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The Reality of 'No Gasoline' in Kenya | Fuel Prices Hit Record Highs, Spotlight on the EV Market!

横山（凡）- ケニア拠点で事業開発支援 @ アクセルアフリカ

Living in Nairobi, there is something that has been bothering me for the past few weeks.Even though there should be a gasoline shortage, this city is still functioning 'normally'.

Newspapers are reporting on the impact, and in rural areas, long lines have already begun to form at gas stations, so the effects are gradually spreading.

On the other hand, most gas stations in Nairobi are still operating as usual, and while there have been small protests, there are no loud voices complaining about fuel shortages.

However, this silence feels eerie. That is because the numbers are already indicating a crisis.

Just yesterday, gasoline prices soared to 206 KES (approx. 247 JPY) per liter. Considering it was 178 KES (approx. 213 JPY) last month, that is a 15% increase.


The cause is the worsening situation in the Middle East

The cause is the rapid deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. Since March 2026, military tensions surrounding Iran have affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening the global crude oil supply.

Kenya, which relies entirely on imports for its oil, is taking the brunt of this.

On April 2nd, Finance Minister Mbadi announced in a television report that the country's fuel reserves were only enough for 16 days of gasoline, 19 days of diesel, and 49 days of jet fuel.

Kenyan petroleum regulations require importers to maintain a minimum of 21 days of reserves, but gasoline and diesel have already fallen below that standard.

The government explains that 'reserves will recover to 47 days once the scheduled ships arrive', but when those ships will arrive depends on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

It seems the Kenyan government is refraining from major reporting, perhaps to prevent panic.

The fact that daily life in Nairobi is still 'normal' while reserves are below the legal standard—this gap is what is most frightening to those of us on the ground.

Quietly preparing for a 'fuel-less society'

This fuel crisis is gradually affecting every corner of life.

It is said to be already serious in rural areas. In counties in the Central Province such as Murang'a, Meru, Nyeri, and Kirinyaga, gas stations have been forced to close temporarily.

In Nakuru, the fuel shortage has caused matatu (shared bus) fares to skyrocket, hitting the household budgets of commuters.

The Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) has issued warnings to oil marketing companies regarding 'hoarding and price manipulation,' and the situation has even escalated to the arrest and resignation of high-ranking officials in the Ministry of Energy.

Kenya Airways is no exception. It has become difficult to secure jet fuel, and reports indicate an impact on the April flight schedule.

I am planning a temporary return to Japan in May, and whether the flight will actually take off—this is not a joke, but a real conversation happening among foreigners living in Nairobi.

Meanwhile, although not widely reported, international organizations and companies in Kenya have begun to take their own measures.

The EV Shift Accelerating Behind the Fuel Crisis

On the other hand, interest in the EV market, particularly electric motorcycles, has visibly increased due to this fuel crisis.

I myself have started seriously considering calling an electric motorcycle via Uber or Bolt if gasoline becomes unavailable. In fact, this has already become a realistic option.

As of early 2026, over 40% of motorcycle riders in Kenya have switched to electric motorcycles on Bolt (a ride-hailing app).

It is reported that over 1,700 riders have switched to electric motorcycles through finance programs, reducing fuel and maintenance costs by a combined total of approximately 75%.Uber has also already deployed 3,000 electric motorcycles in Kenya.

This trend was already steadily progressing before the fuel crisis occurred.

The number of registered EVs in Kenya has surged approximately 28-fold in just three years, from 1,378 in 2022 to 39,324 in 2025.Electric motorcycles now account for 15% of new vehicle sales, and battery-swapping stations are also increasing.

Cheche, which operates mainly in Nairobi, has installed 12 battery-swapping stations and built a network supporting 500 motorcycles with approximately 1,200 batteries.

In the electric bus sector, BasiGo has over 100 electric buses running in the Nairobi metropolitan area and is also expanding to intercity routes.

Roam has raised $19.5 million (approximately 2.9 billion yen) for the production of electric motorcycle batteries and the expansion of swapping stations.

Power consumption for electric buses and motorcycles reached 4.57 gigawatt-hours in the second half of 2025 alone, showing phenomenal growth of 152% compared to the same period the previous year.

3 Reasons Why EVs are 'Hitting the Mark' in Kenya

This rapid growth is not a temporary boom; there is a structural background.

1. The Vulnerability of Being a 100% Oil-Importing Country

Kenya consumes about 100,000 barrels of oil per day, but it relies almost entirely on imports.Every time a Middle East crisis like this occurs, the entire country is shaken.

EVs are being promoted nationally from the perspective of energy security as a means to break away from this 'single-legged reliance on imported oil.'

2. 90% of Electricity is Renewable Energy

Kenya's power grid is centered on geothermal, hydroelectric, and wind power, with the renewable energy ratio reaching approximately 90%.

In other words, switching to EVs simultaneously realizes a transition from 'imported fossil fuels' to 'domestically produced clean energy.'

This is a unique advantage for Kenya, fundamentally different from countries like South Africa that rely on coal-fired power..

③ Full-scale launch of national policy—fuel crisis as a 'tailwind'

In February 2026, the Kenyan government officially announced its 'National e-Mobility Policy'..

The policy includes zero-rating VAT on electric motorcycles, electric buses, and lithium-ion batteries, as well as exemptions from excise duty. It also incorporates tax incentives for EV manufacturing and assembly businesses, and reductions in stamp duty for the installation of charging infrastructure..

Having moved past the pilot project stage, the country has now shifted gears into a full-scale national strategy.

Even more noteworthy is that the Kenyan government is beginning to view this fuel crisis as an 'opportunity for EV transition'..

According to reports, the government has decided to revise its previously planned purchase of 2,500 official vehicles, opting instead to switch to 3,000 domestically assembled EVs..

Leveraging the energy risks brought about by the Middle East situation as a catalyst to accelerate the shift away from oil dependence—this decision by the Kenyan government can be considered a rational choice, given the reality that annual oil import costs of approximately $5 billion (about 750 billion yen) are putting pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves..

The 'next landscape' seen by startups and VCs

In the Nairobi startup scene, the view is spreading that this fuel crisis will act as a tailwind for EV investment.

Roam, BasiGo, Spiro, Arc Ride, and Cheche—EV startups based in Kenya have already secured large-scale funding from global VCs.BasiGo's Series A reached $42.5 million (about 6.4 billion yen).

What investors are focusing on is the superiority of the 'Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)' of EVs..

In Kenya, the TCO of electric motorcycles is said to be 30-40% lower than that of gasoline motorcycles. If fuel prices soar, that gap will widen even further.

This fuel crisis has confronted every citizen with the message that 'EVs are more economically rational,' not just through numbers, but through lived experience.

Furthermore, word-of-mouth from Boda Boda (motorcycle taxi) riders has become a powerful engine for adoption.

'My monthly fuel costs dropped to a quarter after switching to an EV'—this information is spreading rapidly in conversations among riders waiting in lines at gas stations.

A fuel crisis is also a turning point

The streets of Nairobi are still moving 'normally.' However, no one knows how long that normalcy will last.

Will flights in May take off? What will happen to gasoline prices next month? As someone living in Kenya, there is certainly anxiety.

However, at the same time, the view from the ground is that this crisis is becoming a turning point that will accelerate the EV shift all at once..

The government is switching its official vehicles to EVs, startups are expanding their electric motorcycle networks, and ride-hailing app drivers are moving away from gasoline one after another.

The number of electric motorcycles quietly riding through the streets of Nairobi is definitely increasing.

That sight feels like a symbol of the future of transportation and energy in Kenya.

❚ Serial Series "Three Questions the Middle East Crisis Has Posed to Africa"

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Kenya's fuel crisis highlights that Africa's energy structure is reaching a turning point.

EV motorcycles, buses, battery swapping, and charging infrastructure—a new mobility ecosystem is being formed at a rapid pace on the ground right now.

Axcel Africa has a vision to 'contribute to Africa's sustainable growth by connecting Japan and African countries and co-creating businesses that solve social issues,' and covers major African countries from its base in Kenya, including its office and community house.

From market research in the EV mobility and clean energy sectors to supporting business partnerships with local startups, we support Japanese companies' entry into Africa with on-the-ground expertise.

If you are thinking about 'turning Africa's EV shift into a business opportunity,' please feel free to contact us.

❚ Information Sources


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