Those who are late to AI might actually have an advantage from now on.

Hello, this is Iguchi.

As a sole proprietor, I spend my days forming and testing hypotheses while exploring web marketing and sales promotion methods that can be implemented even with a small budget. In this note, I focus on

marketing terms that you might have heard of but are often used in a surprisingly vague way. Based on my own research and real-life experience, I have summarized them in the simplest language possible. I hope that even those who are not comfortable with technical jargon will be able to say, 'I see, that's what that means.'

By the way, have you ever felt like this recently?
'Maybe it's too late to enter the AI market...'

'It seems like everyone is already doing it...'

'I feel like I can't differentiate myself if I join now...'

Generative AI services are increasing rapidly, and the number of 'AI experts' has surged all at once, so before I knew it, it's becoming a 'common skill.'

Until a little while ago, just being able to say 'I can use AI' was enough to differentiate yourself, but now that alone doesn't make you stand out at all.

In fact, I think there are more people who feel they are 'late to the party.'

But there is one thing I want you to know here.
That is the concept of the 'Hype Cycle'.

When you feel 'it's too late,' the phase has actually changed.

New things in the world don't just become popular on a whim.

In fact, in many cases, they follow the flow of 'excitement → slump → establishment.' The 'Hype Cycle' is a way of organizing this.

The Hype Cycle was proposed by the US research firm Gartner, and it is a graph showing the changes in expectations (hype) from the time a new technology or concept appears in the world until it truly takes root in society.new technology or concept appears in the world until it truly takes root in society is what it is. Simply put, I understood it as

'a diagram of the flow of how much people get excited, how much they get disappointed, and how things eventually settle down when something new comes out'.This cycle is broadly composed of five phases.

1. Innovation Trigger: The period when a new technology or service has just been born. It is the stage where expectations begin to rise, thinking, 'Something amazing has been created!'

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: The period when it is picked up by the media and public expectations reach their peak. Dreams are talked about extensively, saying, 'This will change the future!'

3. Trough of Disillusionment: The period when people face the gap with reality, thinking, 'Huh? It's not as good as I thought,' and a sense of disappointment spreads. Many people stop paying attention.

4. Slope of Enlightenment: The period when people overcome the Trough of Disillusionment and begin to re-evaluate the parts that are truly useful and valuable. Practical ways of using it gradually become visible.

5. Plateau of Productivity: The period when the technology matures, its value is widely recognized, and it becomes used as a matter of course. It brings stable productivity.

If you look at it calmly, it's just the wave of human emotion itself, isn't it?

Let's use something familiar as an example! I tried remembering the 'Tapioca Boom'

These five phases might not click if I just use technical terms suddenly.

So, if we think about it using the 'Tapioca Boom' that was familiar to us, I think it will make sense.

• Innovation Trigger: Tapioca milk tea enters Japan from Taiwan as a new drink. It becomes a topic among some people, saying, 'It's chewy and delicious!'

• Peak of 'Inflated Expectations': A huge trend on social media like Instagram! Tapioca shops popped up all over Harajuku, with long lines forming. It became such a fever that people even said, 'I can't live without tapioca!'

• Trough of Disillusionment: 'It's everywhere now and I'm bored of it,' 'It's a hassle to wait in line,' 'Honestly, it's high in calories...' The excitement cooled down rapidly. Many shops closed one after another.

• Slope of Enlightenment: Although the temporary boom passed, truly delicious shops and those that established themselves as staples survived. Diverse flavors and arrangements appeared, and its value was re-evaluated.

• Plateau of Productivity: It became easily available at convenience stores and supermarkets, and fully established itself as one of many cafe menu items. Even without the fanatical hype, it maintains stable popularity.

What do you think? When you think about it in terms of tapioca, doesn't the hype cycle become a bit easier to visualize?

It makes you realize that new things always have this 'wave of expectation and disillusionment.'

Where is AI right now?

This is the most important point.

Current generative AI has undoubtedly passed the 'peak (inflated expectations)' and is in the stage of starting to enter the 'trough of disillusionment to slope of enlightenment.'
・It's not as profitable as I thought
・There are too many tools and I don't understand them
・How should I actually use it?
These voices have increased tremendously, haven't they?
This is exactly the 'sign of the trough of disillusionment.'

What will happen from here?

What is important here is that 'the axis of differentiation changes.'
Until the peak period, 'whether you can do it' was the value.
・I can use AI
・I can generate images
・I can automate
Just this was amazing enough.
But from now on, it's different.

Being able to do it is a given.
'Efficiency' is becoming the norm.

This means that 'being able to be efficient' will no longer be a point of differentiation.

From here on,
・How to use it
・What angle to use it from
・Who to use it for
・What kind of person is using it
This will become the value.

In other words, the real competition starts here

If you think about this calmly, you'll realize that the game has changed to one where being a latecomer is advantageous.

Why is that?

・The tools are all out there
・The information is all out there・The failure patterns are also visible
That is precisely why you can choose 'where to compete.'

What will be required from now on is the 'human element'

From now on, these elements will be effective.
・Angle (what perspective you convey it from)
・Idea (how you combine things)
・Personality (who is saying it)
Even if you use the same AI, 'who uses it and in what context' will change the results completely.

This will be the competition.

'Being late' is actually an opportunity

If you feel like you're 'late to AI...' right now, you're actually in a good position.

Because
・You haven't made wasteful investments
・You haven't been swayed by excessive expectations
・You are in a phase where you can look at it calmly

From here on, it will definitely become

not a 'skill competition' but
a 'competition of editing ability and human power.'

Summary

AI is not over.
It's just that the phase has changed.

From an era where 'those who can do it win' to an era where 'how you use it makes the difference'

And to an era where you are chosen by 'who does it.'

If you thought it was 'too late,' that might be a sign that you've just reached the starting line.

How will you use it from here?
Don't you think that's a much more interesting competition?

New technologies and trends will continue to appear one after another.

Each one of them, like the tapioca boom, will repeat the waves of expectation and disillusionment while settling into society (or disappearing).

I felt that knowing this hype cycle allows you to not only be swayed by the trends in front of you, but also to view things from a step back.

For us sole proprietors and freelancers, it is important to always keep our antennas up for new information, but I was reminded that the ability to discern the 'root' and 'waves' of that information is just as important.

Thank you for reading until the end.

I would be happy if this article led to a small realization like 'I see, that's what it was!' or a hint for your ideas.

Following me would be a great encouragement.
I will follow you back as well ^^