan Strait, and the launch of Chinese ballistic missiles.

In other words, it is fair to say he was the 'face' of the Kishida cabinet's security line. The composition is that Kihara has been reappointed as Chief Cabinet Secretary in the Takaichi cabinet.

Furthermore, the post of Chief Cabinet Secretary is the 'breakwater of the administration,' handling not only diplomacy and security but also media relations, parliamentary responses, and the handling of scandals.

Reading this straightforwardly, the Takaichi cabinet has chosen to maintain the US-Japan and defense lines built during the Kishida administration almost exactly as they were, while simultaneously upholding the 'Abe-style security hawk' banner. In other words, regarding the content of security policy, it may be closer to 'inheriting the Kishida line + overlaying the Takaichi color' rather than a 'complete repainting into Takaichi colors.'

The depth of the 'public security and defense line' visible at the factual level

At the core of the Takaichi Prime Minister's Office, the police, defense, and security lines are quite prominent.

Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary (Administrative):

• Yasuhiro Tsuyuki: (Former Commissioner General of the National Police Agency) -> Concurrently serves as Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary (Administrative), Director of the Cabinet Personnel Bureau, and Cabinet Crisis Management Officer for Infectious Diseases. A lateral move from the top of the National Police Agency to a post equivalent to the number two in the Prime Minister's Office.

Executive Secretary to the Prime Minister:

• Shigeyuki Tani: From the National Police Agency (experienced as Director-General of the Criminal Investigation Bureau)

• Jun Arita: From the Ministry of Defense (seconded to the Prime Minister's Office from Director of the Defense Planning Division)

Special Advisor to the Prime Minister:

• Sadamasa Onoe: A former Air Self-Defense Force Lieutenant General, serving as Special Advisor to the Prime Minister for security and nuclear disarmament.

Secretary General of the National Security Secretariat (NSS):

• Keiichi Ichikawa: (Ministry of Foreign Affairs security line, the command tower for security)

It is a composition where 'National Police Agency + Ministry of Defense + Self-Defense Force alumni + Ministry of Foreign Affairs security experts' are tightly packed into the core of the Prime Minister's Office.

Aim 1: A Shift Toward a Hardcore 'Contingency-Ready' Prime Minister's Office?

It is clear from public information that Takaichi herself is a very distinct security hawk with a focus on strengthening public order. She consistently advocates for amending Article 9 of the Constitution (explicitly mentioning the Self-Defense Forces and effectively turning them into a 'national military') and significantly increasing defense spending. She is also proactive regarding economic security, vigilance against the outflow of technology to China, anti-espionage legislation, and the establishment of a national intelligence agency.

If she is serious about pursuing that path,

• contingency legislation and the legalization of emergency clauses

• defense capability development (equipment, bases, and operations)

• economic sanctions and export controls

• cybersecurity and counter-espionage (anti-spy measures)

• crisis management for demonstrations, terrorism, and cyberattacks

A line that integrates all of this into 'political decision-making to practical implementation' will be necessary at the Prime Minister's Office. Therefore,

• placing the head of the National Police Agency in posts that control personnel authority and crisis management (Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary + Director-General of the Cabinet Personnel Bureau)

• directly connecting the lines of the Ministry of Defense and the National Police Agency to the Prime Minister's immediate side (executive secretaries)

• placing a former Air Self-Defense Force general as a Special Advisor to the Prime Minister to bring offline military expertise directly to the table at the Prime Minister's Office

This is a design that can be understood as an 'emergency mode Prime Minister's Office' that 'manages defense, public order, foreign security, and personnel to a significant degree centrally at the Prime Minister's Office.' At the very least, if explained as a 'lineup to speed up contingency response,' a certain degree of rationality must be acknowledged.

Aim 2: Strengthening Information Control, Scandal Management, and Bureaucratic Governance

Looking at it more critically, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tsuyuki is also the Director-General of the Cabinet Personnel Bureau—a position that holds almost all the levers for the personnel affairs of senior officials in central government ministries. When someone from the National Police Agency sits here,

• a 'deterrent effect' against leaks or rebellion by bureaucrats

• 'crisis management' for political funding, elections, and scandal cases
  can be operated quite strictly.

Furthermore,

• the Takaichi administration is a thin coalition of the LDP and Ishin, so its foundation cannot be called rock-solid.

• It also constantly faces the risk of backlash over political funding issues and strong security-related statements.

If you overlay a 'police + defense-heavy Prime Minister's Office' onto this, it can be read as a lineup that is conscious not only of 'external security' but also of 'internal control.' Of course, at this stage, it would be going too far to claim there is an 'abuse of the system'; it should be pointed out only to the extent that the design is structurally prone to leaning in that direction.

In fact, articles such as those in Bunshun have pointed to quite personal networks, such as 'the connection between Prime Minister Takaichi's mother and the Nara Prefectural Police,' as the background for Tsuyuki's appointment.
It is not a stretch to read this as placing a 'police bureaucrat who can be trusted and who can also tighten the screws' as the number two in the Prime Minister's Office.

Aim 3: Security and Defense Color as a 'Message' to the Right-Wing Support Base

Another layer is symbolism.

• Takaichi is inherently a symbolic figure of the Abe faction's 'security hawks.'

• She herself has long publicly advocated for an anti-espionage law and the creation of a national intelligence agency.

• This time, with the coalition with Ishin, there is a need to show a 'shift to the right' in security, education, and political reform.

In this situation, lining up 'former National Police Agency commissioners,' 'former Air Self-Defense Force generals,' and 'Ministry of Defense personnel' in the Prime Minister's Office is a very clear signal that this is an 'administration that prioritizes security and national defense.'

For the right-wing and conservative base, it is a 'long-awaited' move, while for the liberal side, it is a configuration that stirs up 'concerns about a surveillance state.' In other words, it is a view that this is personnel appointments with a high degree of messaging as a 'color'.

'Prime Minister's Office operations shifted to emergency mode'
+
'a lineup for strengthening the tightening of the bureaucratic apparatus'
+
'increased budget and exports for defense equipment'

Things that can be stated as facts

• Key posts in the Prime Minister's Office are heavily staffed by former members of the National Police Agency, the Ministry of Defense, the Self-Defense Forces, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' security wing.

• Takaichi herself is a politician who values security and public order, and has publicly advocated for counter-intelligence and the creation of a national intelligence agency.

Fairly sound inferences

• Concentration of authority in the Prime Minister's Office aimed at speeding up emergency response (including military, economic security, and cyber).

• Strengthening governance over the bureaucracy and the Liberal Democratic Party, as well as information control and scandal risk management.

Areas where speculation is strong if you go that far

• Claims at the level that they are aiming for a systematic surveillance state that even intends 'citizen surveillance.' -> This cannot be asserted at this time without looking at the legislative content and its implementation.

In other words, a military and national defense-oriented cabinet

The approval rating for the Takaichi Cabinet is high at 63.8% (in November), even in the Jiji Press opinion poll, which is said to be the most conservative figure. Other media outlets have reported figures exceeding 80%.

Supporters of conservative parties also support it at a high rate.
In fact, it is even higher than the approval rating among LDP supporters (lol).

LDP Approval Rating 21.8 63.6% of supporters 13.9pt support
Sanseito Approval Rating 4.0 71.4*1 2.9pt
DPP Approval Rating 3.5 56.8*2 2.0pt
Ishin Approval Rating 2.9 88.2*2 2.6pt
Conservative Approval Rating 0.9 72.7*2 0.5pt
Independent Approval Rating 54.4 70.5*3 40.8pt

What was at stake in the election was "tax cuts, take-home pay, and high prices" and the "foreigner issue"

What was at stake in the previous 2024 Lower House election and 2025 Upper House election was not national defense.
In the 2024 Upper House election, the Democratic Party for the People, which used the catchphrase "increase take-home pay," expanded its support, and in the 2025 Lower House election, the Sanseito party, which advocated "Japanese First," expanded its support. And then there is the measure against "high prices."

Key Policies of the Takaichi Administration

However, while many of the policies advocated by those conservative parties that were close to the lives of the people were partially incorporated into the LDP's election campaign and presidential race slogans, most of them have "toned down" as cabinet policies.

• "Active fiscal policy" has been replaced with "responsible active fiscal policy,"

• Food security remains abstract with unclear concrete measures, eventually leading to acreage reduction policies,

• The foreigner issue and land regulations have also seen past strong assertions reduced to mere brief mentions,

• Despite the obvious policy inconsistency, they repeated that "the LDP-Komeito coalition is the foundation." (They eventually withdrew)

• They avoided speaking concretely about the effects and side effects of mass vaccinations during the COVID-19 period,

• Consumption tax cuts have ultimately toned down to the same level as Ishiba's.

And regarding the crucial "Taiwan issue" as well,

• Although they presented an analysis assuming an emergency, they stated that dispatching the Self-Defense Forces under current law is difficult and avoided stating clearly whether or not to recognize the state. (In the policy speech)

Nevertheless, a significant portion of conservative supporters seem to perceive that the Takaichi Cabinet will inherit and strengthen the "increase take-home pay" and "Japanese First" line. Similar expectations are spreading to a certain extent among the "conservative-centrist" and "centrist" layers of independents. There may be a perception gap here arising from the discrepancy between "election slogans" and "actual policy priorities."

Policies based on security

Prime Minister Takaichi advocates "growth strategy investment," which at first glance looks like "active fiscal policy," but the fact that the main focus is on investment in "national defense and security" creates a gap with the public's expectations, which many supporters have not yet noticed.

Regarding the foreigner issue, there is a high possibility that the number of foreign visitors and students will decrease due to China's economic sanction-like response following the Taiwan emergency remarks, which is completely different in intent from the "Japanese First" that the public originally sought in the election, but supporters have not noticed. Or perhaps they are even ignoring it.

Looking at the lineup of bureaucrats in the Prime Minister's Office, I feel that only policies centered on 'military, defense, and security' will be implemented. I am not opposed to strengthening these areas, however.

However, what voters originally wanted was a 'response to rising prices' and 'the rebuilding of the national economy.' With the current lineup in the Prime Minister's Office, there is a high risk that those areas will be relatively neglected. Supporters and others alike need to look at that possibility calmly.