The 'Vacant House Cleanup' Needed Before Utilization: Why Vacant Houses Now Require 'Triage'

Today, while touring vacant houses, someone mentioned, "We've already been through a cycle of vacant house utilization, haven't we?"
All kinds of vacant house utilization projects have garnered attention, only to lose steam later...
As the homes of the baby boomer generation begin to become vacant, it's fair to say—though it may sound harsh—that we are heading toward an oversupply.

This might be sudden, but when you think, "I want to do something about this vacant house," what is the first thing that comes to mind?

Renovating it to rent out, turning it into a vacation rental, making it a share house... the conversation tends to jump straight to utilization.
I used to answer such inquiries by saying, "Here are some ways you can utilize it," and I still do today.

However, my way of thinking has changed a little recently.

What I want to write about today is the idea that"vacant houses need to be organized before they can be utilized."By 'organized,' I don't just mean tidying up.
I'm talking about 'organization' in a much broader sense.

Vacant houses cannot be utilized immediately

Examples of vacant house utilization have increased significantly over the past few years.
I often see news about old folk houses being renovated into rentals for new residents, or abandoned school buildings being turned into co-working spaces.

I can certainly understand the feeling of thinking, "I see, maybe my vacant house could be used that way too."

However, to be honest about the reality I often see in the field, there are so many cases where things get stuck in the pre-utilization stage.

For example, a large amount of household goods remains in the house, and no one has made a decision to clear them out.
Inheritance procedures haven't been completed, or the siblings haven't reached an agreement.
No one has grasped the extent of the damage to the building.
And fundamentally, no one has researched whether there is actually any demand for that land.

If you say "let's utilize it" while the house is in this state, the conversation won't move forward at all.
In fact, by talking about utilization first, there are cases where the owners actually become more confused.
They end up stuck in a state of, "I have the desire to rent it out, but I don't know what to do first."

From now on, vacant houses are not things that can be utilized immediately. That is what I believe.

What will increase from now on are 'indecisive vacant houses'

Some of you may have heard the term 'the 2033 problem.'
Roughly speaking, it refers to the prediction that about one-third of all houses in Japan might become vacant.

The increase in numbers is, in a sense, within the expected range.
What I am concerned about is the steady increase in 'indecisive vacant houses' among them.

What does it mean to be 'indecisive'? It refers to a state where the owner wants to dispose of the property but cannot move forward because the rights are complex, or they cannot bring themselves to demolish it because of family memories, or they have consulted with several companies but each one says something different, so they don't know which is correct.

In other words, they arevacant houses where decision-making has stalled.

I believe these types of vacant houses will continue to increase due to the diversification of inheritance and changes in family structures.
To me, the increase in vacant houses themselves is less concerning than the increase in vacant houses that are left abandoned without any decisions being made.
The problem isn't the number of vacant houses; it's that they are being left abandoned. That is a belief I have held consistently.

Vacant house organization is not tidying up, it is triage

Here, I would like to intentionally use the term 'vacant house organization.'

Clearing out household goods is, of course, part of the organization.
But the vacant house organization I am talking about is a much broader concept.

In the medical field, there is a term called triage.
It is a system used in emergencies to quickly assess a patient's condition and prioritize treatment.
It is a concept used in emergency medicine during disasters, but I feel it is now necessary for vacant houses as well.

In other words, vacant houses also need triage.

I have previously used the term 'triage' to argue against the idea of immediate demolition of vacant houses, but what I mean now is that this triage is also necessary as a preliminary stage before utilization.

Specifically, this involves the following sorting process.

Sorting household goods: Deciding what to keep, what to dispose of, and what someone will take as a memento.
Sorting rights: Whether inheritance has been settled, who the registered owner is, and how to reach an agreement if there are multiple heirs.
Sorting family intentions: Often, there is a mix of people who want to sell, keep, or are undecided. First, clarify 'what the family wants to do.'
Building diagnosis: Whether repairs are needed, how much it will cost, and whether it is even in a condition to be renovated.
Regional diagnosis: Whether there is rental demand in that location, what the regional population trends are, and what the local government's vacant house policy is.
Sorting management policies: Whether to utilize it, manage it, or consider demolition.

I believe that only when these six elements are in place can we discuss 'what to do with this house.'

Conversely, if you proceed with discussions about utilization or demolition while even one of these is missing, you will inevitably get stuck somewhere later. This is a scene I often see in the field.

Decisions change based on location, building, regionality, and surrounding environment

It is often said in a binary opposition that 'vacant houses should be utilized' or 'no, they should be demolished and turned into vacant land,' but I don't think it's either.

The correct answer depends on the specific vacant house. That is all.

For example, a 50-year-old wooden detached house in a mountainous area of the countryside and a 30-year-old detached house in a residential area near a city are completely different stories, even if they are both 'vacant houses'.
The former might be too costly to utilize and not profitable.
The latter might attract tenants immediately if renovated and put on the rental market.

Even within the same region, demand is completely different between a location 5 minutes' walk from the station and one 30 minutes away by car.

Therefore, to find the 'correct answer' for a vacant house, it is necessary to look comprehensively at the location conditions, building state, regional demand, and changes in the surrounding environment.
Judging by looking at only one factor will not work in the field.

When asked, 'Can my vacant house be utilized?', I always say, 'Let's take a proper look first.' The answer comes after looking.

Houses to keep, houses to manage, houses to utilize, and houses to consider for demolition

As a result of triage, I think it is easier to organize vacant houses by considering them in four broad directions.

① Houses to keep: Houses that no one will live in for the time being but that you want to preserve as family memories. However, this assumes regular management rather than abandonment.

② Houses to manage: Houses that will not be utilized or sold immediately, but are properly maintained to keep future options open. Deterioration is prevented by continuing maintenance such as weeding, ventilation, running water, and inspections.

③ Houses to utilize: Houses that have a use in some form, such as for rent, sale, private lodging, or regional use. This becomes an option when demand matches the state of the building.

④ Houses to consider for demolition: An option to consider when the building is severely damaged, renovation costs are too high, no demand is expected, or it is difficult to continue management. Demolition is not 'giving up,' but a decision to open up new possibilities.

When I apply these four categories to vacant houses across Japan, I personally suspect that category ②, 'houses to be managed,' is actually the most common.
It's difficult to utilize them immediately, but the owners don't want to let them go either. There are many such houses.

If that is the case, a system to properly maintain these 'houses to be managed' might be what is needed most right now.

The New Role Required of Vacant House Managers

The concept of 'vacant house sorting' that I have written about so far is directly linked to how the work of a vacant house manager should be.

The role required of vacant house managers until now has mainly been 'management'.
Visiting the site regularly, checking the condition of the building, and reporting to the owner. That is, of course, an important job.

However, I believe that from now on, we will need people who can 'stand at the entrance of sorting'.

Someone who can walk alongside the owner from the stage where they are 'unsure what to do'.
Someone who can help with communication between family members.
Someone who can look at the building, look at the local area, confirm the rights, and then sort things out by saying, 'This direction is realistic for this house'.

It is a role that could be called, so to speak, a vacant house triager.

This cannot be covered by a single type of expert.
It requires the ability to cross-connect knowledge of real estate, building diagnostics, law, family/inheritance, and local information.
Even if you cannot do it alone, it is sufficient if you have a system in place where you can do it as a team.

Real estate companies, architects, judicial scriveners, administrative scriveners, memento sorting companies, demolition contractors, renovation companies, local real estate agents, and municipal officials. All these stakeholders exist around vacant houses.

I believe that the new significance of the vacant house manager lies in connecting this network and taking the owner from a state of confusion to a state where they can 'see a direction'.

Shifting the Entrance of Vacant House Measures from 'Utilization' to 'Sorting'

So, let me summarize today's discussion.

I feel that the era where we placed the entrance to the vacant house problem on 'utilization' is gradually changing.

Utilization is, of course, important.
But there is sorting before utilization.
Sorting of household goods, sorting of rights, sorting of family intentions, building diagnostics, regional diagnostics, and sorting of management policies.
Only when these six are in place can we talk about 'what to do next'.

We have entered an era where triage is also necessary for vacant houses. That is what I feel.

There is no need to overthink the four categories of 'leaving it, managing it, utilizing it, or demolishing it'.
The point is not to leave it abandoned. To face it.
The first step toward that is 'sorting'.

▼ Thank you for reading to the end.
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▼How to Start a 'Regional Happy Business' Created Through Weekend Side Jobs and Weekday Multiple Jobs
'Your business might save the region'.
When people hear 'vacant house management', they tend to think of real estate or construction professionals.
But in fact, it is highly compatible with various industries.
In this series, we introduce 'different industries' that create unexpected chemical reactions with vacant house management.
You should be able to find something that sparks an idea within yourself in 'Different Industry x Vacant House Business'.
Why not start with 'I'm a little interested'? Your sensibility might be the first step to changing the region.

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