Why Do We Believe in Hoaxes? Learning from Past Incidents and the Mechanisms of the Human Mind to Understand Information Traps

Introduction: Why Did the Toilet Paper Disappear?

Many people will likely remember the "toilet paper and tissue paper sell-out panic" that occurred when the novel coronavirus began to spread. Paper products vanished from store shelves in the blink of an eye, and many people surely felt a sense of anxiety.

It is said that the origin of this panic was a single hoax posted on social media claiming that "paper products are manufactured in China, so they will become scarce."

Why did a single piece of baseless information move so many people and trigger a social panic severe enough to wipe products off store shelves?

In this article, to answer this simple question, we will uncover incidents that occurred in Japan in the past and the "habits" that lurk within our human minds. Let us learn together how hoaxes and rumors are born and why we end up believing them.

In fact, such panics existed long before the internet appeared. First, let us look at the basic mechanism of how rumors spread, using an incident that occurred in Japan long ago.

1. This Is How Rumors Are Made: The "Telephone Game" of the Pre-Internet Era

About 50 years ago, in 1973, there was an event in Aichi Prefecture known as the "Toyokawa Shinkin Bank Incident." This is a classic case that demonstrates how much power a hoax can have in an era without the internet.

The beginning of the incident was truly trivial. A friend teased a high school girl who had just secured a job at a credit union, saying, "Credit unions are dangerous because they get robbed." However, she misunderstood this to mean that the "management is in trouble." This small misunderstanding triggered a nightmarish "telephone game."

Because she was anxious, she consulted a relative, asking, "Is the Toyokawa Shinkin Bank dangerous?" From there, the rumor changed shape as it passed from person to person. The question "Is it dangerous?" eventually turned into a vague speculation that "it seems to be dangerous," and was further distorted into a definitive rumor that "it is dangerous." Finally, it even developed into a decisive hoax that "the Toyokawa Shinkin Bank is going bankrupt."

The backdrop to why this rumor spread so far was the economic recession across society due to the oil shock at the time. The news of the recession reported daily and the anxious conversations of adults made the idea that "a bank might go bankrupt" easier for people to imagine as something "likely to happen" in their minds. In psychology, this is called the "availability heuristic." Because society as a whole was harboring vague anxieties, people were more prone to believing negative information without questioning it.

From this incident, we can see universal laws for how hoaxes spread.

• People without malicious intent pass on information.

• Information is distorted little by little, like a telephone game.

• Social anxiety increases the credibility of rumors and accelerates their spread.

This trend is surprisingly similar to what we experienced during the toilet paper panic. Even in an era without the internet, such a commotion occurred. So, what is happening in the modern age, where everyone can instantly send and share information? Next, we will look at specific recent incidents.

2. The Internet as an Amplifier: Three Hoax Incidents in Japan

The internet, especially social media, has dramatically changed the speed and influence with which hoaxes spread. It functions as an "amplifier" of information, sometimes causing irreparable damage. Here, let us look at three representative incidents that occurred in Japan.

Kumamoto Earthquake Lion Escape Incident (2016)

　Immediately after the Kumamoto earthquake, a hoax claiming that "a lion has been released from the zoo" was posted on Twitter along with an image of a lion walking down the street. The poster's motive was a "just for fun" prank, but amidst the confusion and anxiety of the disaster, the information spread in an instant. Inquiries flooded the zoo, developing into a situation that hindered their operations.

The Joban Expressway Road Rage False Accusation Incident (2019)

As footage of the malicious road rage incident was repeatedly broadcast, a sense of 'justice' on the internet led people to identify an unrelated woman as the passenger in the perpetrator's car, exposing her name and face. A strong sense of justice and anger—the feeling that 'the perpetrator must not be forgiven'—can sometimes cloud our judgment. Once we become convinced that 'this person is suspicious,' we only look for information that supports that idea and turn a blind eye to contradictory information. This is called 'confirmation bias,' and in this incident, many people fell into this mental trap, spiraling into 'internet lynching' that destroyed the life of an innocent individual.

The Smiley Kikuchi Defamation Incident (1999–)

Comedian Smiley Kikuchi was subjected to nearly 20 years of defamation after baseless rumors were posted on internet bulletin boards claiming he was the perpetrator of a past murder case. Information once etched onto the internet does not disappear easily, demonstrating the terror of the 'digital tattoo' that continues to permanently destroy an individual's life.

Comparing these incidents reveals the structure of modern hoaxes.

Looking at these incidents, you might wonder why so many people easily believe and spread hoaxes. In fact, there is a certain 'habit' built into our brains and minds that lies in the background.

3. The Traps of Our 'Mind' — Why is the brain so easily deceived?

It is not just special people who believe in hoaxes and conspiracy theories. Our brains are equipped with shortcuts to process information efficiently, but these shortcuts sometimes become 'traps' that lead us to the wrong conclusions.

① Confirmation bias: The trap of only seeing what you want to see

In our minds, there is a strong tendency to 'only look for information that supports our own ideas and beliefs, while ignoring information that contradicts them.' This is called confirmation bias.

It is like a detective who decides who the culprit is before starting the investigation. They use a magnifying glass to examine evidence that supports their theory in detail, but deliberately ignore inconvenient evidence that might provide an alibi for that person. Our brains unconsciously do the same thing.

② Filter bubble and echo chamber: A room where only the same voices resonate

Social media has a mechanism that powerfully amplifies this confirmation bias. The social media algorithm is like a kind butler who knows your preferences inside out, but if that kindness continues, a 'room of mirrors' is created around you that only reflects your own opinions and thoughts.

• Filter bubble: The walls of this room are like invisible bubbles created based on what you have 'liked' or clicked on in the past.

• Echo chamber: Inside the room, you only hear opinions that match your own, and your own voice echoes and sounds louder.

This room of mirrors is comfortable and makes you mistakenly believe that 'your own thoughts are the common sense of the world,' but it also makes you unable to see what is happening outside the room or even that there are opinions different from your own.

③ The mind that seeks a narrative: The appeal of an easy-to-understand story

Our brains prefer a 'simple and easy-to-understand story' over a complex and difficult-to-grasp reality.

Many of the problems that occur in society are complexly intertwined with various factors. However, conspiracy theories provide a very simple and clear story. For example, a story like 'the world is a battlefield between a shadow government' trying to control the citizens and the 'warriors of light' standing up against them.'

Such dualistic narratives alleviate the anxiety that comes from the complexity of reality, giving those who believe in them a sense of exhilaration and purpose, as if to say, 'I am not just a bystander; I am a special being who knows the truth and is fighting against evil.' This compelling narrative is one of the factors that draws people into conspiracy theories.

So, if we present facts to those who believe in misinformation or conspiracy theories and point out, 'That is wrong,' will the problem be solved? In reality, the situation is more complex, and actions taken with good intentions can sometimes even have the opposite effect.

4. Why is 'debunking' counterproductive?

You may have tried to 'debunk' family members or friends who believe in misinformation or conspiracy theories by using correct information. However, in many cases, such attempts end in failure.

Author Jun Monoie, who studies this phenomenon, asks this question in his book:

'If your mother back home has become a conspiracy theorist... you might try desperately to persuade or debunk her. However, that attempt will likely only be counterproductive.'

Why is that? The reason is that for them, conspiracy theories are not just 'incorrect information,' but have become a part of their own identity and worldview. The stories they believe in are 'answers' to the absurdity of the world and serve as a foundation that defines who they are.

Therefore, having that story denied is not merely being corrected in their thinking; it is felt as if their own personality has been attacked.

When mistakes are pointed out in such a situation, people may become even more stubborn in order to protect their beliefs. This psychological phenomenon is called the 'backfire effect.' Just as a gun might backfire and hit the shooter, persuasion intended for good can make the other person even more obstinate.

Misinformation spreads easily, but once believed, it is very difficult to correct. And trying to force a correction can sometimes worsen relationships. So, how should we navigate this sea of information? Finally, let's explore some tips for doing so.

5. To navigate the sea of information wisely

To navigate the sea of information wisely without being misled by misinformation or conspiracy theories, several mindsets are important.

1. Know that 'there is no single truth.'

Documentary filmmaker Tatsuya Mori says, 'There is no single truth. There are as many truths as there are people.' Things look completely different depending on the angle from which you view them.

When the media reports something, the camera 'shows' specific things while simultaneously 'hiding' other things outside the frame. Behind the reported information, there is always an unportrayed background. Developing the habit of imagining what is 'hidden' is the first step toward not taking information at face value.

2. Pause and think: 'So-U-Ka-Na (Is that so?)

Information literacy expert Kenichi Shimomura proposes the keyword 'So-U-Ka-Na' as a mindset to avoid being misled by misinformation. When you encounter surprising information, remember these four words before you immediately believe or spread it.

• So...Sokudan suru na (Don't judge immediately)

◦ Do not judge immediately; take a breath and stay calm.

• U...Unomi ni suru na (Don't swallow it whole)

◦ Do not rely on a single source of information; compare multiple sources.

• Do...not rely solely on one side.

◦ Pay attention to opinions different from your own to avoid bias in your thinking.

• Do...not look only at one side.

◦ Consider not just a part of things, but their background and the big picture.

In conclusion

As we have seen throughout this article, the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories is not because there are special villains or a few gullible people. It is a phenomenon that occurs due to the complex interplay of three factors: the mental habits we all possess (cognitive bias), the unique information mechanisms of the modern age such as social media (information environment bias), and the fact that our attention cannot keep up with the flood of information (cognitive limits).

There is no perfect answer. The overconfidence that "I will never be fooled" may be the most dangerous trap of all.

What is important is to constantly re-examine how you engage with information and keep thinking. That is the most important skill for wisely surviving in this complex information society.