Unstoppable Inflation—How Much Will the Takaichi Supplementary Budget Support Households?
Good morning! The weekend was comfortable, with temperatures that felt cool rather than cold, but today marks the start of December.
❓Question
Amidst persistent inflation, will the 18.3 trillion yen supplementary budget—
truly lead to "livelihood security" and "economic growth"?
🌿Background
In November 2025, the Takaichi administration approved a 18.3 trillion yen general account supplementary budget proposal at a cabinet meeting. It is reported that they rejected the
14 trillion yen scale proposal initially presented by the Ministry of Finance as "too meager," increasing it by approximately 4 trillion yen.
Behind this large-scale expansion are:
Unstoppable inflation
Tensions in the international situation
Global investment competition in growth sectors
and other "unfinished tasks."
📘 The "Three Pillars" of the Takaichi Administration's Supplementary Budget Proposal
(Comprehensive Economic Measures: 17.7028 trillion yen) Looking at
👇️, it is clear that significant weight is placed on measures against inflation.
① Livelihood Security and Inflation Response (8.9041 trillion yen, approx. 50%)
Winter electricity and gas subsidies (households 7,000 yen x 3 months)
Benefit of 20,000 yen per child
Regional food coupons (rice, vegetables, etc.)
Support for the needy
Subsidies for rising costs of social welfare services
② Crisis Management Investment and Growth Investment (6.433 trillion yen, approx. 36%)
Strategic investment in AI, semiconductors, etc.
Strengthening supply chains
Support for foundational industries such as shipbuilding and materials
Cybersecurity and DX for small and medium-sized enterprises
③ Strengthening defense and diplomatic capabilities (1.656 trillion yen, approx. 9%)
Enhancement of defense equipment
Expenses related to the realignment of U.S. forces
Strengthening diplomatic foundations
+ Reserve funds (709.8 billion yen)
📺 The "Reality of Inflation" Seen in NHK Reports
In a report at the end of November, NHK conveyed the reality of inflation hitting consumers directly as follows.
👉️ Especially rising prices for daily necessities
● Rising vegetable prices (due to climate factors)
Cabbage → +30-50% compared to the same month last year
Lettuce, Chinese cabbage, spinach → +15-30%
Growth delayed due to rising temperatures, leading to decreased shipments
Further impact from rising distribution costs
● Overall price increases
Household survey: Due to the impact of rising prices for daily necessities,
a 4.2% increase compared to the previous year (October)Dining out +6.8%
Continued price hikes for processed foods (+8.7%)
Electricity rates: +16% (re-increase in fuel cost adjustments)
Gasoline prices: 168.8 yen for regular average as of 11/25 (-1 yen from previous week, lowest in 2.5 years)
→ The structure where the burden of living does not decrease continues.
Such a situation is leading to the government's strengthening of 'livelihood security'.
🏛 Opposition Party Reactions
Constitutional Democratic Party (Representative Noda)
'Scale-first approach. There is also a lot of low-urgency spending'
'Issuing an additional 11.7 trillion yen in government bonds is a bill for the future'
'Doubts about immediate effectiveness' of rice coupons, etc.
Japanese Communist Party
'There is no consumption tax cut. The effectiveness of wage increases is also poor'
'The content of livelihood support is thin'
Democratic Party for the People
'Active fiscal policy is appreciated'
Continuing to demand childcare support and measures for the 'annual income wall'
→ A composition where evaluations and criticisms are divided.
🗳 Future Outlook
The supplementary budget bill will be submitted to the Diet, with the goal of passage by mid-December.
Furthermore, there is another movement in the political situation.
● Ruling party 're-secures' a majority in the House of Representatives
Three independent lawmakers (formerly of the Ishin party) joined the Liberal Democratic Party parliamentary group
As a parliamentary group,233 seats = the majority line toward
With this,
the possibility of the supplementary budget passing has increased significantly.
🧭 Today's Insight (Thoughts)
This supplementary budget proposal is
the largest scale of fiscal stimulus aimed at balancing 'livelihood support' and 'growth investment'.
On the other hand, inflation is becoming prolonged, livelihood support measures are 'stopgap' in nature, and structural wage increases or tax reforms have yet to be addressed.
The more I look at the numbers, the more I feel that
rather than the 'scale of the budget,' 'which expenditures will be most effective for livelihood and growth' is what is being questioned.
💬 Question for Readers
From the perspective of your household budget,
which expenditure in this supplementary budget do you think will be the most 'effective'?
📸 The header image was created by hatchi333 and used with permission.