Future Studies of Food Service 180: How to Determine Appropriate Cost of Goods Sold for Bento Shops and Future Countermeasures

I am currently working on a reform for a bento shop. I am conducting a thorough breakdown and reform to restart a bento shop that continued manufacturing and selling without passing on price increases for several years, only to have its profits wiped out by the soaring price of rice in 2025, in order to build a profitable system.

Appropriate cost of goods sold (COGS) ratios differ based on the nature of the bento shop

I will provide a few examples.

1. Independent bento shop

This is a standard independently operated bento shop. I have been involved with many such stores, and I consider the ideal to be "bento ingredient cost + bento container + chopsticks and bag costs = 55%–58%". Since bento packaging costs are 7%–12%, averaging 8%–10%, it is better to view the net ingredient cost ratio as 45%–48%.

In 2025, due to the soaring price of rice, a situation occurred where this limit was exceeded. What used to cost 45 yen per serving of rice at 3,500 yen per 10kg jumped to 88 yen (195%), leading to a significant deterioration in profitability.

Therefore, for a bento shop with annual sales of 150 million yen or less, rather than purchasing from rice wholesalers, you should enter into annual contracts with one or more farmers for "farm-direct rice" to stabilize quality and price, and keep the rice cost per serving under 90 yen.

Bento shops with larger annual sales can reduce costs by using rice with a higher blend ratio of imported rice, such as Calrose, at the rice wholesale stage.

2. Bento department within a supermarket

It is written that when the famous Mr. Hisashi Kobayashi (former owner of Super Yamato) was running his supermarket, the bento cost ratio reached 60% because the primary goal was to attract customers.

3. Bento delivery department of a restaurant

I have been involved with several of these. When I calculated the costs, because they develop bento menus by overlapping with ingredients used in the restaurant, they used ingredients that were over-prepped or in surplus for the daily bento to reduce food waste. Therefore, the average cost ratio for the bento was 45%–55%.

Because there are delivery expenses, some shops offered a 5% discount to customers who came to the restaurant to pick up their bento. They determined prices based on a selling price that was 30 to 50 yen higher for delivery compared to in-store sales.

Business models where price pass-through is always lagging

Opportunities to pass on price increases are limited to twice a year, in spring and autumn, just like restaurants. In this case, price increases from autumn to before spring are reflected in the spring, and increases from spring to before autumn are reflected in the autumn. This repeats the cycle of profit margins dropping and then normalizing at the next price adjustment.

In the case of once-a-year price pass-through, you should implement a price increase that includes an advance profit margin of 2%–3% to recover the cost increases and cover the period until the next price adjustment. ...You might think this is difficult, so I will write down some hints for solutions.

Tips for passing on price increases while softening price resistance and maintaining high profit margins

1. Optimize rice quality rank, price, and consumption
First, let's review the basic rice. ●
Which rank of rice will you continue to use? Young people prioritize quantity, while middle-aged and older people prioritize quality. Check which customer segment you have and what the reputation of your rice is. ●


What should be the basic amount of rice per serving, and is it easy to choose additions? Some shops serve 230g, others 270g. To keep the margin of error within 10g, use a rice hopper or buy multiple 100-yen shop plastic bowls to serve a consistent amount of rice by eye. If you offer a large serving for 50 yen extra or a special large serving for 100 yen extra, you can also lower your costs. Customers do not resist paying more when they choose to add more themselves.

● Inform customers that the selling price differs due to the difference in visual product appeal
★ The tonkatsu or chicken katsu is so large it hangs over the edge. (Deliberately serve it hanging over) ★ The main dish is not a single item but a double serving. ★ The overall presentation is colorful and looks very delicious. ★ Even if each item is small, the variety of ingredients (dishes) makes it look luxurious. ★ There are various things on top of the rice as well, such as pickled plums, furikake, rolled omelets, pickles, etc.

●Set prices in the same range as identical competing products at other shops
It will sell even if it is 30 to 50 yen more expensive than the selling price of bento at other shops. However, there is one more thing to be careful about. That is, "do not cross the wall of the same price range." For example, if a competing product is 650 yen, it will sell if you sell it for 680 yen in the same 600-yen price range, provided the product quality matches that price. However, if the selling price moves up to the 700-yen range, it will suddenly stop selling. Even if it is only 10 yen, if you cross the wall, you will be disliked unless you improve the basic product quality.

●Devise ways to overcome price barriers
★ Upgrade products by enhancing their fundamental appeal.
★ Reduce ingredients that can be omitted or decreased to minimize the necessary price increase.

Product development and raising prices to pass on costs are a battle of wits with your customers. While enjoying the process, think about how you can change your offerings so that customers will still buy them even at a slightly higher price, without betraying the feelings of those who purchase them. From now on, only managers who can do this and who do not run away will be able to stay in business.

Passing on costs is also a challenge to yourself.

Reference Books

This is a Kindle book that covers and compiles the wisdom regarding menu changes over 36 years.

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