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The One That Got Away: Overestimation of Forgone Alternatives as a Hidden Source of Regret

Daniel Feiler [email protected] and Johannes Müller-TredeView all authors and affiliations

Volume 33, Issue 2

https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976211032657

Abstract
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References
Supplementary Material

Abstract

Past research has established that observing the outcomes of forgone alternatives is an important driver of regret. In this research, we predicted and empirically corroborated a seemingly opposite result: Participants in our studies were more likely to experience regret when they did not observe a forgone outcome than when it was revealed. Our prediction drew on two theoretical observations. First, feelings of regret frequently stem from comparing a chosen option with one’s belief about what the forgone alternative would have been. Second, when there are many alternatives to choose from under uncertainty, the perceived attractiveness of the almost-chosen alternative tends to exceed its reality. In four preregistered studies (Ns = 800, 599, 150, and 197 adults), we found that participants predictably overestimated the forgone path, and this overestimation caused undue regret. We discuss the psychological implications of this hidden source of regret and reconcile the ostensible contradiction with past research.

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Open Data
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Preregistered

All data and materials have been made publicly available via ResearchBox and can be accessed at https://researchbox.org/322. The design and analysis plans for the studies were preregistered on AsPredicted. The preregistrations are also available in the ResearchBox. This article has received the badges for Open Data, Open Materials, and Preregistration. More information about the Open Practices badges can be found at http://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/badges.

Transparency

Action Editor: Leah Somerville

Editor: Patricia J. Bauer

Author Contributions

D. Feiler and J. Müller-Trede contributed jointly to the study design, data collection, data analysis, and writing and editing of the manuscript. Both authors approved the final manuscript for submission and contributed equally to this article.

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Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

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