Our FutureFirst™ service gives you 24/7 access to Superforecaster insights on dozens of newsworthy questions.
With a subscription to FutureFirst you have access to dozens of daily updated forecasts
plus qualitative analysis by Good Judgment Inc’s Professional Superforecasters.
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.
That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
See our Case Studies for additional examples of organizations using Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better decisions.
Financial Times (July 2026) (*requires access to Monetary Policy Radar)
Writing for the Financial Times’ Monetary Policy Radar, data journalist Joel Suss tested whether an AI forecasting model could beat the market at predicting Federal Reserve rate decisions. The model pulled level with the market but never ahead, largely because it anchored to the consensus already priced into sources like CME FedWatch. What the model could not reproduce is the judgment that sets Superforecasters apart: knowing when to step away from the crowd, and by how much.
Case in point: When Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 and futures swung toward a Fed pivot, Superforecasters saw no policy signal behind the move and barely adjusted. They were right, and the market corrected its overreaction later. That discipline is where Superforecasters continue to hold an edge.
Washington Post (27 March 2026)
Most people make forecasts based on gut instinct and headlines. Superforecasters do something different: they follow a disciplined process, combine perspectives across a team, and keep score so they actually get better over time.
Good Judgment’s CEO Dr. Warren Hatch sat down with Washington Post to discuss what that process looks like in practice, how AI fits into the forecasting workflow, and why prediction markets and Superforecaster teams approach the same problems in fundamentally different ways.
The New York Times (February 2026)
While exploring prediction markets, professional economists, and the future of forecasting, this NYT article says, “It may also be true that neither individual experts nor a collective of thousands are the best at predicting the future. Over the past decade, a group called Good Judgment has developed a model of selecting people with good track records of figuring out what will happen.”
Our CEO Dr. Warren Hatch discusses why Superforecasters have an edge when the data is sparse and the environment is in flux.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.