Why are the tracks floating in mid-air? Four shocking facts revealed by JR Hokkaido's long-term suspension
*Please note that the image above is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the actual tracks or conditions; it is an image intended to match the title.
For many people who had planned their year-end homecoming or travel, the news of large-scale service suspensions on JR Hokkaido's major lines—the Nemuro Main Line, the Sekihoku Main Line, and the Senmo Main Line—was shocking. Numerous trains, including the Limited Express 'Ozora,' have been suspended, affecting the travel plans of many.
The Nemuro Main Line, in particular, suffered extensive damage. The cause reported was 'roadbed washout,' a term not often heard. The sight of the rails and sleepers appearing to float in mid-air, with the foundation beneath the tracks completely gone, speaks to the severity of the situation.
However, this event is not merely a railway trouble caused by bad weather. A deep analysis of the background reveals four shocking facts that demonstrate the structural vulnerability faced by JR Hokkaido and, by extension, Japan's regional infrastructure.
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1. The culprit was not heavy snow. The collapse of the 'seawall' protecting the tracks from the sea
The direct cause of this disaster was not the heavy snow that many might imagine. The most serious damage, which occurred between Onbetsu Station and Shiranuka Station on the Nemuro Main Line, was caused by a chain of destruction triggered by a developed low-pressure system that hit Hokkaido on December 14, 2025.
The process is as follows:
P1. A developed low-pressure system generated abnormal high waves or a storm surge along the coast.
P2. The tremendous power of those waves destroyed and collapsed the concrete defensive wall, or 'seawall,' which had been installed to protect the tracks from the sea.
P3. The 'roadbed,' which is the foundation of the tracks that had lost its protection, was directly exposed to the raging waves, and the soil and sand were washed away into the sea.
P4. As a result, the roadbed disappeared completely for about 20 meters, leading to a situation where only the rails and sleepers were left hanging in mid-air.
This is on a different level from a temporary service suspension due to simple weather conditions. It is an extremely serious situation where the defensive structure, which serves as the first line of defense and the last bastion to protect railway infrastructure from the harsh natural environment of the sea, has collapsed.
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2. A nightmare déjà vu. The same location was hit just two months ago
The most shocking fact about this disaster is that this section of the Nemuro Main Line, which suffered such extensive damage this time, had been hit in the same way very recently.
- In September 2025, record-breaking heavy rain caused by a linear precipitation zone led to a roadbed washout in the same area, including the section between Onbetsu Station and Shiranuka Station.
- At that time, it was also forced into a long-term suspension, but after desperate restoration work, service had just resumed on October 5.
In just over two months, the same location has fallen into dysfunction again. Even more serious is the fact that the causes of the two disasters are completely different. The damage in September was caused by forces from the land side, namely 'heavy rain,' while the damage this December was caused by forces from the sea side, namely 'high waves.'
This means that the vital line supporting logistics and human flow in eastern Hokkaido is exposed to the risk of a 'pincer attack' from natural disasters of completely different natures from both land and sea, making disaster prevention measures extremely difficult.
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3. This is not 'repair.' It is a 'massive civil engineering project' to rebuild the foundation from scratch
Many may wonder, 'Why does it take so long to restore?' The answer is that the restoration of a roadbed washout is not a simple 'repair' as we might imagine.
The work of restoring the lost roadbed is completely different from repair work like filling a hole in a house wall. It is, in itself, a 'large-scale civil engineering project' like rebuilding the foundation of a house from scratch on a vacant lot.
Restoration requires the following steps, broadly speaking:
S1. Reconstruction of the defensive wall: First, to prevent the collapse of the seawall that caused the issue, it is necessary to build a new, stronger seawall in the sea that can withstand future high waves.
S2. Reconstruction of the foundation: Next, the lost roadbed is rebuilt from scratch as a solid foundation that can safely support heavy trains for decades, while compacting many layers of various types of soil and crushed stone.
The reason JR Hokkaido is forced to officially announce that 'there is no prospect for resuming service' is because the scale of this construction is extremely large. Meanwhile, there is immense pressure on the site.
> 'Many customers use the line during the year-end and New Year holidays. We want to do our best to find a way to restore it by that time.' (Kazuya Watanabe, General Manager of Engineering, JR Hokkaido)
This highlights the severe dilemma between the reality of civil engineering technology, which is essential for ensuring safety, and the expectation of rapid restoration demanded by society.
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4. The creeping worst-case scenario. The heavy precedent set by the 'Hidaka Main Line'
Unfortunately, this is not the first time such catastrophic damage has occurred on a coastal line. JR Hokkaido has a very heavy precedent called the Hidaka Main Line.
The Hidaka Main Line also ran along the Pacific coast, but from 2015 onwards, it repeatedly suffered roadbed washout damage due to high waves and typhoons. The cost of its restoration was a staggering amount.
- 8.6 billion yen just for the restoration of the damaged sections
- An additional 5.3 billion yen for maintenance to ensure future safety
This enormous cost is not just a restoration issue for a single local line; it is of a scale that could shake the very management of JR Hokkaido, which is why it cannot be ignored when predicting the future of the Nemuro Main Line. Faced with these astronomical costs, negotiations between JR Hokkaido and local municipalities stalled, and eventually, the restoration of the damaged section as a railway was abandoned. It led to a de facto line closure in the form of a conversion to bus service.
This case of the Hidaka Main Line shows how difficult it is to restore a lost roadbed, especially a coastal one. And it confronts us with the harsh reality that no one can deny the possibility that the Nemuro Main Line, which is similarly exposed to threats from the sea and has been hit twice in one year, could follow the same path.
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Finally
The seawall shattered by high waves, the nightmare memory of a disaster just two months ago, and the harsh reality that the path to restoration is not a 'repair' but a 'massive civil engineering project.' Behind all of this, the heavy precedent of the Hidaka Main Line, where the line was abandoned in the past, casts a shadow. This event is not just a railway problem; it poses a larger challenge to us: how to protect the vital infrastructure that supports our society against increasingly severe natural disasters.
This disaster may indicate that the battle to protect the lifeline of eastern Hokkaido has entered a new phase. Will the Nemuro Main Line follow the same path as the Hidaka Main Line?
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