2025/08/21 Forex Diary

Let's check the market gently again today (*‘ω‘ *)

Euro-Dollar MC #3-14

4H Cycle #1-84
It's been long enough in terms of duration, but I wonder if it will dig deeper?
Does Jackson Hole start today?
As of 16:00, it looks like it will close as a bearish candle

1H Cycle #3-112
This is also in the very late stages
Moving near the 1H Cycle starting point
To put it nicely, I'd be happy if it hit the bottom a bit more
It would be easier to buy if the 4H MA was pointing firmly downward and a trend had emerged
but it's not quite there yet (´・ω・｀)

I guess it's a bit more of a wait then

Pound-Dollar MC #3-43 or MC #1-15

4H Cycle #1-84
This is it (*‘ω‘ *)
A shape like this gives off a 'searching for a bottom' vibe, which is nice lol
So, for the latter half
I'll add a little Euro-Pound as a bonus

Euro buying trend is emerging (*‘ω‘ *)
Looking good

Dollar Index 4H Cycle is #3-38
Around the middle of the 3rd one, I suppose
Currently Dollar < Euro < Pound correlation
From here, if the Dollar goes to look for a bottom considering we are in the latter half of the MC, that would be the best scenario

Back to the topic, Pound-Dollar 1H
1H Cycle #3-112
is looking for a bottom in a good way
That said, I still can't buy it yet
But I think it has entered a period where I'm questioning the short-selling mentioned in yesterday's article
Let's be careful (*‘ω‘ *)
I like the classic style (?) of trading from near the bottom, so I will wait

Dollar-Yen MC #3-38

4HC cycle ③ - 31st bar
MC is in the second half. The daily MA shape is also messy.
The 4HC is also showing heavy upside since entering the new cycle (August 14 low).

1HC cycle ① - 122nd bar or ② - 19th bar
Looking at it, I feel the latter is more likely.
If it is MC-③ and 4HC-③, it is standard theory to definitely hit the top of 1HC②.
Therefore, I am expecting a battle around 148.10.

Gold MC 39th bar?

4HC cycle ③ - 93rd bar or new cycle???
It has been bought up since yesterday (August 20, 10:00) until now.

Looking at it on the 1H chart, it is currently being pulled back after attacking and confirming a breakout above the August 19 high (3345.500).
If we consider it as having entered a new cycle, this is a perfect buying opportunity (*‘ω‘ *)
I plan to buy while watching the 1H MA.

By the way, if it has entered a new cycle, it would be:
MC - new cycle
4HC - ① - 7th bar
1HC - ① - 30th bar

I would be happy if this is the case (*‘ω‘ *)