VARIATIONS: How to accurately determine Amazon product sales volume

What are VARIATIONS?

VARIATIONS is a technique that is particularly effective for products sold on Amazon, specifically in variation catalogs.

It allows you to determine the sales volume for each individual variation product, which cannot be distinguished using the standard Keepa ranking graph (the jagged line).

By utilizing VARIATIONS, you will be able to purchase variation products that you previously could not aggressively target due to the high number of uncertain factors regarding their sales volume.

A variation product, as shown in the image above, is a product where multiple items (variations) are listed in a single catalog. Even if the ranking or ratings are high, it refers to a product where you cannot tell which one is actually selling just by looking at the Keepa graph.

Tools to prepare for determining the sales volume of variation products

To determine the sales volume of variation products, a paid version of Keepa (approximately 2,700 yen per month) is required.

If you decide this technique is useful after learning about it, please subscribe to the paid version of Keepa.

How to determine the sales volume of variation products

The method for determining the sales volume of variation products is actually very simple.
We will practice using the planner variation product mentioned in the example earlier.

1. Open the Amazon catalog and display the "DATA" section of "Keepa"

2. Once "DATA" is open, display "Offers"

3. The "Sold 30 days" displayed is the 30-day sales volume for each shop

There are a few points to note, but basically the value displayed here is the
number of items sold in 30 days. (Be sure to check the points to note described later.)

This data is known because Keepa stores the inventory count (displayed in the leftmost column) in its database and records the increase or decrease in that number.

If you want to know the 30-day sales for all shops, it is good to look at the "Total" item, but the "~60" items sold at the lowest price can be said to be the most useful value as the sales volume for one seller.

Also, if you click "Sold 30 days", it will sort the 30-day sales volume in ascending or descending order, so it is easier to understand if you click it to sort in descending order.

(All images from this point on are displayed in descending order of Sold 30 days.)

A lot of information that can be understood from Offers

You can tell who it is being bought from (Amazon, Prime, self-shipping)

Actually, the information that can be understood from Offers is not just the sales volume.
The information that can be identified from Offers is listed below.

In the Prime | FBA | Seller item,
✅Amazon itself
✅FBA-compatible store
✅Self-shipping store
can be read.

With this data, it is obvious which seller it is being bought from.

By the way, you can see that this product is being bought from sellers other than Amazon itself, even if Amazon itself is present. [stationery-goods]

In other words, it is "a product that has the potential to be sold even if Amazon itself is present."

This is very important data, along with knowing the sales volume of variation products.
(Note that Amazon itself may sometimes engage in price competition.)

Total inventory and total sales volume can be known (Keepa all-time)

In the leftmost column,
✅Inventory count held by each shop (Stock)
✅Total sales volume of each shop for the entire past period (Sold)
✅Total value of each (StockTotal, Total)
can be confirmed.

This data is likely not for a specific number of months, but rather data for the entire period since Keepa began tracking inventory levels in its database.

If you know the total inventory, you can grasp the safety of the price, such as the possibility of price competition occurring.
(If the total inventory is high, price competition is likely to occur; if it is low, it is less likely.)

Identifying misleading sales figures

This product appears to be selling quite well with 236 total sales in 30 days, but that is not actually the case.
Although 107 sales in 30 days are displayed for the top two sellers, looking at their Stock History graph reveals that the inventory dropped sharply all at once recently.

Normally, when inventory sells gradually, the graph decreases in a downward slope, but
you should be careful if it drops all at once.

In the case of this image, it is assumed that the 107 units of inventory were moved from the Amazon warehouse because they were needed for other sales channels.

Since this Keepa data tracks increases and decreases in inventory, it is important to note that it includes not only the number of items actually sold but also the number of items moved.

By the way, the top two sellers moved the same amount of inventory at the same time, so they appear to be the same seller.
(Please note that listing the same product under multiple seller accounts is a violation of Amazon's terms of service.)

Understanding past seller (sales volume) information

This product is very popular and sold out in no time, resulting in only two sellers currently offering it. This lacks accuracy in terms of sales volume.

The "Include historical offers" option is useful in this situation.
This is an item that allows you to "include past seller information," and if you click the checkbox...

In this way, past seller information is displayed, and looking at "Sold30days," you can see from the "Stock History" that it sold quite well even in the last 30 days and that three sellers have disappeared.

Note: Be careful with the top seller, as it is believed there was an "inventory movement" as explained in the previous section.

If you want to know the 30-day sales volume (Sold30days) more accurately, you should basically
check the "Include historical offers" box.

Points to note when using Variations

While "Variations" is a very useful piece of know-how, there are
a few points to keep in mind.

Sales volume for products with purchase limits cannot be determined

This product is an original item that sells over 100 units per month at Puu Co., Ltd., but

is what is being displayed.

In fact, Keepa cannot grasp the stock quantity of products that have purchase limits applied.

Since Puu Co., Ltd. has set a "purchase limit (3 units)" to prevent resale of this product, the stock quantity is displayed as 3 units, and the sales volume is inaccurate.

For such products, it is best to refer to the sales volume of other sellers without purchase limits, or estimate the sales volume from traditional rankings or the number of variation reviews.

Sales volume of self-fulfilled sellers may be unknown

The above are products where all sellers are self-fulfilled. Although it is a product that sells quite well, there are many items where the "Sold30days" field shows "?".

This "?" display phenomenon is thought to be due to the inventory settings of the self-fulfilled sellers, but when the data is inaccurate like this, you need to switch to methods such as

as shown above.

Even if all data is shown as "?", there are products that are selling well, so as in the previous section, refer to rankings and the number of variation reviews as usual, and make a comprehensive judgment.

Note: The top seller in the image above has frequent inventory movements, so the data lacks accuracy and requires caution.
Note: The number of variation reviews can be checked under "DATA" => "Variations".

Summary of Variations

Estimated turnover < Actual sales volume

As explained so far, "Variations" is

and is extremely, extremely useful data. When judging by the number of ranking increases as done previously,

and other sales figures based on repeated assumptions were used, but by using "Variations",

can be referenced, which should allow for more accurate purchasing decisions than ever before.

Research targets increased from 13.4 million to 33.4 million

According to Keepa data,

Products with variations are actually 2.5 times more common.

If you include variation products that could not be included in research targets until now, the possibilities for Amazon sales expand by 2.5 times.

By all means, let's make the most of the Raijin system and actively research variation products!