[ATH] Accumulate 17 fWAR: Who Are the Core Players? [Offseason Outlook Part 1]

Thumbnail photography: Mo

Accumulate 17 fWAR for next season

Theoretically, a team of only replacement-level players would win 48 games. Using this as a baseline, how many wins (how much fWAR) do we need to add to reach the playoffs?

Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 2022, the playoff team with the fewest wins was the 2023 Marlins with 84 wins (the threshold was 86 wins in 2022 and 2024), and the team with the most wins to miss the playoffs was the 2024 Diamondbacks with 89 wins (in 2022, the Brewers had 86 wins, and in 2023, the Mariners had 88 wins).

In other words, according to calculations on paper,the minimum threshold to reach the playoffs is 84 to 86 winsandwith 90 wins, you are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs.

Now, what is the current situation for the Athletics?

The Athletics' team fWAR this season is 25.1, an increase of 19 wins compared to last season. That is more than triple the 7.6 from 2023 👏

To reach the minimum threshold of 84 wins, an additional 10+ fWAR is needed, and if we aim for the safe threshold of 90 wins,an additional 17 fWAR is required.

External reinforcements cannot be expected

The first method that comes to mind for accumulating WAR isexternal reinforcements.

However, the Athletics are hardly an ideal destination in any sense, and they have beenstruggling with reinforcementsfor the past two years.

For example, in 2023. Unlike 2022, when they used young players acquired by trading away core players as their reinforcements, in 2023 they signed veterans during the offseason.

However, the combined fWAR of the eight new additions (Lucchesi, Fujinami, Familia, May, Jace, Piña, Aguilar, and Aledmys) was -0.6.

In 2024, they made eight new signings (Wood, Despaigne, Alexander, McFarland, Adams, Davis, Toro, and the Emperor), which was slightly better, marking an fWAR of 2.3.

After leaving disastrous results over the past two years, it is unknown how many free agents they can attract this offseason. The front office has already admitted that they are likely to be avoided by free agents, partly because they will be using a minor league ballpark in Sacramento as their home base starting next season.

Therefore, we cannot expect a significant increase through external reinforcements.

The way to accumulate WAR: Establish core players

Another quick and effective way to accumulate WAR is toestablish core playerswho can generate a massive amount of WAR on their own.

The Athletics recorded a significant increase in team fWAR this season, rising from 7.6 last year to 25.1. The reason for this lies in the rapid growth of existing players.

Rooker improved from 2.1 to 5.1. Lawrence Butler went from -0.2 to 3.3. JJ Bleday went from 0.4 to 3.1. Shea Langeliers went from 0.7 to 2.0. Mason Miller went from 0.7 to 2.3.

In addition, other players who recorded an fWAR of over 1.0 emerged, such as rookie Max Schuemann, Rule 5 addition Mitch Spence, and second-year newcomer Osvaldo Bido.

In terms of potential, there are many players who still seem promising, and even if it's not at the same growth rate as this season, I think many players will continue to improve their performance.

Having core players emerge from this group who can produce even greater value is what the Athletics need.

As mentioned above, we cannot expect much from external acquisitions. The Athletics will likely have to cover the majority of the 17 fWAR needed through the growth of their own players.

Now, the current core player for the Athletics is likely Rooker, who recorded an fWAR of 5.1.

There are only 21 players in the league this season with an fWAR over 5.0. One of them is our own Rooker.

However, Rooker is already 30 years old. It is an age where decline could start, and there is a good possibility that this season, in which he recorded 39 home runs and a 164 wRC+, will be his career high.

In other words, we need to produce core players other than Rooker as soon as possible.

Following Rooker, there are also Butler, Langeliers, and Bleday, who were sometimes referred to as the Core 4 this season.

Of these, if Butler can maintain his hitting from the second half of last season throughout the entire season, he should be able to fully establish himself as a core player. Bleday's center field defense is tough (OAA -3, DRS -19), so it might be too much to ask for more. If Langeliers can just improve his defense, we can expect further gains.

So, are there any other players besides those mentioned here who could become core players?

Jacob Wilson

The first candidate that comes to mind is shortstop Jacob Wilson.

Wilson joined the team as the 1st round pick (6th overall) in the 2023 draft. In his first full season this year, he mainly stood at the plate for 226 at-bats in AA and AAA, showing an astonishing wRC+ of 200, and made his major league debut.

His batting average in the minors this season was .433, and he is expected to be a hit maker comparable to Luis Arraez (Padres). In addition, his shortstop defense is highly rated, and his good defense, inheriting the genes of his father Jack, who was a master fielder, is also a strength.

However, he struggled a bit at the MLB level where he debuted. His batting average remained at .250, his wRC+ was 86, and he also slumped in defense with an OAA of -2.

However, he has not even been in the pros for two years yet. Various projection systems are also calculating figures that place high expectations on Wilson.

In particular, Steamer projects a solid performance of wRC+ 116, a defensive contribution of 6.2, and 3.1 fWAR. Even with these projected values, his batting average is .284, meaning Wilson's natural hit-producing skills have yet to fully bloom. If he can replicate the hitting prowess he demonstrated in the minors, he will be able to be counted as a core player.

The defensive ability that stagnated after his debut might also be affected by mistakes on four balls with an estimated success rate of 80% or higher. Due to the small sample size, simple errors have a significant impact on OAA.

Also, there are occasional missed plays on balls at the edge of his range, so it is certain that there is still room for improvement. Even so, since he marked +0.3 in the minor league defensive metric DRP (Baseball Prospectus), I believe he will be able to provide value on defense without any issues.

Tyler Soderstrom

Second-year player Tyler Soderstrom also left his mark this season.

Although he struggled in his 2023 debut year with a wRC+ of 34 in 45 games, he improved significantly to 114 this season. His xwOBA of .348 was second on the team, trailing only Rooker and surpassing even Butler.

He was particularly impressive after June 9, when he had a collision with Yusei Kikuchi. He hit 8 of his 9 home runs this season during that period, with a wRC+ of 127. The roughness that was an issue was also improved, with a strikeout rate of 19.3%, showing he has turned a corner.

If Soderstrom can maintain this hitting power from next season onwards, I think it is possible for him to grow into a core player like Matt Olson.

In terms of value, his OAA -3 defensive ability is holding him back, but Soderstrom's first-base defense has received good reviews from the coaching staff. Since he looks quite capable even when watching him, I would like to hope for an improvement in his metrics.

Zack Gelof

Gelof fell into a sophomore slump this season. A complete turnaround from 2023, when he earned 2.7 fWAR in 69 games; his wRC+ dropped from 132 to 82, and his fWAR was halved to 1.4. It was a disappointing season, especially since he showed performance that led to expectations of him being a next-generation core player in 2023.

Even so, the reason for having expectations for Gelof is his high ceiling.

Even though he was in a slump this season, he hit 17 home runs, so his power tool is certain.

What is even more noteworthy is his high defensive ability. In an Athletics team with low defensive ability, Gelof demonstrated high defensive ability at second base with an OAA of +2. Furthermore, along with his baserunning contribution of 4.3 BsR from 25 stolen bases, these are the factors that allowed Gelof to retain value even when his hitting was in a slump.

This offseason, Gelof plans to work on improving his contact, after recording an MLB-worst 34.4% strikeout rate. If this succeeds, he should become a player who can bring significant value to the team once again.

Honestly, it is certain that Gelof, who can combine power tools with defensive and baserunning contributions, is the number one candidate for a core player. I think Gelof's growth will have a major impact on the team's trajectory.

In future articles, I plan to cover the offseason moves made so far, realistic proposals for external acquisitions, and the Athletics' relocation to Sacramento. Thank you for your support.