Abandoned houses are even lowering 'regional asset values.' The unknown relationship with land prices.

Today, I would like to delve into the topic of vacant houses from a slightly different angle than usual.
The theme is the relationship between vacant houses and land prices.

Recently, systems such as the 'vacant house tax' and 'poorly managed vacant houses' have been frequently covered in the news.

I think there are actually quite a lot of people who see that and think, 'Well, that has nothing to do with me...'

I don't own a vacant house, the vacant house in the neighborhood belongs to someone else, and honestly, it's not my business...

But in reality, you can't necessarily say that.

[Abandoned vacant houses do not end as a problem for just that one house.]

Several studies have shown that they gradually exert an influence even on surrounding housing prices and land valuations.

Why does the 'vacant house next door' affect your own asset value?

When you think about it, it's a simple matter.

If there is an abandoned vacant house, the landscape deteriorates.
Weeds grow unchecked, and the exterior walls become damaged.
Anxieties regarding crime prevention also arise.
It is said that houses with no people coming and going are prone to becoming hotbeds for mischief and suspicious individuals, and the risk of arson is not zero either.

When these factors overlap, the impression of the region itself changes. The atmosphere of 'it has somehow become run-down' is something that people looking for housing are quite sensitive to.

If demand drops, prices also drop.
As a simple market principle, that kind of trend can occur.

Figures are already out overseas

You might think, 'Even so, isn't that just a subjective matter?'
I, too, used to think that rather than vacant houses lowering land prices, vacant houses increase in areas where land prices are falling.

Here, I would like to introduce one survey from the United States.

In a survey conducted in Cleveland, there is a report that houses within 500 feet (about 150 meters) of vacant houses, tax-delinquent properties, or foreclosed propertiesdecreased in value by an average of about 9.4%.

There was a survey with a similar trend in Chicago, and estimates have emerged that just having one tax-delinquent property in the neighborhood caused the average price of surrounding houses to drop by several thousand dollars.
The closer the distance, the greater the impact, and the more time passes, the more serious it becomes, is a point common to multiple surveys.

In the UK and South Korea, it has also been pointed out that areas with many vacant houses tend to have sluggish housing price growth, and the direction shows the same trend as in the US.

Although there are differences in the depth of research depending on the country,the point that 'abandoning vacant houses can affect surrounding asset values' does not seem to be that rare globally.

In Japan, too, we are increasingly feeling the same atmosphere.

In fact, a study in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, estimates that for every additional long-term vacant house in the vicinity, the transaction price drops by approximately 2.6%, and the scope of this impact is about 50m.

Specifically, significant negative impacts have been confirmed in the 0-25m and 25-50m distance zones, but the impact weakens beyond 50m.

According to a 2023 survey by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the number of vacant houses in Japan has finally exceeded 9 million. The vacancy rate is also at its highest ever, at 13.8%.

When I listen to stories in the field myself, honestly, consultations saying, 'My house won't sell because of the vacant house next door,' are no longer that rare.

Even when walking through residential areas in the countryside, there are moments when the impression of an entire street changes suddenly if there is just one unmaintained house.
That is also why I feel that 'there is a vacant house next to a vacant house, and a vacant house behind a vacant house.'

Although the accumulation of research in Japan is not yet as extensive as in the United States, as a feeling from the field, I definitely feel that the same phenomenon is beginning to occur.

The problem is not 'vacant houses' but 'neglect'

Here, I will talk about what I most want to convey.

A vacant house itself is not a villain.
If a vacant house is properly managed, the landscape is maintained, and security risks can be significantly suppressed.
The impact on the surrounding area can also be kept surprisingly small.

The problem is not the state of being a vacant house itself, but being left neglected.
That is why I always want to use the term 'management measures' rather than 'vacant house measures'.

What the flow of policy indicates

From designated vacant houses to poorly managed vacant houses, and further to discussions on a vacant house tax, the government's response has gradually strengthened over the past few years.

I understand that this does not mean the government wants to punish owners. Rather, I feel it is closer to reality to view it as a move to protect the asset value of the entire region.

This is my personal hypothesis

Please listen to what follows as my personal opinion. It is not an official view as an association, but a hypothesis from a practitioner who has seen the field.

I believe that what will be needed from now on is not just taxes. For example, if policy shifts toward 'those who manage benefit,' such as deductions for managing a family home or systems to support the management of an unoccupied house, I think it will become a force to reduce neglect itself.

For whom does this flow become an opportunity?

The story so far is not just a problem for owners.

From the perspective of defending land prices, this is a field where new demand can be created for industries such as real estate, construction, security, cleaning, demolition, and renovation.
If you take the approach that 'managing a vacant house is a service that protects the asset value of the entire region,' the possibilities for combining the angle of vacant house management with existing businesses should be wider than you think.

For local governments as well, I think the time has come to reposition management support not just as a measure to reduce vacant houses, but as an investment to maintain regional asset values.

So,

Abandoned vacant houses are not just a problem for the owners.
They affect the house next door, the entire community, and even the next generation.

That is precisely whyI believe that what is needed is not 'eliminating vacant houses,' but 'eliminating abandonment.'I think that is the key.

If there is a vacant house nearby that concerns you, please first try looking at it from the perspective of 'is this being abandoned, or is it being managed?'
Even just doing that should change how you see things a little.

As a vacant house management specialist, I intend to continue spreading the value of 'management' throughout society, little by little.

▼ Thank you for reading until the end.
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