[Queen Stakes 2026] Ability and expected value are different. How should we evaluate the popular horses? Current analysis derived from data

Introduction
"The Ibis Summer Dash is pretty much decided, but the Queen Stakes is truly difficult."

I'm sure many of you feel that way.
The Sapporo 1800m turf is a race that isn't decided by ability alone.
Post position, weight, race flow, and aptitude for the foreign-style turf.
It is not rare for popular horses to collapse if even one of these is missing.

That is why this time, I will organize things from the perspective of "which horse has expected value" rather than "which horse is strong."
*This article is an analysis as of this moment.

Points seen from past data
Looking at data since 2016, the first thing to pay attention to is the class of the previous race.
In G1 groups, horses that were popular in their previous race have a higher success rate, while conversely, horses that were double-digit favorites in G1 races have significantly lower results.

In other words,
"Having run in a G1" is not enough to evaluate them.
It is important whether the horse showed ability even in a G1.
Also, the finishing position in the previous race is surprisingly not an absolute condition.
There have been cases of horses coming back from 6th to 9th place, not just those that finished 1st to 3rd.
There is no need to lower your evaluation based solely on the finishing position.

Regarding post positions
Looking at this year's post positions, I get the impression that there are no extreme advantages or disadvantages.
The Sapporo 1800m heads to a corner immediately after the start, but it is a course where post position bias strong enough to overturn ability differences is unlikely to appear.

Therefore, this time,
I consider this a race where I want to prioritize ability and foreign-style turf aptitude over post position.
I think.

Horses I am interested in at this moment
Erika Express
A talented horse that showed her strength in the Victoria Mile.
In terms of ability alone, she should be in the top class this time as well.
Gate 6, number 9 is not bad, and there are no major negatives in terms of data.
However, she will undoubtedly attract popularity, so the expected value as a betting ticket will depend on consulting the odds.

Festival Hill
The light weight of 52kg is very attractive.
There are many cases where 3-year-olds perform well by taking advantage of the weight difference with older horses, and it wouldn't be strange if she pulled off a win if the race flow suits her.
She is a horse whose expected value will be high depending on her popularity.

Kurino Mei
Recent race content has been stable.
She is one horse that has enough ability to compete, and it would be dangerous to underestimate her.
She is the type I want to evaluate while balancing her popularity.

Rouge Solitaire
She drew an outside gate, but I don't consider that an extreme negative at Sapporo 1800m.
Depending on the race flow, a late charge is quite possible, and I feel there is room for her to run better than her popularity suggests.

Current analysis
For this Queen Stakes,
I don't have the impression of an "absolute dominant favorite."
That is why, rather than just buying the popular horses as they are,
* Do they have the ability to match their popularity?
* Do they have expected value beyond the odds?
This is a race where I want to prioritize these two points.

Ability ranking and betting value do not necessarily match.
I believe that finding this discrepancy is the shortcut to increasing the recovery rate.

Finally
At this moment, I have reached the stage of organizing data, post positions, and recent race content.
From here, I will narrow down the horses that I, as Q, should really target, taking into account the final training, track conditions on the day, and the odds.

Buying because they are popular.
Eliminating because they are popular.
Instead of that,Buying because there is expected value.
I want to reach a final conclusion while valuing that perspective.
Final marks, betting tickets, and specific predictions will be released on the day of the race.

See you again in Saturday's final analysis.