Is Extreme Weather a Warning to Humanity?
Compass Newsletter Current Affairs Report Vol. 38 (August 2026)
A Warning to Humanity: 'Extreme Weather'
by Kaichiro Tsutsumi
In 2026, in addition to the rising baseline of global warming, the 'Super El Niño phenomenon,' which is reaching its largest scale in recorded history, has overlapped, leading to frequent record-breaking floods, intense heatwaves, and forest fires around the world. The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are also calling for high alert, stating that current climate disasters have already 'reached a nightmarish scale,' and extreme weather is being perceived both scientifically and internationally as a true warning to humanity.
1. Disasters Striking the World
Europe (Catastrophic Heatwaves and Wildfires)
In late June, a high-pressure system (heat dome) developed due to a large meander in the jet stream and stalled, causing average temperatures across Europe to exceed normal levels by around 10°C. In France, Paris recorded 44°C and Bordeaux 44.3°C, and many other countries, including Germany, Poland, Denmark, and Hungary, broke their all-time high temperature records. There has been an increase in heatstroke deaths in regions with low air conditioning penetration, and preventive shutdowns of French nuclear power plants have occurred due to a lack of cooling water. Due to the heatwave and severe drought, record-breaking wildfires have occurred across Europe, including in Spain and France, destroying a total of over 250,000 hectares and displacing large numbers of people.
Asia/North America (Extreme Heat Over 40°C and Severe Weather)
New York City in the United States was hit by an unusual heatwave, with temperatures reaching 42°C, and strict precautions were put in place around FIFA World Cup venues. From February to March, the collapse of the Arctic polar vortex led to cold waves, major floods, and tornadoes striking the entire U.S. simultaneously, making the volatility of the weather prominent. In India, temperatures in the capital, New Delhi, reached 42.8°C as early as April, and Japan has also observed unprecedentedly long periods of extreme heat exceeding 40°C, which, when combined with record-breaking marine heatwaves, has significantly increased the risk of extreme heavy rain caused by linear precipitation zones.
Africa/Central and South America (Devastating Floods and Droughts)
In Kenya, a major flood caused by a single night of heavy rain resulted in numerous casualties. In Southern Africa, including Mozambique, large-scale flooding has displaced hundreds of thousands of people. In North Africa, Tunisia and Algeria recorded temperatures of 49°C, nearing 50°C, putting power and medical systems in crisis. In Central and South America, while Brazil and Chile have experienced major floods and storms, large-scale forest fires caused by drought are raging in countries like Argentina.
According to analyses by the WMO and others, the peak of the El Niño effect, which will push global temperatures the highest, is predicted to occur from the coming autumn and winter through 2027, further increasing the risk of damage to agriculture and global food shortages.
2. The Future of the Earth | Expansion of 'Uninhabitable Regions'
Globally, current extreme weather will become the 'new normal,' and we will face the risk of social systems and ecosystems collapsing.
Normalization of Heatwaves and the Crisis of Survival
In regions such as the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia, the hot summer period will extend for several months, expanding areas where outdoor survival is impossible without air conditioning.
Sea Level Rise and the Submergence of Island Nations and Coastal Cities
With the global average sea level rising by up to about 1 meter, many island nations like the Maldives and massive coastal cities such as New York, Shanghai, and Bangkok will face the risk of submergence, creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees.
Intensification of Food and Water Shortages
Due to frequent major droughts and forest fires, crop yields in grain belts like those in the U.S. and Brazil will plummet, leading to an explosive increase in the starving population.
Collapse of Ecosystems
It is predicted that over 99% of the world's coral reefs will die out, and approximately 20-30% of biological species will face the risk of extinction.
3. The Future of Japan | 'Loss of the Four Seasons' and Damage to Economy and Life
Japan faces unique social issues such as a declining birthrate, an aging population, and population decline, and because climate disasters are intensifying, the damage it will sustain is more severe than in other countries.
From 'Four Seasons' to 'Two Seasons'
In urban areas like Tokyo and Osaka, more than four months of the year will consist of midsummer and extremely hot days, and spring and autumn will become extremely short. While winter snowfall will decrease to a level where ski resorts can no longer operate, the risk of 'heavy snowfall' where massive amounts of snow fall at once in inland areas will increase.
Intensifying 'Water Disasters' and 140 Trillion Yen in Losses
Super typhoons and linear precipitation zones will make landfall every year, and large-scale flooding of zero-meter zones will occur frequently. The cumulative damage to coastal areas due to sea-level rise and storm surges is estimated to reach 140 trillion yen.
Japanese Flavors Disappearing from the Table
The quality of rice will significantly decline due to high-temperature damage, making it difficult to maintain as a staple food. Due to rising seawater temperatures, traditional seafood such as salmon, saury, and scallops will almost no longer be caught in the waters near Japan.
Collapse of Infrastructure and Healthcare
The number of people transported and deaths due to summer heatstroke will jump to several times the current level, and road and railway disruptions and landslides caused by heavy rain will occur frequently, making it difficult to maintain regional cities.
4. A Struggle for Survival
The expansion of uninhabitable regions is feared as a major risk that will create massive numbers of environmental refugees and trigger armed conflicts and wars over water and food.
Massive Generation of Climate Refugees and Border Friction
Hundreds of millions of climate refugees will be generated, and as the resources and employment of host countries are pressured, this could develop into ethnic and religious conflicts, deteriorating public safety, and armed conflicts over borders. Governments unable to respond to rapid population movement will weaken, which could also trigger civil wars and riots.
Struggle for Survival Foundations (Water and Food)
If upstream countries of international rivers that flow through multiple nations, such as the Nile, Indus, or Mekong, dam up water due to shortages, there is a risk of 'water wars' for survival occurring with downstream countries. When global crop failures occur due to severe droughts or floods, major agricultural countries may resort to food export restrictions, leading to starvation, riots, and foreign aggression in countries that rely on imports.
Collapse of Governance and the Rise of Extremists
If governments cannot supply water and food due to economic hardship, governance functions will collapse, and impoverished young people will become more likely to join extremist organizations or terrorists, causing conflicts to become bogged down. Past conflicts in Africa and the Middle East also had severe drought and economic hardship in the background.
Because of this, the Ministry of Defense and the U.S. Pentagon have incorporated climate change countermeasures into one of the most important issues of their 'security strategies to prevent war.'
5. Survival Strategy
For humanity to survive in the future, it is essential to redefine resources and the environment not as something monopolized by specific countries, but as 'Global Commons,' and to make a paradigm shift from fighting over them to 'joint management and fair distribution.'
The Framework of 'Global Commons'
Positioning the Earth's climate system, atmosphere, high seas, and biodiversity as assets of all humanity that transcend national sovereignty. The Antarctic Treaty and the Outer Space Treaty have already institutionalized the freezing of territorial rights and peaceful use for the benefit of all humanity. Similar constraints need to be applied to water resources, arable land, forests, and oceans as carbon sinks. Given the history of developed countries consuming large amounts of resources in the past, mechanisms to share funds and technology with developing countries are also important.
Joint Management of International Rivers and Important Resources
For transboundary water resources, frameworks where all basin countries participate equally in joint management should be strengthened worldwide, and for food, a humanitarian system is needed where it is distributed through a global stockpiling network without being swayed by price surges.
From Ownership to 'Sharing,' from Competition to 'Cooperation'
A transition from a capitalist model premised on infinite economic growth and resource consumption to a sustainable, circular economy. Infrastructure directly linked to survival, such as water and energy, should not be the target of profit-seeking but should be managed jointly as shared assets. Widely sharing technologies for agriculture, seawater desalination, and clean energy without monopolizing them through patents is the key to mitigating resource shortages themselves.
If we run toward 'resource nationalism' that prioritizes only our own country's interests, a future of mutual destruction awaits. Whether we can shift from a system of fighting over resources to a system of sharing, based on the recognition that 'the Earth's resources are finite and humanity is a single community of destiny,' can be called the greatest trial for humanity in the 21st century.
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