[Most Detailed] 101st Hakone Ekiden Strength Analysis and Leg Predictions [Juntendo University]

This article is based on the team entries for the 20 universities announced on 12/10, providing a strength analysis and leg predictions for the university.

Strength Analysis

Entries

The entries for Juntendo University are as follows.

As expected, the entry list is very deep with first and second-year students. It is clear that the team is on an upward trend, with Hiroto Yoshioka showing signs of recovery, and both Yusei Kobayashi and Riku Tamame, who were expected to be key players in the spring, returning from injury. However, three road-type runners—captain Soma Hattori, Koryu Aburaya, and Yuichiro Kojima—have been left out of the list compared to those who ran in the qualifying race, which makes me feel the team is a bit short on road specialists.

Ace

Among them, the undisputed ace of this team is Koki Asai, who also ran the 2nd leg last year. In the Hakone qualifying race, he put in a spirited performance, finishing as the second-fastest Japanese runner within just one month of his return. He truly lived up to his reputation as an ace. However, he has barely raced in the last two months, so I am concerned about his condition. That said, he might be adjusting slowly this year, learning from the reflection that he peaked too early after finishing as the top Japanese runner at last year's Kosa 10-Miler and then struggled at Hakone. Regardless, Asai is a runner Juntendo cannot afford to be without, so I hope he performs well.

Key Players

Following ace Asai is Kenshin Ebisawa, who ran the 3rd leg at last year's Hakone. He finished 2nd on the team and 37th overall in the qualifying race, and he will be a key player for the team. From the lower grades, I have picked out two runners as key players. First is Hiroto Yoshioka, the 5000m high school record holder. After entering university, he struggled significantly from last year's Izumo through this year's Hakone qualifying race, with the exception of this year's Hakone 4th leg. However, he set a personal best on the track for the first time since entering university at the Nittaidai Record Meet in early November, showing signs of a comeback. The other is Riku Tamame. He had a knee injury after the All-Japan qualifying race but has finally returned. He finished as the top Japanese runner at the Kosa 10-Miler, coming within 15 seconds of Asai's record from last year. Therefore, he is also expected to perform well on the outbound legs at Hakone.

Supporting Players

I will list four runners here as supporting players. For the first supporting player, let's name fourth-year student Shuto Horikoshi. He is an upperclassman who finished 5th on the team in the qualifying race and is aiming for his first and last Hakone. He hasn't raced much recently, but he is likely to appear in the Kanto 10-Miler the day after tomorrow. He is a runner who is highly likely to be entrusted with a key section on the return legs. The second is Rinto Ikema, a first-year student who has posted first-class times. Although he missed the Hakone qualifying race, he clocked 28:29 in the 10,000m at a record meet in early November, suddenly putting his name forward as a candidate for a key role. The third is Takuto Aramaki. He struggled in the Hakone qualifying race, finishing 9th on the team and 196th overall, but he posted a decent time at the recent Kosa 10-Miler. He is aiming for his first race after being entered for two consecutive years. He also ran in the 63-minute range at this year's student half-marathon, so I think he is a strong road runner.

Mountain Climbing Candidates

Candidates for the mountain climb include Tatsuya Furukawa and Ryuto Kawahara, both of whom have the ability to be key or supporting players on flat ground. Tatsuya Furukawa ran in the Kosa 10-Miler and finished near the top, competing well against corporate league runners. Ryuto Kawahara is also a rookie with supporting-player-level ability. He made an impressive debut in the 1st leg of the Prefectural Ekiden and entered the university with high expectations, and he recorded a time in the 62-minute range at the Ageo Half-Marathon. If both are in perfect condition, I expect one to run the mountain leg and the other to run a flat leg.

Mountain Descent Candidates

The candidates for the 6th leg are Ryusei Hayashi and Koshiro Tanimoto. Ryusei Hayashi has not raced at all since setting a personal best in the 10,000m at the end of October, but he made the 16-man entry list. I assume he is preparing for the 6th leg of Hakone. Intercollegiate 1500m champion Koshiro Tanimoto is another runner aiming for the 6th leg. He struggled in the Hakone qualifying race, but when it comes to a simple 20km distance race, I think Tanimoto has the edge between the two.

Competition for the 10th Spot

From here, I will list the remaining six runners aiming for a flat leg. I'll start with third-year student Yasumo Okura, who finished 6th in the Hakone qualifying race. While most of the new players this season don't have many times to their name, he has the strength not to collapse even in harsh environments, and he demonstrated his true potential in the Hakone qualifying race. Conversely, an upperclassman who shows his strengths on the track is Daiyu Ishioka. He appeared in the second group at the All-Japan qualifying race and gained experience in a major tournament. Emerging just before the deadline are first-year student Soma Nagahara and third-year student Shota Kanehara. Soma Nagahara, who entered with high expectations, struggled to adapt to the distance during the autumn road season, resulting in a difficult performance where he took over 70 minutes for the half-marathon in the Hakone qualifying race. However, he ran well at the Kosa 10-Miler and is gradually adapting to the distance. Shota Kanehara is a runner who won the 16-man spot by finishing at the top of the internal record meet just before the deadline. Aiming for a comeback is second-year student Yusei Kobayashi. In the spring, he posted good times of 1:03:19 in the student half-marathon and 28:57 in the 10,000m, establishing himself as a key player candidate. He struggled afterward but returned at the Ageo Half-Marathon in mid-November and is now back in the mix for Hakone.

Leg Predictions Based on Strength

Considerations

First, I think we can consider Asai's 2nd leg as certain. The undisputed ace of the team is aiming for revenge for his regrets in the same leg last year. I also think Hiroto Yoshioka is a lock for the 4th leg. He is a runner who has finally recovered in a season where he struggled. He is a runner I want to see perform well in a leg where he has had success before. Next, I personally think Ryuto Kawahara is a lock for the 5th leg. Considering he competed for the 5th leg spot last year, Coach Nagato must be aware of his ability, so I personally think it will be Ryuto Kawahara for the 5th leg. And I will predict that Tatsuya Furukawa, a key player who is confident in climbing, will be a weapon in the 8th leg. The 6th leg will likely be Koshiro Tanimoto. As an intercollegiate champion, I think he has the edge in flat-ground running speed over his competitor, Ryusei Hayashi. From here on, it's a matter of fitting them in, but I predict Kenshin Ebisawa, who ran the 3rd leg last year, will run the 9th leg. Given the team's situation with many lower-grade students, I think maximizing his strength by placing him in the 9th leg rather than the 3rd leg is the better strategy. I predict Rinto Ikema for the 1st leg; he has little experience with the half-marathon distance and there are concerns about the distance, but it shouldn't be too much of a problem for the 1st leg. I predict Riku Tamame, the top Japanese runner at the Kosa 10-Miler, for the 3rd leg. He is a future ace candidate whose condition is improving. Next, the 10th leg is a section where fourth-year students have been used with a very high probability in the past. I predict Shuto Horikoshi. Finally, for the 7th leg, I will predict Soma Nagahara from among the remaining runners based on his results at the Kosa 10-Miler.

Conclusion of Leg Predictions

Leg 1: Rinto Ikema, Leg 2: Koki Asai, Leg 3: Riku Tamame
Leg 4: Hiroto Yoshioka, Leg 5: Ryuto Kawahara
Leg 6: Koshiro Tanimoto, Leg 7: Soma Nagahara, Leg 8: Tatsuya Furukawa
Leg 9: Kenshin Ebisawa, Leg 10: Shoto Horikoshi

Goals and Outlook

The goal is, of course, to secure a seeded position.
To achieve that, they will need to break into the seeded range starting from a strong outbound leg. For that to happen, the target times will likely be around 67:00 for Asai on Leg 2, the low 62-minute range for Tamame on Leg 3, and around 62:00 for Yoshioka on Leg 4.

Key Players

Now, let's introduce three athletes who will influence the final ranking.

Koki Asai

The first is the ace, Asai.
Whether he can run in top condition, having barely appeared in any races since Hakone, will determine the rise or fall of Juntendo.
He has the potential to aim for a sub-67-minute run. We look forward to an ace-level performance from him.

Riku Tamame

The freshman, who is expected to be the next ace of Juntendo, has finally recovered from a knee injury.
Expectations are high.
If he can replicate his performance from the Kosa 10-Mile at Hakone, it will be a huge plus for the team.

Ryuto Kawahara

Expectations are placed on Kawahara for the mountain climb.
This also applies if Furukawa runs Leg 5, but if they can break 72 minutes on Leg 5, it will open up great possibilities.
His flat-ground running ability is better than last year, and since many schools competing for a seed have uncertainty regarding Leg 5 this year, a strong performance there will be a significant advantage.

Afterword

How was it? In this article, I discussed the strength analysis of Juntendo University, along with my leg predictions, strategy, and outlook. While there is some concern due to the lack of experience among the many strong first and second-year students, I believe their strength is on par with the seeded schools.
In the next article, I would like to write about the strength analysis, leg predictions, strategy, and outlook for Kanagawa University. I hope you will look forward to the next article as well.
Thank you for reading until the end.