[Era of Turmoil Series] Era of Turmoil Series Research Report 5: On Food Supply Due to Climate Change
Part 5: Impact on the Fisheries Industry (From Chapter 1)
In the previous installment (Part 4), we discussed the impact on forest regions.
In this installment (Part 5), as the conclusion to Chapter 1, we will examine the impact on the fisheries industry. We will organize the crises facing the world's "other food foundation" from three perspectives: changes in fishing grounds due to rising seawater temperatures, ocean acidification and changes in marine ecosystems, and challenges in adapting to aquaculture.
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■ Chapter 1(4)① Changes in Fishing Grounds Due to Rising Seawater Temperatures
Climate change is bringing about significant shifts in the distribution of fishing grounds through rising seawater temperatures. The growth environments for cold-water fish species (such as salmon and trout) that are sensitive to water temperature are becoming harsh, raising concerns about growth inhibition and increased mortality rates due to high temperatures. It has also been pointed out that the northward migration of target fish species could potentially create new conflicts over fishing rights between fishing nations. On the other hand, even if productivity is temporarily maintained in aquaculture in warmer waters, problems such as water quality deterioration, disease outbreaks, and increased frequency of algal blooms (such as red tides) will accumulate.
■ Chapter 1(4)② Ocean Acidification and Changes in Marine Ecosystems
The rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentration is accelerating ocean acidification through absorption by the ocean, which threatens the habitats of marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons, such as shellfish, coral reefs, and plankton. Coral reef bleaching is a serious phenomenon that directly hits the foundation of tropical fisheries and has already been observed in various parts of the world. Changes in marine ecosystems also affect commercial fish species at the top of the food chain, bringing significant uncertainty to the medium- to long-term outlook for fisheries production.
■ Chapter 1(4)③ Challenges in Adapting to Aquaculture (Marine and Land-based)
In marine aquaculture, simultaneous responses to multiple climate change impacts, such as rising seawater temperatures, acidification, sea-level rise, and an increase in extreme weather events, are required. In land-based aquaculture, challenges such as salinization and depletion of freshwater resources, land constraints, and increased water temperature management costs are accumulating. Rising temperatures also increase socio-economic burdens, such as higher operating costs for land-based aquaculture facilities (increased demand for air conditioning and cooling, and higher transport fuel consumption) and frequent equipment damage due to heavy rain and typhoons. Existing research points out that these impacts are particularly devastating for small-scale operators and low-income regions. According to the FAO's "The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA) 2024," global animal production from aquaculture reached 94 million tons in 2022, surpassing the 91 million tons of capture fisheries production for the first time in history, accounting for 51% of animal-based aquatic product production.
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■ From the Perspective of May 2026
This section was written in May 2025. How has it deepened one year later?
✅ Points Where the Analysis at the Time Became Reality
"Coral reef bleaching" has become even more serious—large-scale bleaching continues:
In Australia's Great Barrier Reef, large-scale coral bleaching has continued through 2025–2026, and the analysis at the time that "changes in marine ecosystems bring significant uncertainty to fisheries production" has proven correct. The loss of the foundation for tropical fisheries is accelerating as a real-world problem.
⚠️ Situations That Have Changed or New Perspectives Added
The Iran War—Impact on the fisheries industry in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea:
Due to the Iran War in February 2026, the marine environment around the Strait of Hormuz is exposed to the risks of pollution and acoustic pollution from military activities. There are concerns about the impact on fisheries and aquaculture in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, and the "double blow" of climate change and conflict is putting pressure on the fisheries industry in the Middle East.
Inter-state conflicts over the "northward migration of fishing grounds"—becoming reality in the Arctic Ocean and the Sea of Japan:
The northward migration of fish species due to rising seawater temperatures is creating new international tensions over fishing rights in the Arctic Ocean and the Sea of Japan. Due in part to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, fisheries agreements in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan have become unstable, and the analysis at the time that "changes in fishing grounds will become a new spark for international conflict" is becoming a reality.
▶ Next Post Schedule: [Era of Turmoil Series, Research Report 5, Part 6] Chapter 2(1): Global Food Demand Toward 2100
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#Fisheries #OceanAcidification #CoralReefs #FishingGroundChanges #Aquaculture #SeaSurfaceTemperature #MarineFisheries #EraOfConfusion #ResearchReport #ClimateChange
Tomoki Anan
Freelance generative AI researcher / Regular member of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence (JSAI)
Psychological Counselor (anan room) / Freelance Consultant (formerly Emily Consultant)
Winner of the Inno-vation 2023 Corporate Special Award / Persona Authentication (Patent Pending)