A "1% probability" does not mean it will "never happen."

Introduction

"You have a 1% chance of winning."

It sounds like a lottery slogan, but what impression do you get when you see this number?

"It hardly ever happens, right?"
"Well, I don't need to worry about it."
"1% isn't zero, but it's negligible, isn't it?"

——Many of you might feel that way.

However, there is a small "probability trap" here.

In fact, an "event with a 1% probability" will occur with a probability of approximately 63.4% if repeated 100 times.

The reality behind "1%"

For example, let's say a drug has a "1% chance of side effects."

While you continue taking it thinking "it hardly ever happens," you might suddenly notice a change in your health. This is because if you use that medicine 100 times, you will become someone who "experiences side effects" about 63 out of 100 times.

Mathematically, this probability can be explained by the "cumulative probability of Bernoulli trials." In short, it means that "even if something has a 1% probability, if you repeat it many times, it gradually becomes impossible to ignore."

Conversely, it also means that even if it is just a 1% possibility, if it is an opportunity, it can become a "likely" future by repeating it.

The true nature of "63.4%"

This figure of "63.4% probability of occurring if done 100 times." Actually, it can be derived using a mathematical formula.

The probability that an event with a 1% chance "never occurs" is
(1 - 0.01) to the power of 100 = approximately 0.366.

In other words, the fact that there is an approximately 36.6% chance it will never occur even after 100 trials means,
conversely, the probability that it will occur at least once is 100 - 36.6 = approximately 63.4%.

This way of thinking can be applied to various situations in life.

Love, challenges, and 'miracles'

For example, let's say the probability of a confession succeeding is '1%'.

Even so, if you seriously approach 100 people, there is a 63.4% chance that at least one person will accept your feelings.

Many people give up because they feel '1%' is 'zero', but in reality, 'there is a possibility'. In fact, for those who keep challenging themselves, '1% is a number that happens surprisingly often'.

Submitting proposals repeatedly, applying for auditions over and over, failing many times and continuing to try.

Only to those who keep betting on that '1%' will the opportunity arrive 'one day, suddenly, and quite normally'.

Sometimes you should 'fear the 1%'

However, this story is not limited to opportunities.

For example, if there is a '1% chance of a mistake occurring'. If that continues 100 times, there is a 63.4% chance that some kind of mistake will occur.

The complacency of thinking 'it's only 1%, so it's fine' becomes a major risk when it accumulates.

In areas like food factory hygiene management, medical errors, or security incidents, if you underestimate '1%', eventually an 'accident that was bound to happen' will occur.

That is precisely why '1%' is a number that can be both a hope and a warning.

Whether to nip the '1%' in the bud or nurture it

There are many 'differences of just 1%' hidden in our daily lives.

・Increase your study time by just 1% every day
・Think of strategies to increase sales by 1%
・Make improvements to reduce mistakes by even 1%
・Pursue a 1% chance without giving up

When you accumulate such 'small 1%s', they eventually turn into a reality with great certainty.

The future lies on top of probabilities.

We live our lives surrounded by things that 'could happen' every day.

That is why we must correctly grasp the meaning of '1%'.

That leads to both the power to seize opportunities and the wisdom to avoid risks.

Summary

The phrase "1% probability" carries various emotions, such as providing reassurance, inducing complacency, or sparking hope.

However, in reality, that number is "heavy."

If repeated, it becomes reality.
That is precisely why you should neither underestimate "1%" nor be afraid to bet on it.

Is the "1%" you choose today a source of hope? Or is it a warning of risk?

Either way, it is something I would like to try putting into practice at some point by repeating it 100 times!