Let's Read the "Now" of the U.S. from the Manufacturing Index [Foreign Exchange Trading Diary 48]

Hello! This is Yuki, back from my trip and working double headers for three days in a row!

I'm struggling to make it back to Europe for my graduation trip no matter what!💪

In this article!

As I announced last time, I will talk about the other super important economic event on Tuesday, 9/2, the 🇺🇸August ISM Manufacturing PMI, along with the trades I made!

Here is today's table of contents!

Let's get right to it.

(👇If you want to read from the previous article, click here!👇)

23:00 🇺🇸August ISM Manufacturing PMI

Now, let's take a look at this economic indicator that was released on Tuesday, 9/2 at 23:00!

Actually, this Manufacturing PMI is the same type of indicator as the "Non"-Manufacturing PMI that I covered in a past article!

(👇Click here for that past article👇)

In short, the difference is whether it focuses on manufacturing or other industries.

The points you can understand from this indicator and how to interpret it are exactly the same!

50 points is the starting point; if it is higher than that, the manufacturing economy is good, and if it is below 50, it is bad. That's the way to look at it.👌

By the way, the "Non"-Manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday, 9/4, so be careful not to mix them up!👀

-Let's organize the expected world by case-

First, regarding this 🇺🇸August Manufacturing PMI, what exactly was expected to happen?

This time, it was expected to be,

Forecast: 49.0
(Previous value: 48.0)

as the forecast.

Although it is below 50, it is predicted that there will be an improvement compared to the previous time.

In this case, it is very difficult to predict how the dollar-yen will move, so I had Chappy from ChatGPT organize the movements and strategies for the dollar-yen by case.

Please take a quick look at it 👀

How was it?

While the ways it moves when it is below or above expectations are clear, the movement when it is as expected is important.

After all, there is a possibility that it will become a trend to evaluate that an improvement was seen even if it is below 50, but this is something that cannot be read.

-Advance Preparation (Trade ①)-

Now, let me introduce the preparations I made in advance here.

Please take a look at this.

Like the Euro I introduced yesterday, this one was also making a profit, so I decided to sell it once to secure the profit.

I sold the 135.21 yen I bought for 20,000 yen at 20,046 yen!

Before the index announcement, Isucceeded in making a profit of 46 yen!

However, thisrise in the U.S. dollaris said to becausedmore by thedecline in the value of the Japanese yenthan by an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar.

It is said that the trigger for this was the successive resignations of Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers.

At first glance, the resignation of LDP politicians might seem like a good thing considering public opinion, but the foreign exchange market views government changes and the resignation of key officials as politicallyunstable, so the country's currency tends totemporarily decline.

-Preparation (Trade 2)-

I am conducting another trade.

Please take a look at this.

Justbeforethe 23:00 indicator announcement, I purchased201.93 dollarsworth 30,000 yen at a rate of 1 dollar =148.56 yen.

I was very hesitant, but here is the reason I bought U.S. dollars again.

・The indicator announcement is at 23:00, but the decline had already started around 21:00

・If the result is good, I will make a profit. Even if it is bad, I bought it while it was falling, so there is a possibility of recovering

-Result (Unable to escape the recession)-

Now, regarding that 🇺🇸August ISM Manufacturing PMI, the results are as follows!

The result was48.7.

The result was slightly belowexpectations.

It's hard to see any improvement, isn't it...

It remains below 50, the threshold that divides good and bad economic conditions.

On Thursday, the non-manufacturing sector will be announced, but will this also end without seeing any improvement, just like the manufacturing sector?

Keep an eye on the future of the U.S. economy!

And with this result, it's no wonder the dollar-yen fell!

In fact, the market moved as follows.

As expected, the dollar-yen reacted with a decline.

However, this was only temporary, and by the next day, it showed a return to the price level before the indicator.

It is also important to keep a calm trading mindset without being swayed by economic events.

It is common for prices to return to their original levels the day after an indicator is announced.

I want to continue to be conscious of not cutting losses immediately if the result is bad and it drops, and conversely, selling early if a profit is made!

Conclusion

Well, today I have provided a thorough explanation along with the trades I made for one of the key economic events on Tuesday, 9/2, the 🇺🇸August ISM Manufacturing Index!

Unfortunately, I was unable to make a profit with this indicator, but since I held 30,000 yen worth of U.S. dollars, I will do my best to manage this position first!

Well then, I have a double header of part-time jobs this morning and evening, so I will take my leave early.

See you in the next article!

(👇Click here for today's picked-up past articles👇)