Gold, Crude Oil, and Crypto Strategy for July 27th

| Today's main event is US interest rates; will crude oil spark another fire?

Today's market looks quiet, but it's actually quite dangerous.

Crude oil has dipped for now.
Gold has also recovered slightly.
BTC is still holding its ground.

However, we cannot let our guard down as the week begins.

On days like this, it's not about 'buying because things have calmed down,'
but about checking 'whether the spark has truly been extinguished.'

The conclusion for today in a nutshell

Today's conclusion is:

The main player is US interest rates.
The supporting player is crude oil.
The dangerous characters are silver and ETH.
BTC is in durability confirmation mode.
Gold is confirming its hold on the $4,000 level.

This is my perspective.

Late last week, crude oil dipped after a sharp rise.

Brent pulled back from over $100 to the $96 range.

At first glance, one might want to think,
'I guess the crude oil risk has calmed down a bit.'

However, over the weekend, there were attacks on oil facilities near the Red Sea and rising anxiety around the Strait of Hormuz.

In other words, today is
not a day to feel relieved because crude oil dropped, but a day to watch if crude oil risk will reignite.
is.

And another important factor is US interest rates.

This week, the Fed, major US tech earnings, crude oil, and geopolitical risks all overlap.

If US interest rates rise, both gold and BTC will face downward pressure.

That is why today,
I want to look at US interest rates and crude oil together, not just the charts.

Today's overall market

The overall market today is a bit indecisive.

U.S. stocks are not in a total collapse.
However, the NASDAQ remains heavy.

There is a sense of caution regarding AI and semiconductor stocks ahead of earnings.

Crude oil dropped once.
But risks in the Middle East, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz remain.

Gold is maintaining the $4,000 level.
BTC is also maintaining the $64,000 level.

In short, today,

Stocks are unstable.
Crude oil has potential sparks.
Gold is confirming its defensive position.
BTC is confirming its durability.
Caution is still advised before jumping into ETH and silver.

That is the feeling.

Today's Asset Class Strength

Today's asset class strength is,

BTC > Gold > Crude Oil > Silver > ETH

I am looking at them in this order.

BTC is maintaining the $64,000 level and has not completely collapsed yet.

Gold is defending the $4,000 level, and there is room for a rebound if U.S. interest rates settle down.

Crude oil has catalysts, but chasing highs is dangerous as it has already been volatile.

Silver's price movement is volatile even when it rebounds.

ETH does not yet have the same sense of being a protagonist as BTC.

Today's Protagonist: U.S. Interest Rates

The protagonist today is not an asset, but U.S. interest rates.

Will gold rise?
Will BTC hold up?
Can the NASDAQ rebound?
Will high crude oil prices break the market?

Everything ultimately connects to U.S. interest rates.

Crude oil is rising.
Inflation concerns are intensifying.
US interest rates are rising.

With this trend, gold will become heavy.

NASDAQ will also become heavy.

When NASDAQ becomes heavy, it is also a headwind for BTC and ETH.

Therefore, today,
if you are looking at gold, watch US interest rates.
If you are looking at BTC, watch NASDAQ and US interest rates.
If you are looking at crude oil, watch inflation concerns.

This set is important.

Today's behind-the-scenes protagonist: Crude oil

Today's behind-the-scenes protagonist is crude oil.

Last week, crude oil was quite volatile.

There were moments when it exceeded $100, but
after that, it fell back to the $96 range.

At first glance, it looks like it has calmed down.

However, looking at the risks in the Middle East, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend,
we still cannot be at ease.

Crude oil is currently
a spark pretending to have gone quiet
.

The points to watch are,

・Whether Brent maintains the $96 range
・Whether it tests the $100 direction again
・Whether WTI holds its ground in the high price range
・Whether the Middle East situation deteriorates again
・Whether news related to the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz emerges
・Whether supply and demand factors emerge from OPEC or EIA inventory data

.

Today is not the day to jump into crude oil.

When crude oil rises again,
I will watch how US interest rates and NASDAQ react.

Today's dangerous figures: Silver and ETH

Today's dangerous figures are silver and ETH.

Silver is more volatile than gold.

When gold rebounds slightly,
silver also looks strong all of a sudden.

However, if you chase only silver while gold is indecisive,
you will usually get shaken out.

For silver,
it is enough to wait and see if gold can maintain the $4,050 level
before acting.

Be careful with ETH today as well.

Buying ETH just because BTC is holding up

is a bit premature.

ETH is still in a position where it follows BTC.

BTC maintains the $64,000 level.
NASDAQ does not collapse.
US interest rates do not rise too much.

It is fine to wait until these conditions are met.

Outlook for Gold and Silver

For gold, confirm it maintains the $4,000 level.

As long as it holds the $4,000 level,
it cannot be called completely weak.

However, to be bullish on gold,
US interest rates and the dollar need to stabilize.

The points to watch are:

・Can gold maintain the $4,000 level?
・Can it maintain the $4,050 level?
・Will the US 10-year Treasury yield not rise too much?
・Will the dollar index not strengthen?
・Will inflation concerns due to high crude oil prices not reignite?

These are the points.

Silver should be looked at after confirming gold.

It is dangerous to chase only silver when gold is not stable.

Outlook for Crude Oil

For crude oil today, rather than focusing on whether it is 'strong or weak,' I want to see
if it will reignite
.

Last week, crude oil drove the entire market.

There is a possibility of the same happening this week.

If crude oil heads toward $100 again,
the market will become inflation-conscious.

When inflation is on the radar,
U.S. interest rates tend to rise.

If U.S. interest rates rise,
it will be a weight on gold, BTC, ETH, and NASDAQ.

In other words, crude oil should not be viewed in isolation.

After crude oil moves,
how will U.S. interest rates react?

This is the main point.

Outlook on Crypto Assets

Crypto assets are centered on BTC.

BTC is maintaining the $64,000 range.

If it can hold this position while NASDAQ is somewhat heavy,
it is not bad.

However, I cannot say it is strong either.

The points to watch are:

・Can BTC maintain the $64,000 range? ・Can it recover the $65,000 range? ・Will it avoid falling below the $63,000 range? ・Can NASDAQ rebound? ・Will U.S. interest rates settle down? ・Will fund inflows return due to ETF-related news?

.

ETH should be checked after BTC.

If BTC recovers the $65,000 range,
NASDAQ does not collapse,
and U.S. interest rates settle down,
ETH will also become easier to look at.

But if BTC falls below $64,000,
I will pass on buying ETH alone.

Today's Trap

Today's trap is,

thinking that you are safe because crude oil has fallen
.

It is true that crude oil has dropped for the moment.

However, geopolitical risks have not disappeared.

The Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East.

If these areas become volatile again,
crude oil will reignite immediately.

Another trap is,

thinking that because BTC is holding up, you should also buy ETH
.

Focusing on BTC today is sufficient.

ETH can wait until after you have confirmed the situation.

Today's Strategy

Today's strategy is,

Confirm that BTC maintains the $64,000 level. Confirm that gold maintains the $4,000 level. Monitor crude oil for reignition risks. ETH after confirming BTC. Silver after confirming the direction of gold.

This is it.

What to watch in particular is,

・US 10-year Treasury yield
・Dollar Index
・NASDAQ
・SOX Index
・Brent Crude
・WTI Crude
・Middle East situation
・News related to the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz
・BTC $64,000 level
・Gold $4,000 level

.

Today is the start of the week.

Rather than betting on a direction,
it is a day to observe the initial reaction.

Key Events

Events to watch today are:

・Fed-related news
・US 10-year Treasury yield
・Dollar Index
・NASDAQ
・SOX Index
・Caution regarding US large-cap tech earnings
・Middle East situation
・Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz related news
・OPEC-related news
・EIA inventory-related data
・Crypto asset ETF-related news
・Crypto asset regulation news

These are the ones.

There is a lot of material this week.

The Fed, US interest rates, crude oil, and tech earnings.

Since these four are colliding,
it is better not to push yourself more than usual.

Things not to do today

What not to do today is clear.

・Do not assume it is safe just because crude oil has fallen
・Do not jump into BTC at high prices
・Do not buy ETH without checking BTC
・Do not pick up silver just because it feels cheap
・Do not buy gold without checking US interest rates
・Do not go all-in on crypto assets assuming a NASDAQ rebound
・Do not enter without deciding on a stop-loss position

Today is a day to check the start of the week.

There is no need to rush.

Summary for today

The gold, crude oil, and crypto asset strategy for July 27 is:

Today's main character: US interest rates
Supporting character: Crude oil
Dangerous characters: Silver and ETH
Today's trap: Thinking it is safe because crude oil has fallen
Today's strategy: Confirm BTC resilience, check gold in the $4,000 range, monitor crude oil for re-ignition risk

This is the perspective.

Today's asset class strength ranking is:

BTC > Gold > Crude Oil > Silver > ETH

This is it.

BTC is still holding up. Gold is also maintaining the $4,000 range. Crude oil has fallen, but there is still a spark. Do not jump into silver and ETH.

Do not jump in.
Observe the market reaction at the start of the week.
Watch the secondary leads: crude oil and U.S. interest rates.
If the trade goes against you, cut your losses early.

I think this is sufficient for today.

*These are guidelines as of the time of posting. Please be sure to check the latest charts, prices, and news before trading.
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.
*Please make investment decisions at your own risk.

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