▶ World Cup revenue hits record high of 1.335 trillion yen, yet the value per match drops by 19%: Why? [7/24]

The 2026 FIFA World Cup recorded an all-time high total revenue of $8.9 billion (approximately 1.335 trillion yen).

This is a 54% increase compared to the 2022 Qatar tournament.

However, these spectacular figures mask the structural weaknesses inherent in the broadcasting market.

The primary reason for the revenue increase is the expansion of participating countries from 32 to 48.

The number of matches increased by 47%, from 64 to 104.

However, the growth in media rights revenue was limited to 32% ($1 billion, or approximately 150 billion yen).

Revenue failed to keep pace with the increase in matches, causing the value per match to drop by 19%.

Broadcasters are paying a high total price, yet the content they receive is becoming diluted.

The more matches there are, the more the 'specialness' of each individual match is lost.

This decline could potentially change the very way broadcasting rights are sold.

The 2030 tournament is scheduled to be held across six countries, with Spain, Portugal, and Morocco as the main hosts, and opening commemorative matches held in three South American countries.

Time zone differences and the number of matches will likely be even more complex than in this tournament.

If the value per match continues to fall, the 'bulk purchase' model, where broadcasters buy all matches together, will lose its rationality.

We may see a shift toward individual deals, where broadcasters only buy matches involving their national team and the knockout stages, or joint bidding where they partner with streaming providers to share cost risks.

It is expected that the form of bidding will change.

This is not someone else's problem for Japan, either.

Because this tournament's schedule was aligned with North American time, Asia and Europe saw a series of late-night kickoffs.

As a result, the total number of global broadcasting contracts decreased by 11%, from 495 to 443.

The contract value for China's CCTV plummeted to less than a quarter of its previous amount, falling from $250 million (approximately 37.5 billion yen) to $60 million (approximately 9 billion yen).

In Japan, too, broadcasting rights fees can no longer be covered by broadcasters alone, and joint acquisition with streaming providers has become the norm.

What happens when late-night scheduling is added to this?

Viewers are asleep. The unit price structure for spot commercials, which is based on prime-time viewing, falls apart.

The situation where 'we paid high rights fees but cannot recoup them through advertising' may hit Japan next.

However, there is a glimmer of hope. Online streaming clearly compensated for the decline in live television broadcasts.

The BBC's semi-final coverage in the UK reached a peak of 24 million viewers, combining BBC One television and BBC iPlayer streaming.

At the same time, 12.6 million viewing requests were generated on iPlayer and BBC Sport.

People who could not sit in front of the TV were following the match on their smartphones.

TVer and NHK Plus in Japan are also becoming more widespread.

However, there is a decisive difference. The BBC positions iPlayer as a 'substitute for television broadcasting' and incorporates it into the same viewing performance metrics as television.

On the other hand, in Japan, streaming is still treated as a 'supplement to television' and has not become a pillar to support advertising transactions.

This difference becomes apparent when faced with unfavorable conditions like late-night scheduling.

Broadcasters that can count streaming as a revenue pillar can remain in business even if television ratings drop.

Broadcasters that view streaming only as a supplement have nowhere to run.

Even with the same late-night kickoff, the extent of the damage received changes completely.

FIFA itself let go of the 'match footage itself,' which rights holders had protected most strictly.

By legally opening up the first 10 minutes on TikTok and YouTube, the number of views exceeded 20 billion.

This was likely a decision based on survey results showing that 49% of the younger generation wants personal highlights.

In Japan, too, broadcasters have been experimenting with social media deployment and second screens.

However, it was not possible to scale up because confirming permissions on who could use the footage and to what extent took time, and the clipping process relied on manual labor.

The decisive difference is that FIFA incorporated 30 creators into the system from the start as 'official reporters'.

Instead of banning clipping, authorize it and have it mass-produced. A shift in thinking is required.