How to Use the 'Black Box Approach' to Spot Misinformation Even with Zero Expertise

Have you ever seen misinformation on social media, tried to refute it by saying "that's wrong," but ended up feeling exhausted while researching it? Actually, there is a scientific reason for that fatigue. According to the "Brandolini's Law", proposed by Italian programmer Alberto Brandolini, there is an "order-of-magnitude difference" between the energy required to create nonsense and the energy required to correct it. In this article, I will explain why we are always at a disadvantage in the fight against misinformation and how we can overcome this imbalance.

Why is the fight against misinformation so exhausting?

"Brandolini's Law," also known as the "Principle of Bullshit Asymmetry". When you first heard it, you probably thought, "That sounds complicated..." right? But the concept is surprisingly simple, and cruel.

"The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than that needed to produce it."

That's all there is to it. But this single sentence captures the truth of today's social media society.

Think about it. How many minutes does it take to line up some random numbers and tweet, "XX is bad for your health!"? It probably takes less than a minute. But what if you try to refute it? You have to look up the source of those numbers, read the original research paper, point out the statistical errors, write an easy-to-understand explanation... it's common to realize two hours have passed.

This overwhelming energy gap is the biggest reason why misinformation continues to spread.

3 reasons why the side creating nonsense has an "unfair advantage"

There are several psychological and social factors behind why Brandolini's Law works.

1. Indifference to the truth is the strongest weapon

Liars try to hide the truth, so they are cautious. But a "bullshitter" is not interested in the truth, so they don't hesitate. Their only goal is to "persuade the other party" or "impress them." Fact-checking? Logical consistency? They can mass-produce information without caring about such things.

2. The magic veil of numbers

Don't you tend to believe phrases like "According to research..." or "Data shows..."? Modern nonsense is dominated by "new-school bullshit that uses numbers and graphs to feign scientific credibility". And the troublesome thing is that people tend to have a sense of awe toward numbers and hesitate to doubt them.

Just having a graph attached makes it feel persuasive. This is a psychological weakness we all share.

3. The desperate difference in diffusion speed

Analyses on Twitter have proven that lies spread much faster and wider than the truth. The reason is clear: misinformation has "novelty" and "emotional appeal".

Information saying "XX cures cancer!" versus corrective information saying "The effects of XX have not been scientifically proven." It's clear as day which one is more likely to be retweeted.

The "Black Box Approach" you can use even if you're not an expert

If you've read this far and started to despair, thinking, "So we're doomed to be deceived forever...?" don't worry. There is a solution.

That is the "Black Box Approach".

You don't need to fully understand the contents (the black box) of complex statistical models or algorithms. Since you're not an expert, that's only natural. Instead, there are only two things you need to check.

[Check the Input] Is the original data reliable?

• Where did that data come from?

• Is there any bias in the sample?

For example, consider a study claiming, 'AI facial recognition can identify criminals!' If you look closely and find they were comparing 'police mugshots' with 'social media photos of ordinary people'... well, of course there would be a difference. It's flawed at the input stage.

[Check the Output] Is the conclusion plausible by common sense?

Even if difficult mathematical formulas are used, if the resulting conclusion makes you feel, 'Wait, that can't be right,' you can trust that intuition.

'If you take this supplement, you will definitely lose weight!' 'You will make a 100% profit with this investment!'

No matter how many numbers or graphs are lined up, if it seems strange from a common-sense perspective, it is highly likely to be nonsense.

With this 'look only at the entrance and exit' approach, even without specialized knowledge, you can spot structural flaws in nonsense without using an enormous amount of energy.

Changing how you interact with information

Just because you know Brandolini's Law doesn't mean misinformation will disappear. However, the sensitivity of your sensor for noticing, 'Oh, this might be misinformation,' will increase.

And above all, what is most important is to not try to refute every piece of misinformation.

Energy is finite. Please use your valuable time only for truly important information and misinformation that really needs to be corrected. For everything else, you also need the courage to let it slide.

'Nonsense is easy to create, but difficult to correct'

Just knowing this fact changes how you engage with information on social media. You don't need to spot everything perfectly. Just pause for a moment and check the entrance and the exit. That alone is enough.

#BrandolinisLaw #MisinformationCountermeasures #InformationLiteracy #SNSFatigue #BlackBoxApproach #FakeNews #MediaLiteracy #DigitalSociety #DisinformationCountermeasures #SmartInformationGathering