Three Post-Pandemic Evolutionary Scenarios: From the Book 'Global Civil War'

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The Essential Cracks in the Capitalist System Exposed by COVID-19

In March 2020, when the topic of 'working from home' first came up at your workplace, didn't you think, 'Well, it'll probably only be for about two weeks'? You surely never imagined that four years later, the world would have changed so fundamentally.

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world, many thought it was a 'temporary crisis.' In reality, however, this pandemic merely brought to the surface the structural crisis of global capitalism that was already underway. In other words, the virus was just the trigger; the explosives had been set long before.

The latest analysis by sociologist William I. Robinson reveals that the current world has effectively entered a state of 'global civil war.' Some may feel this expression is an exaggeration, but the numbers bring the reality into focus.

As of 2018, more than half of the world's wealth is monopolized by the top 1% of humanity. To put this in perspective, if you live in a town of 1,000 people, it means that just 10 people hold half of the town's total wealth. Of the remaining 990, 800 are forced to live on just 5% of the town's total wealth.

This extreme inequality widened even further during the pandemic. In the United States alone, the ultra-wealthy increased their assets by $931 billion between March and October 2020, while 60 million people lost their jobs. That is approximately 100 trillion yen—an amount comparable to Japan's national budget. In other words, while people were suffering from COVID, the wealthy made a profit equivalent to one year of Japan's national budget.

The 'Terminal Illness' of Capitalism—The Vicious Cycle of Falling Profit Rates and Over-accumulation

Some might think, 'Isn't it normal for the economy to go through ups and downs?' That is true, but this crisis is different in nature from typical business cycles.

Capitalism has a fatal internal contradiction built into it. The 'law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall,' which Marx pointed out 150 years ago, is currently becoming a reality.

Let me explain simply. To win in competition, companies are constantly introducing more efficient machines and technologies. This allows them to produce more goods with fewer workers. However, the source of profit lies only in human labor. No matter how high-performance a machine is, it does not create new value by itself.

Due to this contradiction, the average profit rate, which was 15% during the post-war 'Golden Age,' fell to 10% by the late 1980s and to 6% by 2017. Companies are being forced into more intense competition for smaller profits.

At the same time, 'over-accumulation' is becoming more serious. The cash held by the world's 2,000 largest corporations swelled from $6.6 trillion in 2010 to $14.2 trillion in 2020. This is equivalent to about 20% of the entire world's GDP. Even though companies are making record profits, they cannot put that money into investment. This is because they cannot expect sufficient profit even if they invest.

If you were a business owner, what would you do if you were convinced that you could not recover the profit on your investment even if you built a factory or hired workers? Naturally, you would refrain from investing and hoard cash. As a result of every company in the world making the same decision, the entire economy stagnates—this is the true nature of over-accumulation.

The Elaborate Mechanism of Digital Domination—How Invisible Chains Are Created

During the pandemic, many people became accustomed to remote work and online meetings. Many likely felt, 'This has become more convenient.' However, hidden behind this 'acceleration of digitalization' is a more elaborate mechanism of control.

Technology giants saw their market value explode during the pandemic. Apple and Microsoft, which each had a corporate value of $1.4 trillion at the beginning of 2020, swelled to $2.08 trillion and $1.63 trillion respectively by the end of the year. That is nearly 50% growth in one year. This means that while people around the world were locked in their homes, their dependence on digital infrastructure increased dramatically.

However, the real change lies not in the increase in corporate value, but in the structural change in domination. In traditional manufacturing industries with factories, workers gathered to work, making it easier for solidarity to form among them. The feeling of being 'colleagues working together' fostered class consciousness.

However, the situation is completely different with digital labor. Office workers working from home, Uber drivers, Amazon delivery workers—they formally work for the 'same company,' but in reality, they are physically separated and do not even know of each other's existence.

The wristbands for Amazon warehouse workers are symbolic. This device monitors the hand movements of workers in real-time and uses vibrations to convey warnings such as 'Your work efficiency is declining,' 'Your break time is too long,' or 'A nose-scratching motion has been detected.' Workers are forced towork in isolation while under 24-hour surveillance.

This is the modern version of the 'Panopticon' (an all-seeing surveillance system). The surveillance society described by Foucault has been completed through digital technology. What is even more clever is that the workers themselves accept this surveillance system while feeling that it is 'convenient' and 'efficient.'

Power has evolved from physical violence to psychological manipulation

When hearing the term 'surveillance society,' many people might imagine the secret police of the former Soviet Union or surveillance cameras in China. However, modern systems of control are much more sophisticated.

What those in power fear most is not popular rebellion or riots. What they fear most is peoplestarting to think for themselves. That is why modern control is specialized in 'preventing people from thinking.'

Recall the information control during the pandemic. 'Follow the experts,' 'Trust the science,' 'The safety of the vaccine has been confirmed'—these messages were repeated across all media. Questioning was labeled as 'anti-scientific' or 'conspiracy theory.'

What is important here is not the truth or falsehood of the information. It is that an atmosphere was created wherethe act of questioning itself is evil. 'Why is it necessary?' 'Who benefits?' 'Are there other options?'—these natural questions became subjects of social sanction.

This method is extremely effective. Violent suppression invites backlash, butvoluntary suspension of thoughtdoes not even generate backlash. People willingly follow authority and believe that obedience to authority is the 'correct behavior.'

Platforms like Facebook, Google, and Twitter (now X) are at the core of this psychological manipulation. Through algorithms, only 'appropriate information' is displayed, and 'inappropriate information' is automatically excluded. Users do not even realize they are being censored.

The precise profit structure of giant pharmaceutical companies and vaccine interests

In the pandemic response, the profit-seeking structure of the pharmaceutical industry also became clear. Understanding the revenue model of this industry reveals why the focus is placed on 'management rather than cure' and 'treatment rather than prevention.'

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, under circumstances where private funding accounts for approximately 70% of the WHO (World Health Organization) budget, exertsa decisive influence on vaccine development and distribution policies. This means that public health policy is effectively swayed by the interests of private corporations.

The strategy of the Gates Foundation is extremely clear. To summarize what Melinda Gates herself said in 2012: 'If you present pharmaceutical companies with a huge, guaranteed market of vaccinating millions of children and provide appropriate research funding, the companies will definitely develop the vaccine.'

What is noteworthy is the expression 'guaranteed market.' In normal business, you develop a product and then look for customers, but in the vaccine market, the customers (all of humanity) are guaranteed beforehand. Huge profits are promised with zero risk.

The case of Gilead Sciences blatantly shows the essence of this industry. The company achieved a cure rate of over 90% with its hepatitis C treatment, but Goldman Sachs questioned in a 2018 report, 'Is curing patients a sustainable business model?' The reason is simple. Patients who are cured do not become a source of continuous income.

In other words, the ideal drug for a pharmaceutical company is one that 'alleviates symptoms but does not completely cure.' Insulin for diabetes, antihypertensive drugs for high blood pressure, antidepressants for depression—these turn patients into 'customers' for life. On the other hand, vaccines that completely prevent infectious diseases or treatments that eradicate cancer are 'bad products' in terms of business models.

Suppose you are a shareholder of a pharmaceutical company and you invest 10 billion yen annually in research and development. Would you invest in a project that completely cures a disease and loses the patient, or a project that manages the disease and keeps the patient? In the logic of capitalism, it is 'rational' to choose the latter.

The sophisticated mechanism of information control that mainstream media does not report

There is something many people wonder: 'Why are such important issues not reported on television or in newspapers?'

The answer is simple.It is because major media companies themselves are part of the existing power structure.However, this is not a conspiracy theory. It is a fact that anyone can verify by organizing publicly available information.

The world's major media are controlled by six giant corporations. These companies have close shareholding relationships with the military-industrial complex, financial capital, and tech companies. For example, BlackRock and Vanguard are major shareholders in both media companies and in military and pharmaceutical industries.

In other words, for media companies, reporting on the current crisis as a 'structural and fundamental problem' would be an act thatharms the interests of their own major shareholders.Much of their advertising revenue also comes from these same giant corporations.

What happens instead isfragmented news,,focus on individual events,,and steering the discussion toward superficial symptomatic treatments. Even if 'whether vaccines work or not' is debated, structural problems such as 'why public health systems are fragile' or 'who is profiting from pandemic response' are avoided.

'Fact-checking' and 'misinformation countermeasures' also actually function asspeech control systems. The criteria for what information is considered a 'fact' and what is 'misinformation' are set to be convenient for the power structure.

What is interesting is that this censorship system is operated 'democratically.' Instead of the government censoring directly, private companies (Facebook, Google, Twitter) perform censorship 'voluntarily.' This avoids criticism of 'government intervention in freedom of speech.'

When you make a 'strange post' on social media, your account being frozen is not due to government instructions. It is processed as a 'violation of terms of service' by a private company. However, the criteria for those terms of service are determined in close cooperation with government agencies and 'expert' organizations. As a result, the same effect as government censorship is achieved.

A Fork in the Road to the Future: Three Scenarios for the Evolution of Capitalism

The current world could head in one of three major directions. The seeds of each scenario already exist in reality.

Scenario 1: Completion of Digital Feudalism Tech companies and the government merge completely, establishing a 'digital feudalism' where all of humanity is under digital surveillance. Through Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), individual economic activity is completely managed, and behavior is controlled by a social credit system.

In this scenario, your bank account balance is tracked by the government in real-time, and 'inappropriate spending' (such as purchasing books critical of the government or donating to anti-establishment groups) is automatically restricted. Freedom of movement is also managed via digital ID. 'Good citizens' can move freely, but 'problematic citizens' have their movement restricted.

Scenario 2: Neo-Fascism and Civilizational Collapse Due to the expansion of economic crises and social unrest, authoritarian regimes rise in various countries, and international military conflicts occur frequently. Ethnic, religious, and class conflicts intensify, leading to chaos at the level of civilizational collapse.

In this scenario, direct conflict between major powers possessing nuclear weapons could cause irreversible damage to human civilization. Combined with accelerating environmental problems, the Earth's population-carrying capacity will plummet, leading to a state of 'war of all against all' for survival.

Scenario 3: Transition to a Decentralized Democratic Society Popular uprisings unite globally, and throughtransnational reform movements, the capitalist system itself is democratically transformed. Technology is utilized as a tool for human liberation, and adecentralized, participatory democratic new society is built.

In this scenario, the current monopoly by giant corporations is dismantled, and technology is managed as a public good. Working hours are significantly reduced, and artificial intelligence and robots replace simple labor. Humans become able to spend their time on creative activities and contributions to the community.

At this moment, Scenario 1 is the most realistic. This is because the existing power structure is steadily making preparations in this direction. However, the possibility of Scenario 3 has not been completely lost.

The Future You Think About While Drinking Morning Coffee

Tomorrow morning, when you watch the news while drinking your coffee as usual, what will be on the screen? The world in one year or five years will change significantly based on the choices made today.

Perhaps the smartphone screen will display 'Digital ID presentation required.' A society where every action, from shopping at a convenience store to riding a train, is digitally recorded and managed. Through Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), 'inappropriate spending' is automatically restricted, and those with low social credit scores are excluded from basic services.

Alternatively, it might be a society where barter is actively practiced in local shopping districts, vegetables are shared directly from neighboring farmers, and the local economy revolves around community currency. Human-scale economic zones that do not rely on the supply chains of large corporations are being formed in various places.

Both futures already exist as seeds of reality. While the introduction of digital surveillance systems is steadily progressing, experiments with alternative economic systems are also beginning all over the world. Although those who have noticed the invisible chains are still a minority, they are by no means a small number. And this realization is irreversible. We are standing at a crossroads in history. Moreover, it is a delicate crossroads where we cannot predict where it leads.

The idea that the accumulation of small individual choices determines the direction of society as a whole has more meaning than a trite cliché. I believe this, and that is why I tweet every day. To enjoy my morning coffee.