For those who feel lost when told 'It's 3%': Dr. Lipkus's Risk Communication Class

1. Can you properly read the numbers on your health checkup?

Health checkup results are a bit like a report card, aren't they?

"Blood pressure," "blood sugar level," "cholesterol," "BMI"...

The numbers lined up are all looking at me with serious faces. I want to say, "Hey, please don't stare at me like that," but the numbers remain silent. Moreover, sometimes they assert themselves strongly in red text.

"Requires attention"

These three characters pack quite a punch.
It feels like a tiny judge has suddenly appeared on your health checkup paper.

But there is something strange here.

For example, suppose a doctor or public health nurse tells you, "Your risk is 3%." Now, how would you feel?

"3%? That's low, isn't it? It's almost safe," some might think, while others might feel, "Wait, 3 out of 100 people? What if I'm one of those three?" Furthermore, some might get lost in the forest of numbers, wondering, "In the first place, how dangerous is 3% in daily life?"

Even though it's the same 3%, people perceive it very differently. Although the numbers have the same face, in the mind of the person looking at them, they can become the size of a bean or a giant monster. Numbers are actually masters of disguise pretending to be quiet.

Numbers related to health appear frequently in our lives.

"Risk of developing cancer"
"Possibility of recurrence"
"Percentage of side effects from medication"
"Probability of detection during an examination"
"How many percent the risk of illness decreases if you exercise"

If understood correctly, this information can become a guide to protecting your body. However, if you receive it without fully understanding it, your anxiety may only grow, or conversely, you might take it too lightly, thinking, "Well, it'll be fine."

In other words, health risk numbers shouldn't just be presented as they are. Numbers are like ingredients in cooking. Just as you would be puzzled if a daikon radish were placed on your desk and you were told, "So, how should I eat this?", people can be troubled when numbers are handed to them as is. How they are cut, seasoned, and plated is what matters.

That is where Isaac M. Lipkus comes in.

Mr. Lipkus is a person who has researched how to communicate health-related risks in a way that is easy for people to understand. Instead of just throwing difficult numbers around as they are, he has considered things like, "How should they be expressed so the other person can grasp the meaning?", "How can we make them understandable to people who are not good with numbers?", and "Does understanding change if words or diagrams are used?"

In a sense, Mr. Lipkus is a translator of health risks.

He is someone who brings the numerical terms used in the world of doctors and researchers—such as "3%," "risk," and "probability"—closer to our everyday sensibilities. He is like an interpreter who attaches a note to a somewhat reticent messenger from the land of numbers, saying, "This is what this one means."

In this article, through Mr. Lipkus's research, we will look at why health risk numbers are difficult to understand and how they can be communicated so they reach people more effectively.

For those who have ever frozen in front of a paper after looking at health checkup numbers.
For those who have ever had a small voice in their heart say, "So?" even after being told, "It's 3%."
Welcome to Dr. Lipkus's Risk Communication Class.

Here, there is no need to be afraid of numbers.
You just need to dress the numbers in a little bit of Japanese clothing.

2. In a nutshell, who is Dr. Lipkus?

If I had to describe Dr. Lipkus in one word, he is a 'translator of health risks'.

By 'translator,' I don't just mean someone who translates English into Japanese. What Dr. Lipkus translates is something much more troublesome.

That is, the language of numbers.

For example, suppose you were told something like this during a health checkup or at a hospital.

'Your risk is 3%'

…Yes, there it is.
The silent aristocrat of the number world, Mr. 3%.

As for us, we want to ask, '3%... so, should I be happy? Should I be worried? Or should I skip the ramen on the way home?' But the number doesn't answer anything. 3% just sits there quietly as 3%. It's like a high-ranking person sitting silently in the corner of a conference room.

But the human heart is not a calculator.

Some people think, '3% is low, so I'm fine.'
Some people get anxious, thinking, 'Does that mean 3 out of 100 people? What if I'm one of those three?'
Some people get a little fog in their heads, wondering, 'In the first place, how much weight does 3% actually carry?'

In other words, even if the number is accurate, how it is perceived varies from person to person.

This is the interesting part of Dr. Lipkus's research. Dr. Lipkus is a researcher who has been thinking about 'how to express health risks so that they are easy for people to understand.' Whether it is better to convey them with numbers, words, or through diagrams and illustrations. You could say he is someone who has studied the 'culinary methods of communication.'

For example, even with the same content,

'The risk is 3%'
'It's about 3 out of 100 people'
'It's about 3 people colored in this diagram'

The way it is received changes depending on how it is said, doesn't it?

The first one, 'It's 3%,' feels like a number wearing a suit and standing there with a stiff face.
'3 out of 100 people' feels like it has descended into the human world just a little bit.
When shown in a diagram, it feels like, 'I see, that's where they are,' and you can finally grasp it with your eyes.

Dr. Lipkus is focusing precisely on this difference.

Health information doesn't just need to be correct. Of course, accuracy is important. But that alone is not enough. If the other person cannot understand it, that information is like an instruction manual inside a glass case. The contents may be excellent, but you cannot open it. You cannot read it. You cannot use it.

Dr. Lipkus's research is close to the work of gently opening that glass case.

“How can we communicate with people who aren't good with numbers?”
“How can we convey information without causing too much anxiety, but without it being taken too lightly?”
“How does understanding change when using charts and tables instead of just words?”
“How do people perceive and judge risk?”

Through questions like these, we are exploring how to communicate health risks.

So, if I had to describe Lipkus in one word, it would be this.

Lipkus is a researcher who translates the 'language of the land of numbers'—health risk—into our everyday language.

Numbers alone sometimes fail to reach the heart.
However, by changing the way we communicate just a little, numbers suddenly become much friendlier.

The expressionless '3%' starts to speak to us little by little, saying,
“It's about 3 out of 100 people,”
“Looking at this chart, it's the people right here,”
and so on.

Lipkus's research is, in that way, a study of building small bridges between numbers and people. It lights a lamp of clarity in the serious world of health information. Thinking of it that way, Professor Lipkus is quite an insightful guide.

3. Core Research Theme 1: Risk cannot be communicated by 'numbers' alone

When communicating health risks, the '%' sign often appears.

“The risk of onset is 3%.”
“The possibility of side effects is 5%.”
“This lifestyle habit reduces risk by 20%.”

…And there they are.
A parade of numbers. Everyone is standing straight, lined up properly. They certainly seem accurate. It feels like numbers in white coats are walking briskly down the hallway of a laboratory.

But here is the problem.

Are those numbers really reaching our hearts?

For example, even if you are told 'It's 3%,' how people take that varies quite a bit.

Some people think, '3%? That's low. So it seems like I'll be fine.'
Some people worry, 'That means 3 out of 100 people, right? What if I end up being one of those three?'
Some people start a little meeting in their heads, wondering, '3%—how much should I actually be careful about this?'

Even though it's the same number, completely different stories are born in our minds.

Numbers are accurate.
But numbers are a bit reticent.

If you are only told 'It's 3%,' the number itself won't say anything more. It won't tell you, 'It's on the low side, but it's not zero,' nor will it teach you, 'This is how you should think about it in your daily life.' It just stares at you. It sits on the paper, expressionless.

This is the difficulty of health risk.

Health-related risks are not answers to a math test. They involve people's anxieties, lives, families, and future choices. That is why, even if you are just handed a number, the person receiving it will be lost, wondering, 'Is this light? Is this heavy? What should I change starting today?'

This is exactly what Dr. Lipkus focused on.

Health risks are not just about conveying numbers. How you express those numbers changes how they are understood.

For example, let's compare the following three.

“The risk is 3%.”
“It's about 3 out of 100 people.”
“It's about 3 colored people in a picture of 100.”

The content is almost the same. But the impression is quite different, isn't it?

“It's 3%” feels a bit cold. It's like a number wearing a black suit that just left a business card and walked away.

When you say “It's about 3 out of 100 people,” it becomes a little easier to visualize. You can picture people in your head, thinking, “I see, a classroom of 100 people, and 3 of them.”

Furthermore, when shown a diagram with 3 out of 100 icons colored in, you can grasp it with your eyes, thinking, “Oh, about this much.” You no longer need to rent a gymnasium in your mind to line up 100 people. How helpful. The setup crew in your head is surely applauding.

In other words, risk is not just about “numbers,” but becomes easier to understand when paired with words and diagrams.

This happens often in our daily lives as well.

For instance, in cooking, it's easier to imagine “about the salt content of one bowl of miso soup” than being told “the salt content is 1.2g.” In weather forecasts, you might be hesitant if told “there is a 30% chance of rain,” but if told “it's a good idea to have a folding umbrella,” it immediately leads to action.

The same applies to health risks.

Being “correct as a number” and
“the other person being able to understand the meaning”
are similar but different things.

If you get this wrong, even if you convey important information, it won't reach the mailbox of the other person's heart. It becomes like an instruction manual left on the doorstep, getting soaked in the rain.

Dr. Lipkus's research shines a light on this “lack of communication.”

Numbers that are obvious to medical professionals and researchers can sometimes look like sudden, cryptic codes to the recipient. “3%,” “relative risk,” “absolute risk,” “incidence rate”... When these words are lined up, some people might raise a small white flag in their hearts.

That is precisely why those who convey risk need to be thoughtful.

“If expressed as a number, it's this.”
“In terms of people, it's about this many.”
“If you look at it in a diagram, it's like this.”
“In daily life, it's easier to understand if you think of it this way.”

By adding words to numbers, adding diagrams, and bringing them closer to the sense of daily life in this way, the risk finally becomes a size that people can hold in their hands.

Numbers are important. But sometimes, numbers alone can be a bit unkind.

Numbers are the framework.
Words are the clothing.
Charts are the map.
Context is the weather forecast.

Even if you are handed only the framework, you will wonder, 'How am I supposed to walk with this?' Only when you dress it in clothing, give it a map, and are told the day's weather, can a person finally start moving, thinking, 'I see, then I will do this.'

Dr. Lipkus's research does not leave health risk numbers as cold symbols. It is research that explores ways of communicating so that people can understand, accept, and think about them in the context of their own lives.

'It's 3%.'

Behind this short phrase, a lot of explanation is actually necessary.

Is that high or low?
What is it being compared to?
How much does it relate to me?
What can I do to reduce the risk?

Numbers are merely the entrance.

What Dr. Lipkus teaches is that health risk communication is not about showing numbers, but about handing over the meaning of the numbers together with them.
Even for a small number like 3%, you should properly lay out a cushion and serve a cup of explanation tea. Only then do numbers become 'usable information' in a person's mind.

4. Core Research Theme ②: Health Numeracy

There is a term I definitely want to bring up when talking about Dr. Lipkus's research.

That is health numeracy.

…Even if I say that, it feels like a big fish in katakana suddenly popped out, doesn't it?

'Health' is health.
'Numeracy' is the ability to understand and use numbers.
In other words, health numeracy is, roughly speaking, the ability to read and interpret numbers related to health and medicine.

For example, many numbers appear in hospitals and health checkups.

'Your blood pressure is 135 systolic.'
'Your HbA1c is a little high.'
'The probability of side effects is less than 1%.'
'The probability of finding an abnormality in this test is...'
'If you improve your lifestyle habits, your risk will decrease by X%.'

It's a festival of numbers.
Blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol, and probability are all running stalls. You came intending to buy yakisoba, but suddenly a stage performance on 'relative risk' and 'absolute risk' begins. There is a lot of information. A health checkup venue is quite a festival.

However, the important thing here is that the mere appearance of numbers is not a bad thing.

Numbers are very important.
They become clues for knowing the state of your body.
They also become a map for thinking about treatment and prevention.
Numbers quietly illuminate things that cannot be seen with just 'I feel a bit unwell.'

However, the problem is here.

If you look at the numbers but don't understand their meaning, you don't know how to make a judgment.

For example, when you hear that 'the risk will double,' it feels quite scary, doesn't it?

'Double!? That's terrible!'
'I can't eat anything starting today!'
'Should I be careful about breathing the air, too?'

The alarm bell in your mind might start ringing loudly.

However, if the original risk was 1 in 10,000, even if it doubles, it becomes 2 in 10,000. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean you should ignore it, but the impression changes slightly from the fear you feel just from the word 'double'.

Conversely, even if you are told 'it's only 3%,' if that 3% involves a serious illness or a major decision, it is dangerous to take it too lightly.

In other words, when you look at numbers in isolation, their expressions can be quite misleading.

'Double' looks like it's shouting at the top of its lungs.
'3%' looks like it's whispering and being modest.
But you can't understand the actual meaning without looking at the context.

This is where health numeracy becomes necessary.

This isn't just about being good at calculations.
It's not a math geek championship where you're fast at mental arithmetic, love fractions, or remember pi for no reason.

Health numeracy is the ability to understand numbers in health information in a way that you can use for your own decision-making.

For example:

'How many people out of how many does this risk apply to?'
'How relevant is it to me?'
'Who is the comparison group?'
'How much does the risk actually decrease?'
'Is this a number I should be afraid of, or one I should look at calmly?'

It is the ability to think about these things.

In a sense, health numeracy is 'number glasses' for reading health information.

If your glasses don't fit, the numbers will be blurry.

'1%' and '10%' might look somewhat similar.
Even if you hear 'the risk is halved,' you don't know what is being halved or how.
Even if you are told '3 out of 100 people,' those 3 people might feel close or far away.

As a result, you might become more anxious than necessary, or conversely, overlook important information. The numbers aren't the bad guys. It's just that the prescription of your glasses isn't right.

The important part of Dr. Lipkus's research lies here.

Instead of thinking that 'people who are bad at numbers are at fault,' it thinks that the person conveying the information should be able to make it easier to understand.

This is a very kind perspective.

For example, when a patient receives a difficult explanation at a hospital and doesn't understand it, it is not solely the patient's fault. The ease of understanding changes significantly depending on how the person explaining presents the numbers, what words they add, and what diagrams they use.

Instead of just saying 'It's 3%', say 'It's about 3 out of 100 people.'
Furthermore, show it by coloring 3 people in a picture of 100.
Explain not only whether it is 'high or low,' but also 'compared to what?'

Through these efforts, numbers become much friendlier.

It is as if the previously aloof numbers suddenly put on name tags and introduced themselves.

'Hello, I am 3%. I mean about 3 out of 100 people. It is not zero, but it does not happen to everyone. Please look at this calmly.'

If they say this much, we can listen to the conversation with a little more peace of mind, right?

Health numeracy is a very important skill for us living in the modern age. This is because health information flies in from everywhere—not just inside hospitals, but also from news, online articles, social media, advertisements, and municipal notices.

'Risk increases'
'Incidence rate decreases'
'Has a preventive effect'
'What percentage of people improved'

These words enter our eyes almost every day. We live in an era of a rain of information. Moreover, within that rain, there is clean water mixed with information that is like juice that is a bit too concentrated.

That is precisely why the ability to read numbers becomes an umbrella to protect yourself.

However, that umbrella does not have to be perfect from the start.
A little at a time is fine.
'Out of how many people does this number talk about?'
'Who is the comparison partner?'
'From what original number did this 'percentage increase' grow?'
Even just pausing to ask these questions makes it harder to be swayed by numbers.

Dr. Lipkus's research focuses on how people who receive health information understand numbers, while considering better ways to communicate.

Do not make numbers something only for those who are good at them.
Do not make medical information a code only for experts.
Do not make health risks into monsters that are scarier than necessary, nor into paper balloons that are too light.

To that end, we shape numbers into a form that reaches people's lives.

Health numeracy is like a small lifebuoy to keep you from drowning in the sea of health information. Dr. Lipkus is a researcher who has been thinking about how to make that lifebuoy so that more people can use it with peace of mind.

5. Research central theme 3: Is it easier to understand when shown with diagrams?

Now, up to this point, I have talked about how 'health risks are difficult to convey with numbers alone.'

So, what should we do?

That is where diagrams come in.

That's right. The silent aristocrats of the number world finally get an illustration assistant. From here on, the explanation of health risks becomes a little kinder. It feels like an art teacher suddenly entering a classroom where only numbers were lined up on the blackboard.

For example, suppose you are told, 'The risk is 3%.'

Just this alone is a bit hard to grasp, isn't it?
The number 3% is just sitting there quietly on the paper.

However, if you are told, 'It's about 3 out of 100 people,' it becomes a little easier to visualize.

What if there were 100 small human-shaped icons lined up, and only 3 of them were colored in?

'Oh, I see. So it's about this much.'

Suddenly, it feels like something you can grasp with your eyes.

This is because you don't have to force yourself to line up 100 people in your head. When explained only with numbers, a small gymnasium opens up inside our brains.

'Okay, everyone, line up 100 people!'
'Only 3 people, please step forward!'
'Um, how much is that out of the whole?'

The staff inside your brain is very busy. There aren't enough chairs. The microphone is screeching with feedback.

But when shown in a diagram, that work is done for you externally. You can just look at it and easily grasp 'how much it is out of the whole.' The setup staff in your brain's gymnasium can go home early today. That's a relief, isn't it?

The good thing about diagrams is that they turn proportions into a 'scene'.

The number '3%' alone is a bit abstract. It's like a small fish that slips through your fingers even when you try to grab it. But when turned into a diagram of 3 out of 100 people, it is seen as 'a part of the whole.' The number suddenly plants its feet on the ground.

Especially with health risks, this 'how much is it out of the whole' is very important.

When told 'there is a risk,' people tend to feel it is larger than it is.
When told 'there is a possibility,' people get anxious, thinking, 'Oh, will it happen to me?'
But when seen in a diagram, it becomes easier to think about it more calmly.

Of course, showing a diagram doesn't solve everything.

This is another interesting aspect of human nature.

If the diagram is too detailed, the diagram itself becomes a maze.
If there are too many colors, you'll wonder, 'What kind of festival is this?'
If there is too little explanation, you'll wonder, 'Who are these red people?'

In other words, how you use diagrams is also important.

For example, a diagram with 100 icons where only 3 are colored is a relatively easy-to-understand representation. However, if pie charts, bar graphs, line graphs, and percentage tables all appear at once, the viewer suddenly gets lost in a forest of graphs.

'This is the relative risk, this is the absolute risk, and this is the confidence interval...'

The moment you are told that, the reader in your mind might quietly close the page.

Therefore, when communicating with diagrams, what is important is to make it clear what to look at.

“In this diagram, about 3 out of 100 people are colored.”
“In other words, it doesn't happen to everyone.”
“However, it is not zero either.”
“So, let's think about it without being overly afraid, but also without ignoring it.”

When you add this much, the diagram becomes a very reliable guide.

A diagram is an interpreter for numbers.

To the number that only says 'It's 3%', the diagram speaks up from the side like this:

“In other words, it looks like this.”
“Out of the whole, it is about this much.”
“Please pay attention to the part that is colored here.”

How kind. Even though the numbers were silent on their own, with a diagram, they suddenly become good at explaining. It is as if a blunt researcher has been paired with a good listener as a moderator.

In Dr. Lipkus's research, how such visual communication relates to the understanding of health risks is an important theme. Especially for those who are not good with numbers, diagrams have the potential to help with understanding.

However, what we want to be careful about here too is that it is not necessarily the case that 'anyone can understand it the same way if there is a diagram'.

Depending on the person, there are differences in how they read diagrams.

People who are used to graphs might grasp the meaning immediately.
But there are also people who, just by looking at a graph, are reminded of their math tests from their student days and quietly withdraw in their hearts.
There are also people who might feel, 'Horizontal axis? Vertical axis? Can I go home for the day?'

That is precisely why it is important for diagrams to be simple.

Narrow down what you want to convey to one thing.
Do not use too many colors.
Add a short explanation along with the numbers.
Make it so that you can understand 'what it represents' the moment you see it.

This is similar to creating a helpful sign.

You would be in trouble if the station's information display were overly complicated, right?
If it were written like, 'The East Exit is this way. However, historically it is close to the south-southeast, and structurally it goes through the second basement floor...', you would already be feeling a small sense of despair in front of the ticket gate.

For information displays, the most important thing is not to get lost in the first place.

The same goes for health risk diagrams. What is important is that the viewer can reach the meaning without getting lost.

Information that was distant with just numbers becomes closer by becoming a diagram.
Risks that were abstract take on a visible form.
Anxiety that was vague begins to have a bit of an outline.

That is the power of communicating with diagrams.

However, charts are not a magic wand.
If used carelessly, they won't make things clearer; they will actually create confusion.

A chart is like the presentation of a dish in cooking.

No matter how nutritious a meal is, if it's served by dumping the whole pot in front of you, you'll wonder, 'How am I supposed to eat this?' But if it's beautifully plated, cut into bite-sized pieces, and served with a little explanation, you can eat it with peace of mind.

Health risks are the same.

Instead of serving the '3%' figure just like a whole pot,
break it down into '3 out of 100 people',
show it as a chart,
and gently season it with words.

By doing this, the risk finally becomes easier for people to understand.

What emerges from Dr. Lipkus's research is that when communicating health information,it is important to skillfully combine numbers, words, and charts.

Numbers support accuracy.
Words supplement meaning.
Charts help with intuitive understanding.

When these three are present, the explanation of health risks becomes much kinder. It's as if the numbers, which tend to get lost, have been given a map, an interpreter, and a guide.

You don't get it when told 'It's 3%'.

At times like that, a chart says this to you:

'It's okay. Let's make it something you can see.'

And then, the fog of numbers clears a little.
A chart in risk communication is truly a small window for that very purpose.

6. Representative research and papers I would like to introduce

As we have seen so far, Dr. Lipkus's research, in a nutshell, has tackled the theme of 'how to communicate health risks so that they truly reach people.'

So, what kind of research is there, actually?

If I were to list a bunch of paper titles here, the reader's mind might put up a 'Closed for the day' sign. Paper titles sometimes sound like long train names. The moment you start reading, 'Next is the numerical, linguistic, and visual format in health risk...', the passengers in your brain start to doze off.

Therefore, here we will look at representative research, roughly divided into 'three classrooms'.

First, the first one isresearch that considers the way of communicating risk itself.

This is like a welcome mat for understanding Dr. Lipkus's research. It says, 'Welcome to the world of risk communication.' What is handled here is the question of whether to communicate health risks using numbers, words, or charts.

For example, whether you say 'the risk is 3%,' 'it's about 3 out of 100 people,' or 'show 3 people colored in among a picture of 100 people.' Even if the content is similar, how easy it is for the recipient to understand changes.

This is as different as serving the same curry in the whole pot versus serving it on a plate with pickled vegetables on the side. Even if served in the pot, it still has nutrients. But the person eating it will think, 'Wait, I have to start from here?' Risk information is the same; just providing accurate numbers is still 'half-cooked'.

This line of research by Dr. Lipkus teaches us that 'health information needs to be not just correct, but also shaped in a way that it can be conveyed.' Numbers, words, and diagrams each have their strengths, and rather than one being perfect on its own, it is important to combine them according to the recipient.

Next, I would like to introduce research on health numeracy.

Health numeracy is the ability to understand numbers related to health and medicine and use them for one's own decisions. Here, Dr. Lipkus and colleagues focus on questions like 'How much can people understand the numbers in health information?' and 'How do understanding of numbers change judgment and behavior?'

This is quite important.

In hospitals and health checkups, numbers rush at you like the morning commute. Blood pressure, blood sugar, BMI, probabilities, percentages, risks, improvement rates. It makes you want to say, 'Please line up in order' in front of the ticket gate.

However, just because there are many numbers doesn't mean everyone can understand them correctly. Some people are good with numbers, while others have their mental shutters half-close the moment they see them.

Some people feel relieved when they hear 'less than 1%,' while others feel anxious, thinking, 'So it's not zero.' Some people turn pale when they hear 'the risk is double,' but if the original risk is very small, the way it is perceived needs to be adjusted slightly.

In other words, numbers shouldn't just be presented; you also have to consider how the recipient can read those numbers.

This research area of Dr. Lipkus is very important when considering the 'readability' of medical information. Even if a medical professional intends to explain accurately, if the patient cannot understand it, that information does not become a usable tool. Even if you are handed a magnificent map, if all the map symbols look like ancient characters, you cannot reach your destination.

Therefore, research on health numeracy can be said to be research aimed at not leaving behind those who are not good with numbers. Moving from codes that only experts can read to information that can be used for daily decisions. Dr. Lipkus is trying to build a bridge there.

And the third is research on risk communication using diagrams and pictograms.

This is a theme that is quite easy to visualize.

For example, instead of just explaining in words '3 out of 100 people,' you line up 100 small human icons and color in 3 of them. Then, the numbers suddenly become a scene.

It becomes easier to understand visually, thinking, 'Oh, it's about this much out of the whole.'

This is especially helpful for people who are not good with numbers. With just numbers, you have to calculate in your head, but with a diagram, your eyes help with the understanding first. The calculator in your brain rejoices a little, thinking, 'A helper has arrived today.'

However, diagrams are not omnipotent either.

If a diagram is too complex, it becomes a puzzle in itself. If there are too many colors or not enough explanation, a different story begins, like 'What does this red person mean?' or 'Is the blue person an ally or an enemy?'

Therefore, what we can learn from Dr. Lipkus's research is not the simple story that you should just use diagrams. What kind of diagram, for what kind of person, and with what kind of explanation you show it is what is important.

This is the profound part of Lipkus's research.

He isn't just saying 'let's put numbers into charts'; he is looking at how humans receive numbers, how they become anxious, and how they make decisions. In other words, he considers risk communication not as a mere transfer of information, but as the movement of the human heart.

Summarizing these three studies, Lipkus's work feels like this.

Information about health risks might be neatly organized numbers on an expert's desk. However, when it reaches our daily lives, it passes through various mists such as anxiety, misunderstanding, assumptions, and a poor grasp of numbers.

To clear that mist even a little, Lipkus has researched how to present numbers, how to add words, and how to use charts.

Don't end with 'It's 3%.'
Rephrase it as 'That's about 3 out of 100 people.'
Show it in a chart if necessary.
Consider how the other person can understand the numbers.
Shape it into a form that can be used for decision-making, without inciting too much anxiety or making it seem too trivial.

Looking at it this way, Lipkus's research seems like the work of putting up 'friendly signboards' for medical information.

We sometimes get lost in the numbers from hospitals and health checkups.
At those times, Lipkus's research gently puts up a sign for us.

'This number is easier to understand if you look at it this way.'
'This risk is easier to grasp if you compare it like this.'
'Before you get anxious, let's first see how much it is in the big picture.'

Numbers might seem cold.
However, if you devise ways to convey them, numbers become not tools to scare people, but allies for people to think about their own health.

Lipkus's representative research teaches us exactly that.

7. How is it useful in daily life?

Now, we have looked at Lipkus's research so far.

'Health risks are hard to convey with numbers alone.'
'Health numeracy, or the ability to read numbers in health information, is important.'
'If you use charts and words well, risks become easier to understand.'

......Hearing this, you might think it's a topic for medical professionals or researchers.

'I see, that's content for doctors at the hospital to study. I'm busy thinking about what to have for dinner tonight.'

If you thought that, please wait a moment. Lipkus's research isn't just for people in white coats. Actually, it is quite relevant to our daily lives as well.

For example, when looking at the results of a health checkup.

When you open the paper, numbers are lined up there. Blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol, BMI. The numbers look at you calmly, like materials for a company meeting. Moreover, when they slightly exceed the standard values, words like 'red ink' or 'caution' appear.

At this moment, a small gong rings in your heart.

“Warning!? Is there some kind of chaotic meeting going on inside my body?”

However, the important thing here is not to get too scared right away. Of course, you shouldn't take it lightly, but it is important to calm down and interpret it by asking, 'What does this number mean?', 'How far off from the standard is it?', and 'What should I change in my daily life?'

Professor Lipkus's research is useful in situations like this. It serves as a trigger to think, 'What kind of number is this?' instead of stopping at 'It's scary' or 'I don't understand' when you see a number.

It is also useful when looking at news and online articles.

“Doing XX doubles your risk of disease!”
“△△ reduces the risk of death by 30%!”
“People who eat □□ have a longer healthy life expectancy!”

You've seen headlines like these, right? They are quite powerful. Reading just the headline is enough to make you want to replace everything in your refrigerator right now. You want to run out to buy natto, grab some blue-backed fish, and add yogurt while you're at it.

But let's pause here for a moment.

Even if they say 'risk is doubled,' what was the original risk?
Even if they say '30% reduction,' what are they comparing it to?
Even if they say 'it's effective,' how many people were observed, and for how long?

Just by being able to think this way, you will be less likely to be swayed by health information.

Numbers sometimes shout.

“Double!”
“50% reduction!”
“In just one day!”

However, the volume of that voice is not necessarily the same as the magnitude of its actual meaning. There are expressions in the world of numbers that are like a loud-mouthed sales manager. What you need there is the attitude of asking, 'Specifically, out of how many people is that?'

This is a magic question to ask when looking at health information.

When told 'It's X%,'
think, 'How many out of 100?'

When told 'The risk is doubled,'
think, 'What was it out of how many people originally?'

When told 'It is effective,'
think, 'How much of a difference was there?'

Just doing this clears the fog of numbers a little bit.

For example, being told 'the risk of a certain disease is doubled' feels quite scary. However, if it's a story about the risk going from 1 in 10,000 to 2 in 10,000, your perception changes. Of course, it is important information, but you might not need to let your heart become a giant typhoon just because of the word 'doubled'.

Conversely, you also need to be careful about thinking 'It's 3%, so it's fine.' If that 3% relates to a serious illness, it doesn't necessarily mean you can ignore it just because it looks low. Even if a number looks small, its content can be heavy. It's like having a heavy book in a small box.

What Professor Lipkus's research teaches us is not to limit ourselves to the two choices of being 'scared' of numbers or 'ignoring' them.

Read the numbers carefully.
Look at the background of the numbers.
Think using diagrams if necessary.
Ask experts questions.
Think about how it relates to your own life.

Once you can do this, health information becomes a little easier to handle.

For example, it is also useful when receiving explanations at a hospital.

If a doctor says, 'The possibility of side effects is low,' try asking, 'When you say low, about how many people out of how many are we talking about?'
If they say, 'There is a benefit to having the test,' try asking, 'How much of a difference is there between having it and not having it?'
If they say, 'There is a risk,' try asking, 'Is that risk on the high side or the low side? How does it compare to other things?'

These kinds of questions are by no means rude. Rather, they are important confirmations for thinking properly about your own body. Health information is not a scroll held only by experts, but a map related to your life. When you don't know how to read the map, it is okay to ask.

Lipkus's research teaches us that 'it is okay to ask questions of numbers.'

Numbers are not as imposing as they look.
If you ask them, they will explain things quite well.

'Mr. 3%, how many people out of 100 are you talking about?'
'Mr. Double, what was the original amount?'
'Mr. 30% Reduction, is that a big difference?'

When you question them like this, numbers gradually become closer to everyday language.

And this is a story that also applies to the fields of employment support and welfare.

For example, when conveying information to a user, just saying 'This is how it is according to the system,' 'There is a possibility,' or 'Generally speaking, this is how it is' can sometimes be hard for the other person to grasp. What the other person wants to know is often the part about 'So, how should I think about this in my own case?'

Just like with how to convey health risks, the important thing is to make the information usable for the other person.

Replace difficult words with everyday language.
Turn abstract explanations into concrete examples.
Use diagrams and analogies, not just numbers.
Think together about 'what can be done now' as a conclusion.

This is also very important in support situations. While Lipkus's research is about medicine and health, it also provides hints for thinking about what it means to 'convey' something.

Information does not reach the recipient just by handing it over.

It is necessary to shape it so it is easy to hold, matching the size of the other person's hands. If the load is too big, divide it up. If the words are too heavy, soften them a little. If the numbers are hard to see, open a window in the form of a diagram.

Only then does the information become something 'usable' for the other person.

This is exactly where Lipkus's research is useful in daily life.

When looking at the results of a health checkup.
When receiving explanations at a hospital.
When reading health information on the internet.
When talking with family about treatments or tests.
When conveying important information to someone in a support setting.

In all those situations, we can think about 'how it is being conveyed' and 'how it is being received.'

Numbers won't take the wheel of your life.
But they can be the headlights that illuminate the road.

If those lights are too bright, too dim, or pointed in the wrong direction, we lose our way. That is why numbers need context. They need words. They need visuals. And above all, they need the consideration of wanting to communicate in a way that is understood.

Dr. Lipkus's research makes health information just a little bit kinder to humans.

When you don't get it after being told 'It's 3%',
you don't have to stop there.

'How much is that, really?'
'Out of how many people?'
'What should I be careful about in my daily life?'

Try asking those questions.

With just that small step, numbers change from cold symbols into tools for thinking about your own health. Health risk numbers are not there to scare us. They are there to help us make better choices.

Instead of being pushed around by numbers, think along with them.
I believe that is the most practical and kindest message we can take from Dr. Lipkus's research.

8. Summary: Dr. Lipkus, the person who built a bridge between numbers and people

So far, we have looked at the research of Isaac Lipkus.

Health risk numbers are accurate.
However, just because they are accurate does not mean they are always easy to understand.

'It's 3%'
'The risk is doubled'
'The incidence rate decreases'
'There is a possibility of side effects'

We often see these phrases in hospitals, health checkups, news, and online articles. But our minds are not so simple that we can just stamp 'Yes, understood' the moment we see a number. In fact, the moment a number appears, a small meeting begins in our heads.

'Is 3% low?'
'Wait, but it's not zero, right?'
'Isn't double quite scary?'
'What are you comparing it to in the first place?'
'Should I stop eating fried chicken starting today?'

A single number can make the conference room of the mind quite noisy. Anxiety is the chairperson, confusion is the secretary, and in the corner, optimism is drinking tea, saying, 'Well, it'll probably be fine.' That is the state of things.

Dr. Lipkus's research is like someone entering that very conference room and quietly tidying up the whiteboard.

'First, this 3% is about 3 people out of 100.'
'Let's compare this to the original risk.'
'If we put it in a diagram, it looks like this.'
'Let's think about it without being too scared, but also without ignoring it.'

That is how he turns numbers into a form that humans can grasp.

What is important in Dr. Lipkus's research is the perspective thatpresenting numbers is not the goal. The purpose of communicating health risks is not to surprise the other person or to look impressive with technical jargon. It is to ensure the other person understands and can apply it to their own life and decisions.

In other words, information is not 'done once delivered.'
It needs to be sized so that it can properly land in the other person's hands.

Numbers that are too large cannot be grasped.
Numbers that are too small are overlooked.
Numbers without explanation are difficult to place.

That is precisely why numbers need words. They need diagrams. They need comparisons. And above all, they need the consideration of wanting to make them understandable to others.

This is where the warmth of Lipkus's research lies.

At first glance, research on health risks and probabilities might seem like a world of cold numbers. But in reality, there is a very human question at its core.

How can people receive information with peace of mind?
How can they avoid being more afraid than necessary?
How can they avoid taking important risks too lightly?
How can they make informed choices about their own bodies and lives?

Lipkus's research addresses these very questions.

In a sense, Lipkus is the person whobuilt a bridge between numbers and humans.

The land of numbers holds accurate information.
The land of humans holds anxiety, hesitation, and the circumstances of daily life.

Those two lands seem close, yet are surprisingly far apart. The inhabitants of the land of numbers say, 'It's 3%.' The inhabitants of the land of humans say, 'How should I think about that?' If there is no bridge there, the information just waves from the other side of the river.

Lipkus tried to build a bridge across that river.

Adding the words '3 out of 100 people' to the number '3%'.

Adding context about 'what the original risk was' to the expression 'the risk increases'.

Adding visible forms like 'diagrams and pictograms' to 'hard-to-understand probabilities'.

By doing so, numbers change from cold symbols into tools that we can use.

This is not just about medicine. It is the same in work, support, education, and conversations with family.

You are saying the right thing, but it doesn't reach the other person.
It is important information, but it is too difficult to use.
You think you explained it, but the other person remains anxious.

Such things happen everywhere in daily life.

What is important at those times is not 'whether you conveyed it,' but 'whether it was in a form that could be understood.'

Lipkus's research gently illuminates that point.

Numbers are not kings that decide our lives for us.
But they can be lanterns that light the path of our choices.

However, if that lantern is too bright, it will blind you. If it is too dim, you cannot see the path. Therefore, you need to adjust it to just the right brightness. Refine the numbers with words, make them visible with diagrams, and give them meaning with context. Through these efforts, we can become a little more comfortable with health information.

You don't get it when told 'It's 3%'.
That is not because you lack understanding.
It may just be that the numbers have not yet been translated into the language of your daily life.

So, it is okay to ask these questions:

'Out of 100 people, how many is that?'
'Compared to what is it high?'
'What does it look like in a diagram?'
'In my case, what should I be careful about?'

By asking questions like that, the numbers will gradually walk toward you. The silent 3% in a suit will eventually put on a name tag and start introducing themselves.

'Hello, I am 3%. I am not zero, but it does not happen to everyone. Let's stay calm and look at this together.'

Dr. Lipkus's research is dedicated to making such conversations possible.

Health risk numbers are not there to scare people.
They are there to help people make better choices.

So that those numbers can properly reach people.
So that they do not get lost in the fog of anxiety.
So that a bridge can be built between the language of experts and the sensibilities of everyday people.

Isaac M. Lipkus is a researcher who has been steadily building that bridge in the world of health information. Adding a bit of human warmth to the coldness of numbers—that is the great appeal of Lipkus's research.

Reference Links

List of papers by Isaac M. Lipkus: Gently questioning the 'I'll be fine' mindset. A psychological stroll through understanding health risks and human relationships (https://adler-nap.com/isaac-m-lipkus)

[Paper Summary] Why do people who are close to each other hurt one another? The psychology of 'compromise' to protect relationships
(https://adler-nap.com/archives/1143)